
(Issue No. 17, September 1992)
A Project of the Federation of American Scientists Fund Featuring Congressional actions on conventional arms sales and weapons proliferation. FAS Arms Sales Monitoring Project The ASM is produced and edited by Lora Lumpe, assisted by Ann Walsh. It is available from the FAS Fund at 307 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 [phone (202) 675-1018] at a cost of $20 per year (6-8issues). Publication and distribution of the ASM is supported by The Ploughshares Fund, The John Merck Fund and the Winston Foundation for World Peace. (editorial) Congress Should Defer F-15, F-16 Decisions In one day the Bush Administration proposed to Congress to sell nearly $15 billion of America's most advanced combat aircraft and supporting infrastructure to Third World countries. To put this in perspective, that's three times the amount of weapons sold to the Third World by the Soviet Union (the world's second largest arms merchant) in all of 1991. The deals---a $5.8 billion sale of F-16s to Taiwan and a $9 billion sale of F-15s to Saudi Arabia---are currently undergoing a mandatory Congressional review and can be blocked by a two-thirds majority in both cham-bers. However, they are meeting with scant opposition. The elections, the recession, post-Cold War arms industry lay-offs and aggressive lobbying by the defense industry, have conspired to make this huge amount of arms trafficking mundane and non-controversial. Last November two-thirds of the Senate signed a letter expressing concern over an F-15 sale to Saudi Arabia. They noted their "profound anxiety that such a shipment of arms may be contemplated" while the peace talks continued. The talks are still under way and are making real progress, but not a single Senator has introduced a resolution to block the sale. In the House, 260 Representatives sent a letter to President Bush in April expressing their concerns about the sale. Now, only 35 stalwart Members are on record opposed. The Administration was so confident of Congressional acquiescence to these once-controversial sales that it by-passed the traditional 20-day "pre-notification," and with Congress scheduled to recess on 5 October, it has even forgone the 30 "in session" days normally provided. In effect, Congress has just over two weeks to weigh the implications of, and act on, these sales, while at the same time passing several pending bills. This same Congress, silent now on massive arms sales, passed a law last year calling for U.S. leadership in restraining arms sales to the Middle East. Yet it's difficult to imagine actions more detrimental to efforts to curb global arms sales than these two massive deals: As a direct result of the sale to Taiwan, China's future participation in arms trade control talks initiated by the U.S. last year is in doubt. And with the $9 billion sale of top-of-the-line aircraft to Saudi Arabia, U.S. credibility in seeking to prevent Russian, Chinese and European sales to Iran and other countries is greatly diminished. In this election season, everything---national security, foreign policy, long-term economic health---is being subordinated to "jobs now". Nothing more clearly demonstrates the political nature of these deals than President Bush announcing them at campaign rallies at the production plants. Others have acted to politicize these sales, too. Candidate Clinton supports both, also in an apparent effort to win Texas and Missouri votes. And powerful Members of Congress from these and other states with significant arms industry---and with reelection anxieties of their own---have lobbied hard in Congress for these sales. Members that in the past have voted on the side of restraining Third World arms races now remain silent, mindful of sabotaging their colleagues' (or Presidential candidate's) election bids. Congress clearly doesn't have the political will to vote these sales down now, but they could vote to delay consideration until next year. In the afterglow of the election, Congress could then take the time necessary to thoroughly debate the foreign policy and national security implications of these decisions. If these sales are a good idea now, they will still be a good idea then, and arms industry claims notwithstanding, the production lines for these systems will still be open. And, if the sales are mainly politically motivated now, they will be less so then. In addition, procedural changes must be made to prevent a recurrence of this situation, where Congress and the public have insufficient time to consider issues of tremendous consequence. At a minimum, the 30 calendar-day notification period called for in the Arms Export Control Act should be changed to 30 in-session days.