| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of dollars: | |||||||
| Receipts | 1,782 | 1,798 | 2,036 | 2,206 | 2,351 | 2,485 | 2,616 |
| Outlays | 2,158 | 2,319 | 2,400 | 2,473 | 2,592 | 2,724 | 2,853 |
| Deficit 1 | -375 | -521 | -364 | -268 | -241 | -239 | -237 |
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | 10,828 | 11,466 | 12,042 | 12,641 | 13,279 | 13,973 | 14,702 |
| As a percent of GDP: | |||||||
| Receipts | 16.5% | 15.7% | 16.9% | 17.4% | 17.7% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| Outlays | 19.9% | 20.2% | 19.9% | 19.6% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| Deficit | -3.5% | -4.5% | -3.0% | -2.1% | -1.8% | -1.7% | -1.6% |
| Actual | 2004 Enacted |
2005 Proposed |
2004–2005 Dollar Change |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | ||||
| Discretionary budget authority: | ||||||
| Homeland Security (non-Defense) | 10 | 13 | 24 | 28 | 30 | 3 |
| Department of Defense | 303 | 328 | 365 | 375 | 402 | 26 |
| Other Operations of Government | 331 | 351 | 370 | 384 | 386 | 2 |
| Total, Discretionary budget authority | 644 | 691 | 758 | 787 | 818 | 31 |
| Percent change by category: | ||||||
| Homeland Security (non-Defense) | 13.9% | 21.5% | 84.9% | 18.2% | 9.7% | |
| Department of Defense | 5.3% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 7.1% | |
| Other Operations of Government | 14.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 0.5% | |
| Total, Percent change | 10.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | |
| Supplementals: | ||||||
| Homeland Security | 3 | 12 | 6 | * | ||
| Defense and Other War on Terror | 14 | 18 | 80 | 87 | ||
| Non-Defense, non-Homeland | 3 | 14 | 5 | * | ||
| Total, Supplemental funding | 20 | 44 | 91 | 87 | ||
| Total, Discretionary budget authority with supplementals | 664 | 735 | 849 | 874 | 818 | -56 |
| Percent change by category with supplementals: | ||||||
| Homeland Security (non-Defense) | 41.6% | 86.3% | 21.8% | -5.5% | 9.3% | |
| Department of Defense | 10.3% | 9.1% | 28.9% | 3.7% | -13.1% | |
| Other Operations of Government | 16.0% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 0.4% | |
| Total, Percent change | 13.6% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 2.9% | -6.4% | |
| Growth | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Estimate | 2004-2005 | Average | Cumulative | ||||||||
| Agency | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | Change | Percent | 2001–2005 | 2001–2005 | |||
| Agriculture | 19.2 | 20.1 | 21.7 | 20.7 | 19.1 | -1.7 | -8.1% | -0.2% | -0.9% | |||
| Commerce | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | -0.1 | -1.0% | 2.9% | 12.1% | |||
| Defense | 302.5 | 327.8 | 365.3 | 375.3 | 401.7 | 26.5 | 7.1% | 7.3% | 32.8% | |||
| Education | 40.1 | 48.5 | 53.1 | 55.7 | 57.3 | 1.7 | 3.0% | 9.3% | 43.0% | |||
| Energy | 20.0 | 20.9 | 21.9 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 0.3 | 1.2% | 4.2% | 17.7% | |||
| Health and Human Services | 54.0 | 59.5 | 65.7 | 69.3 | 68.2 | -1.1 | -1.6% | 6.0% | 26.2% | |||
| Homeland Security | 14.0 | 15.7 | 22.0 | 27.1 | 28.3 | 1.3 | 4.6% | 19.3% | 102.3% | |||
| Housing and Urban Development | 28.4 | 29.4 | 30.1 | 30.4 | 31.3 | 0.8 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 10.3% | |||
| Interior | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 0.2 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 5.7% | |||
| Justice | 18.4 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 19.3 | 18.7 | -0.6 | -3.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | |||
| Labor | 11.9 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 0.1 | 1.3% | -0.1% | -0.4% | |||
| State | 7.7 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 10.7% | 7.3% | 32.8% | |||
| Transportation | 14.6 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 13.3 | -0.5 | -3.9% | -2.1% | -8.3% | |||
| Treasury | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 10.8 | -0.4 | -3.6% | 1.1% | 4.3% | |||
| Veterans Affairs | 22.4 | 23.8 | 26.4 | 29.1 | 29.7 | 0.5 | 1.8% | 7.3% | 32.5% | |||
| Corps of Engineers | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | -0.6 | -13.1% | -4.1% | -15.4% | |||
| Environmental Protection Agency | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 7.8 | -0.6 | -7.2% | -0.2% | -1.0% | |||
| Executive Office of the President | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 30.2% | |||
| General Services Administration | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -49.2% | 5.3% | 22.8% | |||
| International Assistance Programs | 12.6 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 15.7 | 19.3 | 3.7 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 53.6% | |||
| Judicial Branch | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 11.5% | 7.8% | 35.2% | |||
| Legislative Branch | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 12.3% | 9.8% | 45.4% | |||
| NASA | 14.3 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 15.4 | 16.2 | 0.9 | 5.6% | 3.3% | 14.0% | |||
| National Science Foundation | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 3.0% | 6.7% | 29.7% | |||
| Small Business Administration | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -10.4% | -6.8% | -24.7% | |||
| Social Security Administration | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 5.9% | 5.9% | 25.8% | |||
| Other Agencies | 7.0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | -1.5 | -19.1% | -2.0% | -7.6% | |||
| Total, Discretionary Spending | 643.8 | 691.0 | 758.5 | 787.3 | 818.4 | 31.1 | 3.9% | 6.2% | 27.1% | |||
| Emergency Response Funds and Supplementals | 20.0 | 43.8 | 90.9 | 87.3 | ||||||||
| Agency | 2000 to 2001 |
2001 to 2002 |
2002 to 2003 |
2003 to 2004 |
2004 to 2005 |
