July, 2010

29 July 2010

The Earth Systems Program at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) was developed to seek solutions to environment and resource security challenges by developing and promoting sustainable, scientifically sound, and transparent policies, practices, and technological developments.

To meet this goal the Earth Systems Program works in the following  areas:

1. Transparency. Improve dialogue and deliberation over and understanding of key environmental issues and challenges by transparency in environmental research, policy decisions, and building trust and communication between scientists, policy makers, and the public.
2. Technology. Create tools to aid researchers, scientists, and policymakers in analyzing and visualizing complex issues and systems.
3. Inquiry. Better scientific and public understanding of key socio-environmental and earth systems issues through undertaking and supporting systemic, multidisciplinary research that utilizes principles of scientific inquiry.
4. Policy. Promote policy to further national and international environmental and energy sustainability and security and advocate for political processes that engage key stakeholders and scientists in deliberations.
5. Partnership. Develop long term, multidisciplinary collaborations and partnerships between U.S. and foreign scientists and engineers to solve key environmental and technical issues.

An NBIC facility at Ft. Detrick, MD (Credit: US Army Corps of Engineers)

The Federal Register published a notice today from the Department of Health and Human Services detailing the transport of potentially infected laboratory workers at the new National Interagency Biodefense Campus (NIBC) in Ft. Detrick, MD.  The campus hosts researchers from a variety of agencies, including the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID), the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), and the National Institute of Health’s (NIH) National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID),which conduct research in Biosafety level  3 and 4 laboratories.  Such laboratories are required to work with dangerous pathogens, such as Bacillus anthracis (anthrax) and Ebolavirus sp (Ebola).

This weekly digest provides links to headlines that feature FAS projects, staff, and important issues. Stay up-to-date with FAS IN THE NEWS.

Roundup For Week Ending July 16, 2010

Mexican Drug Cartels’ Newest Weapon: Cold War Era Grenades Made in U.S.A – Washington Post – 16 July 2010:
“The administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush sent 300,000 hand grenades to friendly regimes in Central America to fight leftist insurgents in the civil wars of the 1980s and early 1990s, according to declassified military data obtained through the Freedom of Information Act by the Federation of American Scientists.”

Hard to Protect Helos From Insurgent RPG Fire – Army Times – 16 July 2010:
“Matt Schroeder, manager of the Arms Sales Monitoring Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said funding of these systems has been “money well spent,” as MANPADS have appeared in arms caches in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, in Afghanistan.”

Obama Plan Outlines Reductions in U.S. Nuclear Arsenal – Washington Post – 14 July 2010:
“The documents, which were sent in May to key members of the House and Senate Armed Services and Appropriations committees, were made public this week by the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists, two nonpartisan groups specializing in nuclear weapons…Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists said his analysis of NNSA’s stockpile plan showed spending of “a whopping $175 billion over the next 20 years for new nuclear weapons factories, testing and simulation facilities, and warhead modernizations.”

U.S. Plans to Increase Nuclear Spending – Los Angeles Times – 14 July 2010:
“We have to think carefully about what signal we’re sending to other countries,” said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

Obama Plans to Cut Up To 40 Percent of Nukes – Salon – 14 July 2010:
“The document was presented to Congress in May and posted Tuesday on the websites of the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists.”

Obama Plans to Cut Up To 40 Percent of Nukes – Associated Press – 14 July 2010:
“The document was presented to Congress in May and posted Tuesday on the websites of the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists.”
* Also ran in Baltimore Sun, Chicago Tribune, Boston Globe, Orlando Sentinel.

Fewer Nukes, More Cash: Energy Department Wants $175 Billion for Weapons Complex – Wired – 13 July 2010:
“According to an Energy Department plan submitted to Congress in May that the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists obtained and published, the department’s National Nuclear Security Administration proposes to slash the 5,000-warhead nuclear arsenal down to “approximately 3,000 to 3,500″ warheads. So far, so clear. Nukes going down. President Obama’s plan for a nuke-free world going up. But then the hedges come in. The Federation points out that the nuclear-arms reduction treaty with Russia making its way through the Senate, known as New START, would create a substantially smaller arsenal, allowing the U.S. to maintain up to 1550 deployed warheads. When not speaking for attribution, administration officials express hope that before the Obama leaves office, they’ll be able to conclude another treaty with Russia that cuts the arsenal even further.”

U.S. Details Planned Nuclear Stockpile Cut, Funding Priorities – Global Security Newswire – 13 July 2010:
“The United States foresees eliminating between 30 and 40 percent of its nuclear weapons within 12 years, slashing its existing stockpile of more than 5,100 weapons down to fewer than 3,500 bombs, the Federation of American Scientists concluded yesterday in an analysis of the nation’s stockpile management plan (see GSN, May 4; Hans Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, July 12). ”The 3,000 to 3,500 total warhead target is a ceiling,” Hans Kristensen, heads of the federation’s Nuclear Information Project, said in a statement. “Of course, the United States could reduce its arsenal to even lower levels through negotiated agreements with Russia and the other nuclear-weapon states.”

DOE Plan to Cut Nuke Weapons by 40 Percent – United Press International (UPI) – 13 July 2010:
“The Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists released the U.S. Department of Energy’s fiscal 2011 budget, which calls for reducing the arsenal to 3,000 to 3,500 warheads — as much as a 40 percent reduction.”