---L.L. Sales In Progress Helicopter gunships to Seoul 28 July---The Pentagon tells Congress of its intention to sell 37 AH-64 Apache helicopters, 775 "Hellfire" missiles, 8 spare T-700 helicopter engines, night vision devices and chaff dispensers to South Korea, in a deal worth $997 million. Warships on loan to Taiwan 4 August---In a $3.94 million deal, the Pentagon proposes to lease three Knox class frigates to the Taiwanese Navy under a five year agreement. Taiwan F-16 Deal 14 September---The Pentagon sends Congress formal notification of its plan to sell 150 General Dynamics F-16A/B fighters and associated equipment to the Coordination Council for North American Affairs (a front for Taiwan, made necessary under the terms of the United States' formal recognition of the PRC). In addition to the aircraft, 40 spare engines, 900 Sidewinder and 600 Sparrow air-to-air missiles, 500,000 rounds of ammunition, spare parts, training and logistics support will be sold, in a deal totalling $5.8 billion. (General Dynamics and General Electric engine division are reportedly lobbying to have the sale changed to the more capable and expensive F-16C/D models, for which GE makes the engines.) Congressional activity prompted sale While President Bush has been widely criticized for making the F-16 sale in order to win votes, members of the Texas Congressional delegation initiated and pressed for the sale. According to a report in the Washington Post on 4 September, Rep. Joe Barton (Republican from the Texas 6th District where the F-16 is produced), requested a White House review of U.S.-Taiwan arms sales policy in mid-July. By the end of the month the President had publicly announced that he was reconsidering the 10-year ban on exports of sophisticated weapons to Taiwan, and an inter-agency review supporting the sale was completed by late August. Meanwhile, Barton, along with his Democratic Texas co-delegate Rep. Pete Geren lined up 101 Members of Congress in support of the sale in a letter to the President. Most influential in pushing for the sale, however, was Democratic Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, the influential Chairman of the Finance Committee. He called for a revision of what he termed the "outdated" policy toward Taiwan and China, saying "A world without the Soviet Union is a world in which Communist China's military strategic value to the United States is virtually nil." Thus, he argued, there is no longer any reason to accommodate China's demand that the U.S. recognize it as the legitimate government of Taiwan and forgo arms sales to that lucrative market. As of 25 September, there is no on-the-record Congressional opposition to the F-16 sale. No resolution to block the sale has been introduced and no hearings to review the policy implications of it have been held. ---box--- The Chinese government claims that the F-16 sale violates U.S. obligations under a 1982 Sino-American agreement. The U.S.-China Joint Communique of August 17, 1982 reads in part: "[T]he United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends to reduce gradually its sales of arms to Taiwan, leading over a period of time to a final resolution." U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan 1982-1992 FY 1982 $599 M FY 1983 $774 M FY 1984 $777 M FY 1985 $754 M FY 1986 $738 M FY 1987 $719 M FY 1988 $700 M FY 1989 $611 M FY 1990 $659 M FY 1991 $640 M 1992 (pending) $6,387 M Could you explain that again? When asked how the F-16 sale could possibly be considered consistent with the language of the U.S.-Chinese communique, Acting Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger explained: "The 1982 communique with the PRC called for restraint on arms sales to Taiwan. This decision continues to demonstrate the restraint we have shown since signing the communique. We have always reserved the right to replace obsolete, inoperable and out-of-production equipment with current production models. That is what we are doing in this case." When pressed further on how the $5.8 billion deal meets the communique's call for a gradual reduction of arms sales to Taiwan on both qualitative and quantitative grounds, Eagleburger replies: "I don't want to get into a numbers game with you. We have lived up to the communique, and as I have told you, the President has said this decision does not change our commitment to the three communiques....Looking at the past decade, it is clear that our policy has worked. It has promoted stability, security and peace across the Taiwan Strait, which is in the interest of all concerned. The President's decision will contribute to continued stability and therefore provide further basis for the rapidly growing exchanges between Taiwan and the PRC." Huh? The immediate fall-out Following announcement of the sale, China said it would not take part in the next meeting of the Permanent Five members of the U.N. Security Council on controlling "destabilizing" arms transfers. China also threatened to discontinue Sino-American cooperation in the U.N. Security Council; to cut off Chinese imports of American wheat; and to levy punitive tariffs