Average Growth 2001-2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 13% | 4% | 8% | -4% | -8% | * |
| Commerce | -41% | 6% | 3% | 4% | -1% | 3% |
| Defense | 5% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 7% |
| Education | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 9% |
| Energy | 13% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 4% |
| Health and Human Services | 19% | 10% | 10% | 5% | -2% | 6% |
| Homeland Security | -4% | 12% | 39% | 23% | 5% | 19% |
| Housing and Urban Development | 34% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Interior | 21% | 2% | * | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Justice | 14% | 1% | 2% | 2% | -3% | 1% |
| Labor | 36% | 2% | -2% | -1% | 1% | * |
| State | -1% | 16% | 3% | * | 11% | 7% |
| Transportation | 40% | -12% | 5% | 3% | -4% | -2% |
| Treasury | 12% | 2% | 2% | 5% | -4% | 1% |
| Veterans Affairs | 7% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 2% | 7% |
| Corps of Engineers | 14% | -4% | 3% | -1% | -13% | -4% |
| Environmental Protection Agency | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | -7% | * |
| Executive Office of the President | -4% | 5% | 14% | 8% | * | 7% |
| International Assistance Programs | -8% | 1% | 7% | 15% | 23% | 11% |
| Judicial Branch | 8% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 8% |
| Legislative Branch | 9% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 12% | 10% |
| NASA | 5% | 4% | 4% | * | 6% | 3% |
| National Science Foundation | 13% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 7% |
| Small Business Administration | 1% | -15% | * | -1% | -10% | -7% |
| Social Security Administration | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| Other Agencies | 23% | -3% | 33% | -9% | -21% | -2% |
| Percent Growth by Category: | ||||||
| Defense (DOD) | 5% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 7% |
| Homeland Security | 14% | 21% | 85% | 18% | 10% | 31% |
| Non-Defense, non-Homeland | 15% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| Total, excluding emergency supplementals | 10.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6% |
| Total, including emergency supplementals | 13.6% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 3.0% | -6.4% | 5% |
| Appropriations Subcommittee | 2004 Enacted |
2005 Proposed |
Change: 2004–2005 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture and Rural Development | 17.7 | 16.4 | -1.2 |
| Commerce, Justice, State, and the Judiciary | 38.7 | 39.4 | 0.7 |
| Defense | 366.1 | 392.5 | 26.4 |
| District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0.6 | * |
| Energy and Water Development | 27.3 | 27.0 | -0.3 |
| Foreign Operations | 17.5 | 21.3 | 3.8 |
| Homeland Security | 27.1 | 28.3 | 1.3 |
| Interior and Related Agencies | 20.0 | 20.0 | -0.1 |
| Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education | 140.9 | 141.8 | 0.9 |
| Legislative Branch | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Military Construction | 9.3 | 9.5 | 0.2 |
| Transportation, Treasury, and General Government | 28.7 | 26.0 | -2.7 |
| Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development | 90.1 | 92.0 | 1.9 |
| Allowances | — | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Total, excluding supplemental funding | 787.3 | 818.4 | 31.1 |
| Supplemental funding | 87.3 | — | |
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Supplemental | Estimate | Supplemental | Proposed | |||
| Homeland Security Funding: | |||||||
| Department of Agriculture | 300 | 110 | 327 | — | 651 | ||
| Department of Commerce | 112 | — | 131 | — | 150 | ||
| Department of Defense-Military 1 | 8,442 | — | 7,024 | — | 8,023 | ||
| Department of Energy | 1,247 | 162 | 1,363 | — | 1,497 | ||
| Department of Health and Human Services | 4,002 | 142 | 4,109 | — | 4,276 | ||
| Department of Homeland Security | 18,652 | 4,411 | 23,492 | 91 | 27,214 | ||
| Department of Justice | 1,893 | 457 | 2,166 | 16 | 2,581 | ||
| Department of State | 633 | 1 | 701 | — | 955 | ||
| Department of the Treasury | 80 | — | 90 | — | 87 | ||
| Department of Transportation | 383 | — | 284 | — | 243 | ||
| Department of Veterans Affairs | 154 | — | 271 | — | 297 | ||
| Corps of Engineers | 36 | 39 | 103 | — | 84 | ||
| Environmental Protection Agency | 133 | — | 123 | — | 97 | ||
| Social Security Administration | 132 | — | 143 | — | 155 | ||
| National Aeronautics and Space Administration | 205 | — | 191 | — | 207 | ||
| National Science Foundation | 285 | — | 328 | — | 344 | ||
| Other Agencies | 429 | 7 | 461 | — | 525 | ||
| Total, Homeland Security Funding | 37,118 | 5,329 | 41,307 | 107 | 47,386 | ||
| Less Department of Defense-Military 1 | -8,442 | — | -7,024 | — | -8,023 | ||
| Less Department of Homeland Security Project BioShield 2 | — | — | -885 | — | -2,528 | ||
| Total, Homeland Security Funding, excluding Defense and BioShield | 28,676 | 5,329 | 33,398 | 107 | 36,835 | ||
| Less Mandatory Homeland Security Funding 3 | -1,760 | — | -1,948 | — | -2,261 | ||
| Less Discretionary Fee-Funded Activities 4 | -3,414 | 705 | -3,655 | — | -4,081 | ||
| Net Non-Defense Discretionary Homeland Security Budget Authority | 23,502 | 6,034 | 27,795 | 107 | 30,493 | ||
| CBO Estimate of 2004 Likely Enacted | 786.0 |
| Estimating differences: | |
| Receipt estimates in housing and homeland security programs | -0.9 |
| Differences due to scoring interpretations | -0.3 |
| Other technical scoring differences | 0.1 |
| OMB Estimate of 2004 Enacted | 784.9 |
| Post-enactment adjustments: | |
| Reclassifications and technical reestimates: | |
| Medicare administrative costs for P.L. 108–173, shift mandatory to discretionary | 1.5 |
| Remove Project BioShield from discretionary category | -0.9 |
| Rebase appropriations changes to Justice and USDA mandatory programs | 1.5 |