Iran Vows to Increased Enriched Uranium Stock Sixfold by 2011 – BusinessWeek – 12 July 2010:
“Enriching uranium to 90 percent from 20 percent accounts for about half the time needed to get the raw heavy metal into the concentrated form needed for a weapon, Federation of American Scientists physicist Ivan Oelrich said in a May 19 note. Iran is “perfectly capable” of enriching to 90 percent, he said.”

Entering the Secret World of Wikileaks, National Public Radio (NPR), Show: Fresh Air – 14 July 2010:
“Now I read that Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists Secrecy News blog was invited at some point to get involved with WikiLeaks and looked it over, and he’s somebody who believes in disclosure, and declined. Do you have cases like this where people who are interested in whistle-blowing and exposing government wrongdoing look at WikiLeaks and say, not so sure about this?”

–SCIENCE GROUPS RELEASE BUDGET PLAN PUBLICLY FOR FIRST TIME–

WASHINGTON DC (July 13, 2010) – The Obama administration is planning to cut the U.S. nuclear arsenal by as much as 40 percent by 2021, but also wants to spend nearly $175 billion over the next twenty years to build new facilities and to maintain and modify thousands of weapons, according to sections of an administration plan made public today by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

The proposal, the “FY2011 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan,” part of the Department of Energy’s proposed fiscal year 2011 budget, was drafted by DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and presented to members of Congress in May.

“Nuclear weapons are now a liability, not an asset, so the plan to reduce the U.S. nuclear stockpile is a step in the right direction.”  said Lisbeth Gronlund, co-director of UCS’s Global Security Program.

The plan calls for the United States to reduce its nuclear arsenal 30 to 40 percent from today’s total of approximately 5,000 weapons. Reductions already underway will reduce the arsenal to 4,700 weapons by the end of 2012. According to the plan, “the future NNSA infrastructure will support total stockpiles up to a range of approximately 3,000 to 3,500 [warheads],” about twice the number of warheads the New START treaty permits to be deployed on strategic forces. (For more details, see “Plan Promises Nuclear Reductions, but Few Savings,” a fact sheet prepared by FAS and UCS.)

“The 3,000 to 3,500 total warhead target is a ceiling,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “Of course, the United States could reduce its arsenal to even lower levels through negotiated agreements with Russia and the other nuclear weapon states.”

The plan also includes cost estimates beyond what NNSA has previously released. It calls for the United States to spend nearly $175 billion (in then-year dollars) from 2010 to 2030 on new weapons production, testing and simulation facilities, and on modernizing and extending the life of the remaining weapons in the arsenal. That price tag does not include the cost of maintaining and operating nuclear weapons delivery systems, which are covered by the Department of Defense budget.

Given NNSA’s spotty record for meeting deadlines and budgets, experts at FAS and UCS predict that the costs are likely to be higher.

The two science groups also questioned some of NNSA’s key assumptions. For example, they questioned the need to maintain the capability to support 3,000 to 3,500 weapons, even if the number of weapons in the stockpile dropped below 1,000.

“Weapons expenditures will remain high because the plan calls for retaining a large, capable weapons complex independent of the size of the arsenal,” said Gronlund. “This could be a problem for deeper reductions that are needed since it would be possible for the United States to rapidly rebuild.”

“That calculation makes no sense,” said Kristensen. “It is like saying that today’s stockpile of about 5,000 weapons requires a complex of nearly the same size and cost as when the stockpile had 8,000 warheads. Given the size of the federal deficit, the Obama administration needs to think more clearly about how it spends the taxpayers’ money.”

Finally, the groups cautioned the Obama administration against against making extensive modifications to U.S. nuclear weapons in the future, at a time when the United States is seeking additional reductions with Russia and other nuclear weapon states and needs the support of non-nuclear countries to implement the administration’s nonproliferation agenda.

“Not only could extensive ‘improvements’ reduce the reliability of the warheads, they would send the wrong message when we are trying to get other countries to reduce their arsenals,” Gronlund said.

The “FY2011 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan” consists of five sections (three are unclassified):

·      FY 2011 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan Summary (unclassified)

·      Annex A – FY 2011 Stockpile Stewardship Plan (unclassified)

·      Annex B – FY 2011 Stockpile Management Plan (classified)

·      Annex C – FY 2011 Science, Technology, and Engineering Report on Stockpile Stewardship Criteria and Assessment of Stockpile Stewardship Program (classified), and

·      Annex D – FY 2011 Biennial Plan and Budget Assessment on the Modernization and Refurbishment of the Nuclear Security Complex (unclassified)

Analysis by Hans Kristensen.
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BIO: Hans Kristensen

PRESS ROOM:  News Release

Dead hippopotamus in Lake George, Uganda. (Source: New Vision)

In late June, 30 hippopotamuses died of anthrax in Queen Elizabeth National Park, Uganda, a popular safari location. These hippopotamuses likely contracted Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, from spores that had been lying dormant in the lake shore soil for 6 years, originating from an anthrax outbreak in 2004 which killed approximately 300 hippos. Because B. anthracis spores are hardy and can survive for decades in the soil, proper disposal of infected carcasses is very important to control future outbreaks. The New Vision reports that the State Minister for the Animal Industry in Uganda, Major Rwamirama, recommended that the carcasses should be moved and the infected areas sprayed – the article did not mention with what. Major Rwamirama also mentioned that burying the carcasses was expensive, ~$440 per carcass, and unreliable, since burial does not kill the hardy spores.