against U.S. imports. ---end boxes--- Saudi F-15 Sale 14 September---Congress receives formal notification from the Pentagon that the Bush Administration plans to offer Saudi Arabia 72 F-15 "XP" aircraft in a deal worth $9 billion. The F-15XP is the F-15E "Strike Eagle" with somewhat down-graded avionics and munitions. Because of its bombing capacity, the F-15E has never before been exported to any country. The sale also includes: 24 spare engines, advanced navigation and targeting pods for 48 of the 72 aircraft, 900 Maverick air-to-ground missiles, 300 Sidewinder and 300 Sparrow air-to-air missiles, 600 cluster bombs, 700 laser-guided bombs, spare parts, technical documentation, technical and logistics services and training. Faint Congressional opposition While substantial Congressional resistance to this sale existed through the summer, only a core of opposition on arms control grounds now remains. Aggressive lobbying by the Missouri delegation---most notably House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt and Senator Kit Bond, the acquiescence of Israel and its lobbyists to the sale, and the backing of Presidential candidate Bill Clinton, have all acted to weaken Congressional resolve against the deal. In the House, Rep. Howard Berman remains a steadfast opponent. He, along with Reps. Mel Levine, Bill Green, Nita Lowey, Romano Mazzoli and Foreign Operations Subcommittee Chairman David Obey, introduce a resolution of disapproval (H.J.Res.548) two days after Congress is notified of the sale. By 25 September, the resolution had garnered 29 co-sponsors. In the Senate, opposition to the sale is even more muted. On 15 September, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Claiborne Pell sends a letter to acting Secretary of State Eagleburger, mildly protesting the lack of customary 50-day notification and consultation on the sale. Because of this, he requests the "the immediate preparation and early submission, in complete detail, of the information specified in subparagraphs (A) through (P) of Section 36(b)(1) of the Arms Control Export Act." This includes, among other things, an analysis by the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency of the sale's con-tribution to a regional arms race and the extent to which the sale would adversely affect U.S. arms control policies. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing on the sale on 29 September, with governmental and expert witnesses, but as of 25 September, no one in the Senate had introduced a resolution to block the sale. ---box--- Compensation for Israel Following announcement of the Saudi sale, the New York Times reported (15 Sept.) that negotiations for compensatory security assurances to Israel have been underway for two weeks. The package of off-sets reportedly includes greater access to U.S. satellite intelligence; increased pre-positioning of U.S. military stocks in Israel; and a long-term commitment to Israel's annually legislated $1.8 billion in military grant aid from the U.S. In addition, rather than buying more high tech American weaponry, Israel reportedly wants the technical information to allow them to build and modify the equipment themselves. ---box--- F-16 Sale to Greece 18 September---The Pentagon formally notifies Congress of its plan to sell Greece 40 F-16C/D fighters, 10 spare engines and 40 sets of LANTIRN navigation and targeting pods for $1.8 billion. In late August the Greek National Defense Board determined that the Greek Air Force needed these 40 aircraft to counter the 40 F-16s which the U.S. sold Turkey in March. Sales to Turkey and Taiwan 21 September---Congress is notified of a $161 million sale of 12 anti-submarine warfare helicopters to Taiwan. On the following day, the Pentagon tells Congress it intends to sell Turkey 20 AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) for its F-16 aircraft. The sale is worth $17 million. Notes From Hearings Industry on Arms Exports & JOBS 6 August---The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on International Economic Policy holds a hearing on "the link between U.S. aerospace exports and jobs." While the focus of the hearing is ostensibly commercial aircraft exports, Subcommittee Chairman Sam Gejdenson supplies a friendly forum for industry witnesses to make their case for greater government assistance in exporting military aircraft, as well. Testifying are Don Fuqua, President of the Aerospace Industries Association; John Hayden, VP of the Boeing Co.; and Marc Barthello, Director of International Affairs at United Technologies Corporation. Fuqua notes the significant drop in aerospace employment since 1989, with most cuts occurring in the military sector. "With domestic military spending expected to continue downward, the growth area of our business and hence a key factor for maintaining American jobs in our industry will be civil exports." He later emphasizes, however, the