| Technical revisions | 0.3 |
| Revised OMB Estimate of 2004 Enacted Current Year Levels | 787.3 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005–2009 | 2005–2014 | |||||||
| Agriculture: | ||||||||
| Forest Service Recreation Fee Proposal | — | — | -17 | -12 | -7 | -2 | -38 | — |
| Extend expiring National School Lunch Act provisions | 11 | 18 | — | — | — | — | 18 | 18 |
| Subtotal, Agriculture | 11 | 18 | -17 | -12 | -7 | -2 | -20 | 18 |
| Education: | ||||||||
| Reform the Federal Student Loan Programs to Help Students Afford College: | ||||||||
| Expand Teacher Loan Forgiveness | — | 227 | 50 | 52 | 54 | 57 | 440 | 763 |
| Retain Variable Interest Rates | — | — | 103 | 200 | 198 | 175 | 676 | 1,783 |
| Increase Loan Limits for First-Year Students from $2,625 to $3,000 | — | 20 | 58 | 75 | 78 | 82 | 313 | 775 |
| Standardize FFEL and DL Extended Repayment Plans | — | 184 | 112 | -33 | 41 | 86 | 390 | 1,022 |
| Additional Benefits to Students | — | 251 | 286 | 373 | 293 | 287 | 1,490 | 3,062 |
| Subtotal | — | 682 | 609 | 667 | 664 | 687 | 3,309 | 7,405 |
| Standardize Guaranty Agency Insurance Premium | — | -497 | -352 | -337 | -339 | -341 | -1,866 | -3,952 |
| Eliminate Rollover of Tax-Exempt Special Allowance | — | -490 | -448 | -418 | -430 | -456 | -2,242 | -4,949 |
| Other Student Loan Reforms | — | 116 | -65 | -92 | -95 | -90 | -226 | -807 |
| Subtotal, Education | — | -189 | -256 | -180 | -200 | -200 | -1,025 | -2,303 |
| Energy: | ||||||||
| Reclassification of Nuclear Waste Disposal Fees as discretionary | — | 749 | 754 | 757 | 767 | 767 | 3,794 | 7,655 |
| Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), lease bonuses | — | — | -1,200 | — | — | — | -1,200 | -1,200 |
| Subtotal, Energy | — | 749 | -446 | 757 | 767 | 767 | 2,594 | 6,455 |
| Health and Human Services (HHS): | ||||||||
| Medicaid/State Children’s Health Insurance Program: | ||||||||
| Medicaid proposals | 175 | 889 | 846 | 959 | 1,098 | 1,252 | 5,044 | 7,863 |
| Program Integrity | — | -1,542 | -1,737 | -1,924 | -2,120 | -2,327 | -9,650 | -23,553 |
| Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Reauthorization | 96 | 279 | 328 | 337 | 350 | 361 | 1,657 | 3,390 |
| Healthy Marriages: | ||||||||
| Healthy Marriage and Family Formation Initiative | -118 | -59 | 13 | 38 | 40 | 40 | 72 | 272 |
| State-based Abstinence Grants | 9 | 30 | 45 | 49 | 50 | 50 | 224 | 474 |
| Child Support Enforcement: Increase Collections and Improve Program Effectiveness | — | -63 | 10 | 70 | 49 | 39 | 105 | 248 |
| Subtotal, Healthy marriages | -109 | -92 | 68 | 157 | 139 | 129 | 401 | 994 |
| Foster Care: Clarify Statutory Eligibility Definition | — | -67 | -69 | -72 | -75 | -78 | -361 | -807 |
| Child Welfare Program Option | — | 7 | 90 | 120 | -26 | -195 | -4 | — |
| Compensation for 2000–01 Military Wage Credits (non-paygo): | ||||||||
| Payment to Medicare trust funds | — | 181 | — | — | — | — | 181 | 181 |
| Medicare trust fund receipts | — | -181 | — | — | — | — | -181 | -181 |
| Subtotal, HHS | 163 | -526 | -474 | -422 | -633 | -857 | -2,912 | -12,113 |
| Homeland Security: | ||||||||
| Extend Bureau of Customs and Border Protection’s Fees | — | -820 | -1,391 | -1,448 | -1,507 | -1,570 | -6,736 | -15,691 |
| Interior: | ||||||||
| ANWR, lease bonuses: | ||||||||
| State of Alaska’s share: | ||||||||
| Receipts | — | — | -1,201 | -1 | -101 | -1 | -1,304 | -1,359 |
| Expenditures | — | — | 1,201 | 1 | 101 | 1 | 1,304 | 1,359 |
| Federal share | — | — | -1 | -1 | -101 | -1 | -104 | -159 |
| Permanent Recreation Fee Authority | — | — | -19 | -3 | 32 | 70 | 80 | 465 |
| Correct trust accounting deficiencies in individual Indian money investments | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Increase Indian Gaming Commission Fees 1 | — | — | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 42 |
| Bureau of Land Management Land Sale Authority: | ||||||||
| Receipts | — | -24 | -33 | -38 | -48 | -48 | -191 | -471 |
| Expenditures | — | 6 | 17 | 25 | 32 | 38 | 118 | 379 |
| Subtotal, Interior | 6 | -18 | -33 | -13 | -80 | 64 | -80 | 256 |
| Labor: | ||||||||
| Unemployment Insurance fiscal integrity | — | -11 | -23 | -35 | -37 | -39 | -145 | -371 |
| Federal Employees’ Compensation Act | — | -7 | -15 | -15 | -22 | -28 | -87 | -290 |
| Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation | — | — | -39 | -160 | -154 | -163 | -516 | -310 |
| Black Lung Disability Trust Fund debt refinancing (non-paygo): | ||||||||
| Black Lung Disability Trust Fund | — | 2,764 | -517 | -512 | -506 | -507 | 722 | -2,121 |
| Interest receipts on repayable advances | — | -2,764 | 517 | 512 | 506 | 507 | -722 | 2,121 |
| Subtotal, Labor | — | -18 | -77 | -210 | -213 | -230 | -748 | -971 |
| Treasury: | ||||||||
| Outlay effects of refundable tax credits: 1 | ||||||||
| Health care tax credit | — | 82 | 3,760 | 5,041 | 6,388 | 7,133 | 22,404 | 65,355 |
| Child tax credit | — | — | -145 | -147 | -149 | -150 | -591 | -1,368 |
| Earned income tax credit | — | -440 | 131 | 130 | 119 | 134 | 74 | 643 |
| Contingent offset for refundable portion of the health care tax credit | — | -82 | -3,760 | -5,041 | -6,388 | -7,133 | -22,404 | -65,355 |
| Move Asset Forfeiture Fund to the Department of Justice: | ||||||||
| Treasury Asset Forfeiture Fund | — | -251 | -251 | -251 | -251 | -251 | -1,255 | -2,510 |
| Justice Asset Forfeiture Fund | — | 251 | 251 | 251 | 251 | 251 | 1,255 | 2,510 |
| Extend the Rum Carryover for Puerto Rico | 58 | 79 | 21 | — | — | — | 100 | 100 |
| Subtotal, Treasury | 58 | -361 | 7 | -17 | -30 | -16 | -417 | -625 |
| Veterans Affairs: | ||||||||
| Reverse Allen Case providing compensation for drug | ||||||||
| and alcohol abuse-related disabilities | -51 | -162 | -235 | -259 | -304 | -321 | -1,281 | -3,130 |
