A GEOINT Analysis of Terrorism in Afghanistan
May 5th, 2009 by Steven AftergoodIt is possible to discern potentially significant patterns in terrorist activity through an analysis of geospatial intelligence information concerning terrorist incidents, the DNI Open Source Center (OSC) says.
A recent OSC study of terrorism in Afghanistan (large PDF) illustrates the growing sophistication of geointelligence analysis tools. By analyzing parameters such as location, timing, frequency, lethality and other such characteristics, the OSC study identified “hotspots” for terrorist activity and changes over time. It also provided data for evaluating an OSC predictive model of terrorism in Afghanistan.
The study “revealed spatial patterns and a distribution of incidents that would be valuable to those interested in the dynamics of Afghanistan’s security.”
Some of the resulting conclusions are trivial or obvious. Thus, OSC found that terrorist incidents are more likely to occur in populated areas of the country than in barren wastelands. Other conclusions concerning seasonal variations and changes in target distributions may have more practical significance.
The OSC study has not been approved for public release, but a copy was obtained by Secrecy News. See “Afghanistan — Geospatial Analysis Reveals Patterns in Terrorist Incidents 2004-2008,” Open Source Center, April 20, 2009 (in a very large 19 MB PDF file).
The study features “interactive GeoPDFs” that are embedded in the document. In order to open them, it is necessary to activate the “Layers” function in Adobe Reader. To do so, click on “View,” then select “Navigation Tabs” and click on “Layers.”
May 6th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
So they’ve determined terrorism occurs most in Afghanistan where there are lots of terrorists blending in with the populace and not much government to put them down.
Outstanding.
May 7th, 2009 at 12:48 am
speed of information, pervasive literacy, are structurally obsoleting state sponsored red herrings. the sophistication of the marketplace is outpacing the security establishments ability to furnish its civilians with acceptable sacrificial lambs
May 7th, 2009 at 1:21 am
funny but helpful in some way..The same Algo should be used to place WMDs & come up with probable locations.
May 12th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Thank you George Smith for completely misunderstanding the entire article. They are determining the hotspots for terrorism in Afghanistan and Afghanistan ONLY in order to predict attacks and prevent them. Maybe moveon.org has a better article for you, or maybe you can just dismiss what I said with an ignorant, sarcastic comment.
May 13th, 2009 at 9:19 am
Who can we contact to get the data visualization tools? Other organizations would benefit from creating reports like this.
May 25th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I think they may have used http://www.tableausoftware.com/ for data visualization.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:07 pm
[...] released” appears to mean about three months ago – here’s where it first appeared 5 May 09, courtesy of anti-secrecy advocate and infosleuth Steven Aftergood at the Federation of [...]
July 31st, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Canadian Press wire service is just catching up on this one:
http://is.gd/1WQKl
“Al-Qaida and other hard-core terrorist groups are behind only a fraction of the attacks carried out in Afghanistan over a four-year period, says a recently completed U.S. intelligence analysis.
The study by the Washington-based Open Source Center paints a nuanced picture of the insurgency as violence reached a new crescendo in July.
The analysis shows that between 2004 and 2008, ethnic Pashtun Taliban were responsible – or most likely responsible – for 97 per cent of the bombings, ambushes and kidnappings….”