importance of military aerospace exports. Due to the overcapacity of military aircraft industries around the world, a shake-out among the major producers is inevitable in the next few years, he says. "Who loses the most jobs and productive capacity, will depend upon success in export markets. That means that competition over the next half decade will be fierce. In turn, it means that the U.S. government and industry will have to find better ways to work together." Both Fuqua and Barthello have plenty of suggestions as to how the government can help industry get a bigger piece of the shrinking pie. Congress should provide additional credit and financing means to enhance exports through the Ex-Im Bank and through the creation of an arms sales financing facility. Congress should also support the President's initiative to eliminate recoupment fees on all aerospace exports. Recoupment fees, Barthello says, can be as much as 25 percent of the price of some products, making U.S. weapons uncompetitive on a cost basis. Barthello commends the State Department on the job overseas embassies are doing to help arms sales business. "We are very pleased that the State Department has directed U.S. embassies to actively promote U.S. commercial and military business interests abroad. We often use embassy services as an important in-country support to our activities in many countries." Likewise, he lauds recent DOD cooperation with aerospace industry in marketing at international air shows. ---box--- Congress May Un-do Pentagon Air Show Policy Prior to June 1991, U.S. manufacturers of military aircraft paid the costs of leasing, transporting, insuring, operating and maintaining Department of Defense weapons displayed at international marketing shows. Starting with the 1991 Paris Air Show, however, industry has been permitted to borrow Pentagon aircraft---and in some cases military personnel---for display at these shows at no cost. But growing public and Congressional concern over the $500,000 to $1,000,000 expenditure of tax-payer funds per show has resulted in legislation to forbid the use of Pentagon money to subsidize such marketing activities. In the House, Rep. Howard Berman attached an amendment to the FY93 DOD authorization bill to block the practice (see ASM no. 15 p. 4), and the FY93 foreign aid appropriation bill contained a similar prohibition (see ASM no. 16 p. 5). On 18 September Sen. Joseph Biden introduced and passed an amendment to the Senate FY93 DOD authorization bill to return Pentagon air show policy it to the pre-June 1991 status quo. His amendment states that no DOD weapons can be exhibited at international marketing shows unless leased for an amount "not less than the fair market value of the lease interest." Industry must also pay the costs of transporting the weapons to the show. Biden's amendment permits a waiver of the directive, if the Secretary of one of the armed services decides that displaying a weapons system at an air show at taxpayer expense is in U.S. national security interests. ---end box--- Hayden urges Congress to resist the temptation to use most favored nation trade status to advance U.S. foreign policy goals. "Failure to extend MFN, or conditioning this status, places at risk a major market for U.S. goods, agriculture and investment, with limited probability of achieving U.S. objectives." Boeing estimates that between 1992 and 2010 China will buy between $25-$35 billion in commercial airplanes. Denial of MFN will jeopardize Boeing's ability to sell some $4.6 billion of aircraft to China, resulting in the loss of 54,000 man years of employment, he says. ---box--- China MFN bill On 22 September, Congress passes a bill to condition the renewal of China's MFN status next year on its weapons proliferation policies, among other things (see ASM no. 16 p. 5). President Bush, who vetoed a similar bill in March, is expected to veto this one, too. ---end box--- Foreign Affairs Hearing on F-15 Sale 23 September---The House Foreign Affairs Arms Control and Middle East Subcommittees hold a hearing on the proposed F-15 sale to Saudi Arabia and on outstanding U.S.-Saudi commercial disputes. Three panels, Congressional, Administration, and non-governmental, testify. Congressional testimony Rep. James Trafficant makes a very impassioned statement against the F-15 sale, based on past Saudi mistreatment of U.S. nationals. "Every time the Saudi's assets were on the line," he says with a straight face, the U.S. has been there for them, while in return, the Saudis have "screwed" U.S. businesses in Saudi Arabia. He introduced a bill prohibiting arms sales to Riyadh until the President certifies that all 18 out- standing commercial disputes have been resolved. In closing he makes clear: "I will not vote for any arms sales for Saudi Arabia, even with my language." Rep. Larry Smith also testifies against the F-15 sale, saying it will send a series of "wrong messages." First, it says that selling arms for commercial purposes is OK. Second, the sale signals our lack of respect for democracy and bolsters the legitimacy of the Saudi regime. Smith supports the resolution of disapproval, but like Trafficant he is not sanguine it will pass. At the least, he says, certain conditions must be placed on the sale: Saudi Arabia should agree to end the economic boycott of companies doing business with Israel; a use and deployment agreement for the aircraft should be negotiated between Israel and Saudi Arabia; the F-15s should be delivered as one-for-one replacements for Saudi F-105 planes; and Mav-erick air-to-ground missiles should be eliminated from the deal. Rep. Charles Schumer testifies against the sale. He introduced a second resolution of disapproval (H.J.Res.549) the day before the hearing, which conditions the sale on Saudi Arabia first ending the primary and secondary economic boycott of Israel. Administration testimony Under Secretary of State for International Affairs, Frank Wisner, testifies that these F-15s are intended to serve as a deterrent to, and if necessary, a "first line of defense" against, Iran and Iraq. Wisner says this sale "does not threaten Israel's qualitative edge." Moreover, he credits a shift in Saudi policy as greatly changing Israel's strategic environment. Never has Israel faced less threat than now, he assures. Wisner's counterpart at the Pentagon, Principal Under Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Carl Ford, reiterates that the F-15 sale is immediately necessitated by the threat posed to Saudi Arabia from Iraq and Iran. Ford says given its economic and military potential, "Iraq poses a medium and long-term threat to its neighbors." He finally concedes under relentless questioning by Chairman Lee Hamilton, that Iraq does not pose an imminent threat of invasion. When asked if Iran today represents a threat to Saudi Arabia, Ford says "no, not today, but over the longer term." Hamilton inquires whether with these F-15 Saudi Arabia could defend itself against these countries. Ford answers, "No, not for an extended period of time against an aggressive country like Iran or Iraq." Rep. Mel Levine, citing the unusualness of the President going to a campaign rally at the manufacturing plant to announce an arms sale, says "It's pretty difficult to escape the conclusion" that election year politics is driving the F-15 sale. Making sales decisions on political considerations "undermines the bases under which arms sales are supposed to be made," as codified in the Arms Export Control Act. That law calls for arms sales to promote regional stability and arms control; it does not envision arms sales as jobs programs, he reminds. Wisner agrees that arms sales should not be decided on commercial merits and claims that this one was based on "strategic rationales....This is not a matter of commerce." Levine, glad to hear that, says that "certainly was not the way it was presented to the public" Levine asks Wisner what impact the sale has had on the Mideast bilateral and multilateral peace talks. Wisner says it has had a "constructive influence." The Moscow round of multilateral talks was in no way impeded by the announcement, and Israel and Syria continued to negotiate unabated right through the announcement. Levine ventures on: "Wouldn't it make sense when we're engaged in potentially path-breaking arms control talks in the region" to put these Saudi and compensatory Israeli arms sales on hold? Wisner doesn't really address the question, but says the balance of military power in the region will not be upset by the sale. Moreover, this sale provides the U.S. with "critically needed influence in a vital region," Wisner says. Wait a minute. Saudi Arabia depends on us for it's defense, right? Wisner: "in the final analysis, yes." Levine: don't we maintain influence with Saudi Arabia by the fact that they are dependent on us for their defense? Wisner: well.... Expert testimony Ralph Earle, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, former Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and current Chairman of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security, outlines his concerns about proceeding with the F-15 sale now. "The Administration asserts that our allies in the region have legitimate security concerns in the region; this is obviously true. The security interests are only made more precarious as the region becomes laden with sophisticated conventional armaments. Our sales throughout the region have only tended to push the upward cycle of rearmament in the region without any real benefit for our allies in the long-term. If we are concerned other industrialized nations might sell to regional allies if we do not, then we should bring the force of our national leadership to negate the crass commercialism which inevitably creates more egregious security