| Limit home loan guarantees to one-time use | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 91 |
| Eliminate the “45 Day Rule” for Death Pension | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| Accelerated education benefit payment | — | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Subtotal, Veterans Affairs | -51 | -161 | -234 | -258 | -303 | -320 | -1,275 | -3,026 |
| Army Corps of Engineers: | ||||||||
| Additional user fees | — | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -35 | -70 |
| Program expenditure of fees | — | — | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 62 |
| Subtotal, Army Corps of Engineers | — | -7 | -1 | — | — | — | -8 | -8 |
| Federal Communications Commission (FCC): | ||||||||
| Analog Spectrum Lease Fee | — | — | — | -500 | -500 | -480 | -1,480 | -2,580 |
| Extend Spectrum Auction Authority and Authorize Fees | — | — | -50 | 1,850 | 1,700 | -3,100 | 400 | -5,525 |
| Spectrum Relocation Fund | — | — | 200 | 400 | 500 | 600 | 1,700 | 2,500 |
| Subtotal, FCC | — | — | 150 | 1,750 | 1,700 | -2,980 | 620 | -5,605 |
| Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: | ||||||||
| Merge Bank Insurance Fund and Savings Association | ||||||||
| Insurance Fund | — | — | 568 | 742 | -60 | -63 | 1,187 | 861 |
| Social Security Administration (SSA): | ||||||||
| Cross-program recovery of SSA overpayments: | ||||||||
| On-Budget | — | -49 | -69 | -48 | -11 | -8 | -185 | -211 |
| Off-Budget (non-paygo) | — | -2 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -14 | -27 |
| Close Loophole that Allows Some Workers to Avoid Government Pension Offset (non-paygo) | — | -1 | -3 | -5 | -7 | -9 | -25 | -109 |
| Reduce Improper Payments by Requiring Reporting of Non-Social Security Covered Pension Income (non-paygo) | — | — | — | -215 | -323 | -282 | -820 | -2,313 |
| Compensation for 2000–01 Military Wage Credits (non-paygo): | ||||||||
| On-Budget | — | 759 | — | — | — | — | 759 | 759 |
| Off-Budget | — | -759 | — | — | — | — | -759 | -759 |
| Supplemental Security Income Pre-Effectuation Reviews and Other Technical Adjustments | — | -3 | -26 | -58 | -99 | -142 | -328 | -1,803 |
| Extend SSI Eligibility to Refugees and Asylees to eight Years after Entry | — | 64 | 68 | 74 | — | — | 206 | 206 |
| Mandate Expedited, Electronic Reporting of Death Information by States: | ||||||||
| On-Budget | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Off-Budget (non-paygo) | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Subtotal, SSA | * | 9 | -33 | -255 | -443 | -444 | -1,166 | -4,257 |
| Indirect Impact of Other Proposals (Third Scorecard): | ||||||||
| Power Marketing Administrations to directly fund Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation’s hydro operations and maintenance expenses and other proposals | — | 168 | 163 | 150 | 147 | 160 | 788 | 1,585 |
| Total, Mandatory Proposals | 187 | -1,156 | -2,074 | 584 | -862 | -5,691 | -9,199 | -35,424 |
| Paygo | 181 | -1,321 | -2,231 | 657 | -676 | -5,557 | -9,128 | -34,560 |
| Non-Paygo | 6 | 165 | 157 | -73 | -186 | -134 | -71 | -864 |
| Spending effects of permanent extension of 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, included in baseline: | ||||||||
| Child tax credit 1 | — | — | 4,265 | 4,131 | 4,003 | 3,936 | 16,335 | 47,809 |
| Earned income tax credit 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5,676 |
| Total | — | — | 4,265 | 4,131 | 4,003 | 3,936 | 16,335 | 53,485 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005–2009 | 2005–2014 | |||||||
| Make Permanent the Tax Cuts Enacted in 2001 and 2003, assumed in the baseline: | ||||||||
| Extend certain provisions through 2010: | ||||||||
| Child tax credit 1 | — | -2,166 | -8,930 | -9,023 | -9,067 | -8,325 | -37,511 | -42,079 |
| Marriage penalty relief | — | -5,318 | -6,634 | -3,883 | -1,850 | -423 | -18,108 | -18,108 |
| 10 percent individual income tax rate bracket | — | -4,005 | -5,981 | -6,435 | -4,036 | -2,956 | -23,413 | -27,343 |
| Total, extend certain provisions through 2010 | — | -11,489 | -21,545 | -19,341 | -14,953 | -11,704 | -79,032 | -87,530 |
| Permanently extend certain provisions: | ||||||||
| Dividends tax rate structure | — | 498 | 486 | 485 | 642 | -17,272 | -15,161 | -81,280 |
| Capital gains tax rate structure | — | — | — | — | -5,268 | -7,366 | -12,634 | -49,970 |
| Expensing for small business | — | 226 | -3,336 | -5,711 | -4,102 | -3,205 | -16,128 | -24,798 |
| Marginal individual income tax rate reductions | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -395,269 |
| Child tax credit 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -72,786 |
| Marriage penalty relief 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -32,426 |
| Education incentives | — | -11 | -16 | -22 | -24 | -37 | -110 | -6,758 |
| Repeal of estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and modification of gift taxes | — | -1,000 | -1,609 | -1,732 | -1,977 | -2,244 | -8,562 | -180,111 |
| Modifications of pension plans | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1,804 |
| Other incentives for families and children | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -3,531 |
| Total, permanent extensions | — | -287 | -4,475 | -6,980 | -10,729 | -30,124 | -52,595 | -848,733 |
| Total, extensions of tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003, assumed in baseline | — | -11,776 | -26,020 | -26,321 | -25,682 | -41,828 | -131,627 | -936,263 |
| Tax Incentives: | ||||||||
| Simplify and encourage saving: | ||||||||
| Expand tax-free savings opportunities | — | 3,949 | 8,192 | 5,488 | 2,798 | 685 | 21,112 | 5,558 |
| Consolidate employer-based savings accounts | — | -214 | -318 | -337 | -358 | -380 | -1,607 | -11,763 |
