http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2006/05/rethinking_intelligence_analys.html Secrecy News from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy Thu, 24 May 2012 10:04:11 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2006/05/rethinking_intelligence_analys.html/comment-page-1#comment-564 Rob Folker Thu, 18 May 2006 01:18:45 +0000 http://fasweb.beacontec.com/blog/secrecy/2006/05/rethinking_intelligence_analysis.html#comment-564 There is no disagreement between Brendan's comments and my paper, which was graciously made available by FAS. In fact I make the same argument -- that good intelligence analysis is a mix of both art & science. I provide evidence in my paper that certain analytic tools can help the analyst put specific intelligence problems in the proper analytic framework, not by eliminating the role that intuition can play in analysis, but by exposing subconscious mental shortcuts and ensuring that the problem is systematically, thoroughly, and sufficiently analyzed to include all possible alternatives. Without using these structuring techniques, analysts will often jump to conclusions and only look for data that supports their initial belief ignoring contradictory evidence. These tools provide a means to structure a problem; they are not a substitute for thinking but can enhance discussion and thought. Ultimately, one must be accountable for one's judgments -- the quality of the analysis depends on the soundness of one's thinking. There is no disagreement between Brendan’s comments and my paper, which was graciously made available by FAS. In fact I make the same argument — that good intelligence analysis is a mix of both art & science. I provide evidence in my paper that certain analytic tools can help the analyst put specific intelligence problems in the proper analytic framework, not by eliminating the role that intuition can play in analysis, but by exposing subconscious mental shortcuts and ensuring that the problem is systematically, thoroughly, and sufficiently analyzed to include all possible alternatives. Without using these structuring techniques, analysts will often jump to conclusions and only look for data that supports their initial belief ignoring contradictory evidence. These tools provide a means to structure a problem; they are not a substitute for thinking but can enhance discussion and thought. Ultimately, one must be accountable for one’s judgments — the quality of the analysis depends on the soundness of one’s thinking.

]]> http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2006/05/rethinking_intelligence_analys.html/comment-page-1#comment-563 Brendan Mon, 08 May 2006 19:40:57 +0000 http://fasweb.beacontec.com/blog/secrecy/2006/05/rethinking_intelligence_analysis.html#comment-563 Even with science acting as the backbone of our intelligence analysis, there must be a consistant judgement that not only proves to be strategic but to also serve as judgement that is willing to adapt to obstacles that are forever changing. Without superb judgement, our sciences would not evolve into the more advanced methods of problem solving that we have today. Advanced judgement not only serves to advance our sciences but also serves to enforce these methods or to question them. The human mind should always be active in ways other than to solve a scientific hypothesis or mathematical equations. I do not believe that good judgement will ever be substituted by any kind of what we would consider as an advanced method of problem solving. Both science and intellectual intelligence must work together in order to create answers to the difficult questions that face our intelligence community. Even with science acting as the backbone of our intelligence analysis, there must be a consistant judgement that not only proves to be strategic but to also serve as judgement that is willing to adapt to obstacles that are forever changing. Without superb judgement, our sciences would not evolve into the more advanced methods of problem solving that we have today. Advanced judgement not only serves to advance our sciences but also serves to enforce these methods or to question them. The human mind should always be active in ways other than to solve a scientific hypothesis or mathematical equations. I do not believe that good judgement will ever be substituted by any kind of what we would consider as an advanced method of problem solving. Both science and intellectual intelligence must work together in order to create answers to the difficult questions that face our intelligence community.

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