problems." He urges that the U.S. review its legitimate long-term security needs and those of its allies, and in the interim, halt further arms transfers. Natalie Goldring, Deputy Director of the British American Security Information Council, says it's a myth that the F-15 and F-16 sales will save arms industry jobs. "In fact, they will postpone job losses on these particular lines for only a short time. The Administration has determined that these lines are going to close; the only question is when. If the United States considers it in its national security interest to have an operational F-15 line, the Department of Defense could buy additional planes for its own forces, even at inefficient rates. DoD could also investigate the possibility of upgrading the F-15 rather than proceeding with the costly F-22 Advanced Tactical Fighter pro-gram. We don't need to sell our most advanced fighter aircraft." On the arms control implications of the sale: "Last fall, the Perm Five issued guidelines for conventional arms transfers in which they agreed to avoid transfers that would `increase tension in a region or contribute to regional instability' or which would `introduce destabilizing military capabilities in aa region.' This sale violates both principles." Ironically, Goldring notes, full 50-day notification would expire on election day, 3 November. The rushed timing of the notification "has seriously inhibited American citizens' rights to a fully informed debate of the sale," she says. Miscellany U.S.-Kuwait Military Cooperation Kills Three 9 August---Two Marines are killed when their Cobra helicopter crashes during military exercises in Kuwait. They were taking part in nearly month-long military exercises called (in inimitable Pentagonese) operations "Intrinsic Action," "Eager Mace" and "Native Fury." The exercises, which sprang from the ten-year U.S. defense cooperation agreement signed with Kuwait last year, pairing U.S. soldiers with American equipment stored in Kuwait. The following week (17 August) a U.S. Navy Harrier jet fighter crashes in the exercises. Its pilot is killed. Drumming up business in the Gulf August---A travelling road show of U.S. M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks and their companion Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) are touring the Persian Gulf. They are pitted in a sales war against the British Challenger 2 tank/Desert Warrior IFV duo for the lucrative United Arab Emirates and Kuwaiti markets. Army chief Michael Stone and Secretary of Defense Richard Cheney even show up in the region to stump for the Abrams/Bradley combo. Missile Sanctions Relaxed Against China 12 September---The State Department tells Congress that, on national security grounds, it is waiving legislated sanctions against China, levied because of past Chinese missile technology transfers. The waiver follows China's agreement earlier this year to observe Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) export guidelines. State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher says: "It was announced that in response to this Chinese decision [to abide by the MTCR], we would consider waivers for the export of satellites and components. The Administration has carefully monitored Chinese compliance and concludes that Chinese behavior is consistent with its obligations." The waiver frees up for export six satellites worth $650 million. "These exports will help reduce our trade deficit with China and provide jobs for American workers," Boucher said. ---box--- Rep. Bennett Notes Dangers of Warplane Sales In a timely op-ed, Rep. Charles Bennett says, "Despite the publicity focussed on the dangers of ballistic-missile delivery systems, it seems that future nuclear challenges to the U.S. and its interests are more likely to come by aircraft." He cites a recent House Intelligence Committee report outlining the emerging U.S. security threat posed by the spread of advanced combat aircraft, and he notes that in the past decade hundreds of aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons have been sold to developing countries. Instead of aircraft sales like those currently pending, he recommends, "our nation should spearhead a multinational effort to limit or end such sales." ---end box--- Recent Congressional Publications Defense Economic Adjustment and Conversion Program (Newport, RI) (hearing of the Investigations Subcommittee of the HASC on 16 December 1991) U.S.GPO: 1992 Korean Fighter Program (hearing of the Arms Control Subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on 1 August 1991) U.S.GPO: 1992 Need for an Independent Counsel to Investigate U.S. Government Assistance to Iraq (hearing of the Judiciary Committee on 2 & 23 June 1992) U.S.GPO: 1992 Review of U.S. Department of Agriculture's Export Credit Guarantees Extended to Iraq (hearing of the House Agriculture Comm. on 14 March 1991 on BNL) U.S. GPO: 1992