| Establish Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) | — | -134 | -286 | -326 | -300 | -255 | -1,301 | -1,380 |
| Total simplify and encourage saving | — | 3,601 | 7,588 | 4,825 | 2,140 | 50 | 18,204 | -7,585 |
| Invest in health care: | ||||||||
| Provide refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance 4 | — | -24 | -1,417 | -1,059 | -854 | -632 | -3,986 | -4,700 |
| Provide an above-the-line deduction for high-deductible insurance premiums | — | -173 | -1,764 | -2,014 | -2,292 | -2,501 | -8,744 | -24,775 |
| Provide an above-the-line deduction for long-term care insurance premiums | — | -68 | -489 | -805 | -1,572 | -2,435 | -5,369 | -21,428 |
| Provide an additional personal exemption to home caregivers of family members | — | -71 | -460 | -398 | -398 | -415 | -1,742 | -3,759 |
| Allow the orphan drug tax credit for certain pre-designation expenses | — | — | — | — | — | — | -1 | -2 |
| Clarify the Health Coverage Tax Credit 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total invest in health care | — | -336 | -4,130 | -4,276 | -5,116 | -5,983 | -19,841 | -54,662 |
| Provide incentives for charitable giving: | ||||||||
| Provide charitable contribution deduction for nonitemizers | — | -1,248 | -1,103 | -1,111 | -1,144 | -1,173 | -5,779 | -12,036 |
| Permit tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions | -68 | -450 | -341 | -327 | -330 | -329 | -1,777 | -3,498 |
| Expand and increase the enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory | — | -42 | -87 | -96 | -106 | -116 | -447 | -1,224 |
| Reform excise tax based on investment income of private foundations | — | -133 | -83 | -84 | -86 | -90 | -476 | -1,009 |
| Modify tax on unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts | — | -8 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -31 | -68 |
| Modify basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated property | — | -21 | -13 | -15 | -18 | -21 | -88 | -239 |
| Repeal the $150 million limitation on qualified 501(c)(3) bonds | — | -8 | -10 | -11 | -10 | -10 | -49 | -94 |
| Repeal certain restrictions on the use of qualified 501(c)(3) bonds for residential rental property | — | -5 | -6 | -12 | -18 | -25 | -66 | -299 |
| Total provide incentives for charitable giving | -68 | -1,915 | -1,648 | -1,662 | -1,718 | -1,770 | -8,713 | -18,467 |
| Strengthen education: | ||||||||
| Extend, increase, and expand the above-the-line deduction for qualified out-of-pocket classroom expenses | -23 | -229 | -240 | -249 | -260 | -263 | -1,241 | -2,611 |
| Encourage telecommuting: | ||||||||
| Exclude from income the value of employer-provided computers, software, and peripherals | — | -27 | -45 | -43 | -48 | -55 | -218 | -668 |
| Increase housing opportunities: | ||||||||
| Provide tax credit for developers of affordable single-family housing | — | -7 | -81 | -327 | -776 | -1,352 | -2,543 | -16,409 |
| Protect the environment: | ||||||||
| Extend permanently expensing of brownfields remediation costs | -178 | -243 | -212 | -201 | -191 | -181 | -1,028 | -1,858 |
| Exclude 50 percent of gains from the sale of property for conservation purposes | — | -45 | -88 | -101 | -58 | — | -292 | -292 |
| Total protect the environment | -178 | -288 | -300 | -302 | -249 | -181 | -1,320 | -2,150 |
| Increase energy production and promote energy conservation: | ||||||||
| Extend and modify the tax credit for producing electricity from certain sources | — | -401 | -337 | -305 | -278 | -139 | -1,460 | -2,175 |
| Provide tax credit for residential solar energy systems | — | -12 | -11 | -17 | -23 | -10 | -73 | -73 |
| Modify treatment of nuclear decommissioning funds | — | -193 | -147 | -154 | -162 | -169 | -825 | -1,767 |
| Provide tax credit for purchase of certain hybrid and fuel cell vehicles | — | -79 | -223 | -376 | -556 | -542 | -1,776 | -2,211 |
| Provide tax credit for energy produced from landfill gas | — | -34 | -67 | -91 | -104 | -117 | -413 | -737 |
| Provide tax credit for combined heat and power property | — | -154 | -107 | -64 | -62 | -13 | -400 | -349 |
| Extend excise tax exemption (credit) for ethanol 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Permit electric utilities to defer gain from sales of electric transmission property | -11 | -475 | -615 | -532 | -227 | 100 | -1,749 | 361 |
| Modify tax treatment of certain income of electric cooperatives | — | -14 | -20 | -21 | -22 | -23 | -100 | -235 |
| Total increase energy production and promote energy conservation | -11 | -1,362 | -1,527 | -1,560 | -1,434 | -913 | -6,796 | -7,186 |
| Total tax incentives | -280 | -563 | -383 | -3,594 | -7,461 | -10,467 | -22,468 | -109,738 |
| Simplify the Tax Laws for Families: | ||||||||
| Establish uniform definition of a qualifying child 6 | — | -38 | -34 | -29 | -20 | -9 | -130 | -142 |
| Simplify adoption tax benefits | — | -4 | -39 | -40 | -42 | -43 | -168 | -411 |
| Eliminate household maintenance test for head-of-household filing status | — | -123 | -297 | -284 | -285 | -281 | -1,270 | -2,555 |
| Reduce computational complexity of refundable child tax credit 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21 |
| Simplify EITC eligibility requirements regarding filing status, presence of children, investment income, and work and immigration status 8 | — | 64 | -36 | -35 | -32 | -33 | -72 | -272 |
| Simplify the taxation of dependents | — | -11 | -25 | -20 | -25 | -43 | -124 | -498 |
| Consolidate rules for lifetime learning credit, Hope credit, and education expense deductions, and simplify other higher education provisions | — | -19 | -94 | -311 | -294 | -282 | -1,000 | -2,558 |
| Allow annual reporting and payment of combined State and Federal unemployment insurance taxes by employers of household employees | — | -20 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -24 | -30 |
| Simplify taxation of capital gains on collectibles, small business stock, and other assets | — | -4 | 5 | 11 | -1 | -17 | -6 | -35 |
| Total simplify the tax laws for families | — | -155 | -521 | -709 | -700 | -709 | -2,794 | -6,480 |
| Strengthen the Employer-Based Pension System: | ||||||||
| Ensure fair treatment of older workers in cash balance conversions and protect defined benefit plans | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2,373 |
| Improve the accuracy of pension liability measures | 8,537 | 12,297 | 7,340 | 3,042 | -1,586 | -5,467 | 15,626 | -15,869 |
| Total strengthen the employer-based pension system | 8,537 | 12,297 | 7,340 | 3,042 | -1,586 | -5,467 | 15,626 | -13,496 |
| Close Loopholes and Improve Tax Compliance: | ||||||||
| Combat abusive tax avoidance transactions | — | 46 | 63 | 85 | 113 | 128 | 435 | 1,071 |
| Limit related party interest deductions | — | -51 | 93 | 146 | 203 | 265 | 656 | 3,116 |
| Modify qualification rules for tax-exempt property-casualty insurance companies | — | 67 | 114 | 116 | 119 | 121 | 537 | 1,184 |
| Prevent abusive overvaluations on donations of patents and other intellectual property | — | 432 | 270 | 273 | 277 | 287 | 1,539 | 3,207 |
| Prevent overvaluations and other abuses in charitable donations of used vehicles | — | 158 | 102 | 105 | 108 | 112 | 585 | 1,197 |
| Reform the treatment for leasing transactions with tax-indifferent parties | 340 | 1,591 | 2,712 | 3,285 | 3,565 | 3,766 | 14,919 | 33,385 |
| Ensure foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies cannot inappropriately avoid U.S. tax on foreign earnings invested in U.S. property through use of the exception for bank deposits | — | 24 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 112 | 234 |
| Modify tax rules for individuals who give up U.S. citizenship or green card status | 1 | 23 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 114 | 272 |
| Require increased reporting for noncash charitable contributions | — | 49 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 179 | 367 |
| Clarify and simplify qualified tuition programs | — | 7 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 62 | 194 |
| Total close loopholes and improve tax compliance | 341 | 2,346 | 3,438 | 4,099 | 4,477 | 4,778 | 19,138 | 44,227 |
| Tax Administration, Unemployment Insurance, and Other: | ||||||||
| Improve tax administration: | ||||||||
| Implement IRS administrative reforms | — | 52 | 47 | 46 | 47 | 49 | 241 | 505 |
| Increase continuous levy for certain Federal payments | — | 10 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 87 | 202 |
| Permit private collection agencies to engage in specific, limited activities to support IRS collection efforts | — | — | 47 | 151 | 190 | 153 | 541 | 1,531 |
| Total improve tax administration | — | 62 | 112 | 216 | 257 | 222 | 869 | 2,238 |
| Strengthen financial integrity of unemployment insurance: | ||||||||
| Strengthen the financial integrity of the unemployment insurance system by reducing tax avoidance and improper benefit payments 9 | — | — | -2 | 108 | 142 | 120 | 368 | -216 |
| Other proposals: | ||||||||
| Increase Indian gaming activity fees | — | — | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 43 |
| Total tax administration, unemployment insurance, and other | — | 62 | 114 | 328 | 404 | 347 | 1,255 | 2,065 |
| Reauthorize Funding for the Highway Trust Fund: | ||||||||
| Deposit full amount of excise tax imposed on gasohol in the Highway Trust Fund 9 | — | — | 648 | 666 | 681 | 699 | 2,694 | 6,443 |
| Impose additional registration requirements on the transfer of tax-exempt fuel by pipeline, vessel, or barge 9 | — | 76 | 93 | 96 | 91 | 87 | 443 | 747 |
| Repeal installment method for payment of heavy highway vehicle use tax 9 | 407 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 156 | 341 |
| Allow tax-exempt financing for private highway projects and rail-truck transfer facilities | — | -20 | -49 | -77 | -94 | -97 | -337 | -619 |
| Total reauthorize funding for the Highway Trust Fund | 407 | 86 | 723 | 717 | 709 | 721 | 2,956 | 6,912 |
| Expiring Provisions (excludes proposals assumed in the baseline): | ||||||||
| Minimum tax relief for individuals | -86 | -9,383 | -13,881 | — | — | — | -23,264 | -23,264 |
| Research & Experimentation (R&E) tax credit | -672 | -3,610 | -5,187 | -6,291 | -7,129 | -7,775 | -29,992 | -78,351 |
| Repeal the disallowance of certain deductions of mutual life insurance companies | — | -85 | -51 | -48 | -45 | -43 | -272 | -471 |
| Combined work opportunity/welfare-to-work tax credit | -12 | -187 | -268 | -162 | -86 | -46 | -749 | -768 |
| DC tax incentives | -47 | -97 | -54 | -7 | -9 | -24 | -191 | -363 |
| Authority to issue Qualified Zone Academy Bonds | -2 | -9 | -15 | -22 | -28 | -30 | -104 | -254 |
| Deduction for corporate donations of computer technology | — | -180 | -46 | — | — | — | -226 | -226 |
| Net operating loss offset of 100 percent of alternative minimum taxable income | -1,326 | -755 | -101 | 203 | 154 | 129 | -370 | 82 |
| IRS user fees | — | 32 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 214 | 464 |
| Disclosure of tax return information related to terrorist activity 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abandoned mine reclamation fees | — | 239 | 245 | 252 | 256 | 262 | 1,254 | 2,550 |
| Authority to issue Liberty Zone Bonds | — | -8 | -27 | -45 | -62 | -79 | -221 | -616 |
| Excise tax on coal 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 180 |
| Total extend other expiring provisions | -2,145 | -14,043 | -19,341 | -6,075 | -6,903 | -7,559 | -53,921 | -101,037 |
| Promote Trade: | ||||||||
| Implement free trade agreements with Morocco, Australia, and Central American countries 9 | — | -389 | -583 | -675 | -749 | -831 | -3,227 | -8,305 |
| Total budget proposals, including proposals assumed in the baseline | 6,860 | -12,135 | -35,233 | -29,188 | -37,491 | -61,015 | -175,062 | -1,122,115 |
| Total budget proposals, excluding proposals assumed in the baseline | 6,860 | -359 | -9,213 | -2,867 | -11,809 | -19,187 | -43,435 | -185,852 |
| Source | 2003 Actual |
Estimate | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | ||
| Individual income taxes | 793.7 | 765.4 | 873.8 | 956.5 | 1,049.3 | 1,133.4 | 1,209.9 |
| Corporation income taxes | 131.8 | 168.7 | 230.2 | 250.0 | 251.0 | 252.1 | 255.7 |
| Social insurance and retirement | |||||||
| receipts | 713.0 | 732.4 | 793.9 | 834.0 | 878.7 | 918.8 | 960.2 |
| (On-budget) | (189.1) | (198.4) | (218.8) | (230.9) | (242.4) | (251.2) | (261.2) |
| (Off-budget) | (523.8) | (534.0) | (575.1) | (603.1) | (636.3) | (667.6) | (698.9) |
| Excise taxes | 67.5 | 70.8 | 73.2 | 75.8 | 77.9 | 80.0 | 82.2 |
| Estate and gift taxes | 22.0 | 23.9 | 21.4 | 23.9 | 21.5 | 22.2 | 23.6 |
| Customs duties | 19.9 | 22.6 | 22.1 | 24.4 | 26.2 | 27.6 | 30.0 |
| Miscellaneous receipts | 34.5 | 34.3 | 36.5 | 41.2 | 46.2 | 51.2 | 54.8 |
| Adjustment for revenue uncertainty 1 | — | -20.0 | -15.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Total, receipts | 1,782.3 | 1,798.1 | 2,036.3 | 2,205.7 | 2,350.8 | 2,485.3 | 2,616.4 |
| (On-budget) | (1,258.5) | (1,264.1) | (1,461.2) | (1,602.5) | (1,714.5) | (1,817.7) | (1,917.5) |
| (Off-budget) | (523.8) | (534.0) | (575.1) | (603.1) | (636.3) | (667.6) | (698.9) |
| Projections | Average | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2004–2009 | ||
| GDP (billions of current dollars): | ||||||||
| CBO January | 11,629 | 12,243 | 12,814 | 13,389 | 14,023 | 14,686 | ||
| Blue Chip Consensus January 1 | 11,660 | 12,291 | 12,929 | 13,588 | 14,292 | 15,045 | ||
| 2005 Budget | 11,612 | 12,187 | 12,796 | 13,449 | 14,151 | 14,890 | ||
| Real GDP (chain-weighted): 2 | ||||||||
| CBO January | 4.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.4 | |
| Blue Chip Consensus January 1 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | |
| 2005 Budget | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | |
| Chain-weighted GDP Price Index: 2 | ||||||||
| CBO January | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | |
| Blue Chip Consensus January 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | |
| 2005 Budget | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | |
| Consumer Price Index (all-urban): 2 | ||||||||
| CBO January | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | |
| Blue Chip Consensus January 1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | |
| 2005 Budget | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | |
| Unemployment rate: 3 | ||||||||
| CBO January | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | |
| Blue Chip Consensus January 1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | |
| 2005 Budget | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | |
| Interest rates: 3 | ||||||||
| 91–day Treasury bills: | ||||||||
| CBO January | 1.3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.7 | |
| Blue Chip Consensus January 1 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.3 | |
| 2005 Budget | 1.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.3 | |
| 10–year Treasury notes: | ||||||||
| CBO January | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | |
| Blue Chip Consensus January 1 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | |
| 2005 Budget | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | |
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005–2009 | ||||||||
| Outlays: | ||||||||
| Discretionary: | ||||||||
| Defense (DOD) | 388 | 433 | 429 | 415 | 426 | 447 | 467 | 2,183 |
| Nondefense | 438 | 475 | 485 | 478 | 479 | 476 | 476 | 2,393 |
| Total, Discretionary | 826 | 908 | 914 | 892 | 904 | 923 | 942 | 4,576 |
| Mandatory: | ||||||||
| Social Security | 470 | 492 | 510 | 529 | 552 | 576 | 608 | 2,775 |
| Medicare | 246 | 266 | 290 | 336 | 372 | 393 | 418 | 1,809 |
| Medicaid and SCHIP | 165 | 183 | 188 | 198 | 213 | 232 | 251 | 1,081 |
| Other | 298 | 314 | 320 | 305 | 305 | 325 | 335 | 1,590 |
| Total, Mandatory | 1,179 | 1,254 | 1,308 | 1,368 | 1,441 | 1,527 | 1,612 | 7,256 |
| Net interest | 153 | 156 | 178 | 213 | 246 | 275 | 299 | 1,211 |
| Total Outlays | 2,158 | 2,319 | 2,400 | 2,473 | 2,592 | 2,724 | 2,853 | 13,043 |
| Receipts | 1,782 | 1,798 | 2,036 | 2,206 | 2,351 | 2,485 | 2,616 | 11,694 |
| Deficit 1 | -375 | -521 | -364 | -268 | -241 | -239 | -237 | -1,349 |
| On-budget deficit | -536 | -675 | -543 | -470 | -466 | -487 | -501 | -2,466 |
| Off-budget surplus | 161 | 154 | 179 | 202 | 225 | 248 | 263 | 1,117 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004–2008 | 2004–2013 | |||||||
| Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) | ||||||||
| Actuaries’ Estimate 1 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 56 | 58 | 60 | 178 | 534 |
| CBO Estimate 1 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 122 | 395 |
| President’s Budget Deficit Estimates | -521 | -364 | -268 | -241 | -239 | -237 | -1,632 | |
| As a percent of GDP | -4.5% | -3.0% | -2.1% | -1.8% | -1.7% | -1.6% | ||
| Administration’s Deficit Adjusted for CBO Estimate 2 | -516 | -357 | -251 | -224 | -223 | -220 | -1,571 | |
| As a percent of GDP | -4.5% | -3.0% | -2.0% | -1.7% | -1.6% | -1.5% | ||
|
Explanation of Difference in Estimates: The largest portion of the difference in these cost estimates is attributable to assumptions regarding beneficiary participation, market behavior, and cost growth rates. Even small differences in these assumptions can dramatically change the overall cost estimates. For example, CBO and the Medicare actuaries both assume comparable savings from private-plan management of the drug benefit. CBO, however, assumes that these savings will be realized earlier; the Medicare actuaries assume that it will take longer for plans to achieve maximum savings. |
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005–2009 | ||||||||
| Outlays: | ||||||||
| Discretionary: | ||||||||
| Defense (DOD) | 388 | 433 | 420 | 398 | 402 | 413 | 423 | 2,056 |
| Nondefense | 438 | 475 | 490 | 487 | 495 | 501 | 510 | 2,481 |
| Total, Discretionary | 826 | 908 | 910 | 885 | 896 | 914 | 933 | 4,537 |
| Mandatory: | ||||||||
| Social Security | 470 | 492 | 510 | 529 | 552 | 577 | 608 | 2,776 |
| Medicare | 246 | 266 | 290 | 336 | 372 | 393 | 418 | 1,809 |
| Medicaid and SCHIP | 165 | 182 | 188 | 198 | 214 | 233 | 252 | 1,086 |
| Other | 298 | 314 | 320 | 306 | 303 | 325 | 339 | 1,593 |
| Total, Mandatory | 1,179 | 1,254 | 1,309 | 1,370 | 1,441 | 1,528 | 1,618 | 7,265 |
| Net interest | 153 | 156 | 178 | 213 | 245 | 273 | 296 | 1,206 |
| Total Outlays | 2,158 | 2,319 | 2,397 | 2,468 | 2,583 | 2,715 | 2,847 | 13,008 |
| Receipts | 1,782 | 1,791 | 2,037 | 2,215 | 2,354 | 2,497 | 2,636 | 11,738 |
| Surplus/deficit 1 | -375 | -527 | -360 | -253 | -229 | -218 | -211 | -1,270 |
| On-budget deficit | -536 | -682 | -539 | -455 | -453 | -465 | -474 | -2,385 |
| Off-budget surplus | 161 | 154 | 179 | 202 | 224 | 247 | 263 | 1,115 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005–2009 | |||||||
| Current Services Baseline Deficit | -527 | -360 | -253 | -229 | -218 | -211 | -1,270 |
| Proposals: | |||||||
| Discretionary policy: | |||||||
| Department of Defense | — | -9 | -17 | -26 | -36 | -49 | -137 |
| Homeland security | — | -1 | -2 | -4 | -5 | -6 | -18 |
| Other spending | * | 6 | 12 | 21 | 31 | 43 | 113 |
| Subtotal, discretionary | * | -4 | -8 | -9 | -10 | -12 | -43 |
| Revenue proposals 1 | 7 | * | -13 | -8 | -19 | -29 | -69 |
| Mandatory proposals | -* | 1 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 33 |
| 2005 Budget Deficit 2 | -521 | -364 | -268 | -241 | -239 | -237 | -1,349 |
| Percent of GDP | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005–2009 | 2005–2014 | |||||||
| Budget Enforcement Act Baseline Deficits | -527 | -393 | -305 | -292 | -288 | -271 | -1,549 | |
| Extend certain tax provisions: | ||||||||
| Permanently extend individual income tax rate cuts | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -395 |
| Permanently extend estate and gift tax changes | — | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -9 | -180 |
| Extend other provisions of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts 1 | — | -11 | -29 | -29 | -28 | -44 | -139 | -414 |
| Subtotal, tax extenders | — | -12 | -30 | -30 | -30 | -46 | -148 | -990 |
| Assume emergencies are one-time only | — | 43 | 79 | 86 | 89 | 92 | 388 | |
| Adjust pay factor to more accurately reflect changes in pay costs | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Debt service related to all changes | — | * | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 27 | |
| Current Services Baseline Deficit | -527 | -360 | -253 | -229 | -218 | -211 | -1,270 | |
| Function | 2003 Actual | Estimate | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | ||
| Financing: | |||||||
| Unified budget deficit (-) | -375 | -521 | -364 | -268 | -241 | -239 | -237 |
| Financing other than the change in debt held by the public: | |||||||
| Net purchases (-) of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust | -20 | -1 | * | * | * | * | * |
| Changes in: 1 | |||||||
| Treasury operating cash balance | 26 | -* | — | — | — | — | — |
| Compensating balances 2 | -5 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Checks outstanding, etc. 3 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seigniorage on coins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Less: Net financing disbursements: | |||||||
| Direct loan financing accounts | -6 | -12 | -11 | -19 | -20 | -20 | -21 |
| Guaranteed loan financing accounts | -1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Total, financing other than the change in debt held by the public | 2 | 14 | -8 | -15 | -18 | -17 | -18 |
| Total, requirement to borrow from the public | -373 | -507 | -371 | -282 | -259 | -256 | -255 |
| Change in debt held by the public | 373 | 507 | 371 | 282 | 259 | 256 | 255 |
| Change in Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation: | |||||||
| Change in debt held by the public | 373 | 507 | 371 | 282 | 259 | 256 | 255 |
| Change in debt held by Government accounts | 188 | 219 | 275 | 311 | 333 | 357 | 378 |
| Change in other factors | 15 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total, change in debt subject to statutory limitation | 576 | 727 | 647 | 594 | 592 | 614 | 634 |
| Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year: | |||||||
| Debt issued by Treasury | 6,733 | 7,459 | 8,106 | 8,700 | 9,292 | 9,906 | 10,540 |
| Adjustment for discount, premium and coverage 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Total, debt subject to statutory limitation 5 | 6,738 | 7,464 | 8,111 | 8,705 | 9,297 | 9,911 | 10,545 |
| Debt Outstanding, End of Year: | |||||||
| Gross Federal debt: 6 | |||||||
| Debt issued by Treasury | 6,733 | 7,459 | 8,106 | 8,700 | 9,292 | 9,906 | 10,540 |
| Debt issued by other agencies | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 24 |
| Total, gross Federal debt | 6,760 | 7,486 | 8,133 | 8,726 | 9,318 | 9,931 | 10,564 |
| Held by: | |||||||
| Debt held by Government accounts | 2,846 | 3,066 | 3,341 | 3,652 | 3,985 | 4,342 | 4,720 |
| Debt held by the public 7 | 3,914 | 4,421 | 4,792 | 5,074 | 5,333 | 5,589 | 5,844 |
| As a percent of GDP | 36.1% | 38.6% | 39.8% | 40.1% | 40.2% | 40.0% | 39.8% |