FAS Strategic Security Blog

(Updated January 26, 2007)

British Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines have at least 15 years more service life in them, and the U.K. government does not have to make a decision now on whether to replace them with a new class of submarines, Richard Garwin told BBC radio Tuesday.

Garwin, who is a member of the Federation of American Scientists Board of Directors and a long-term adviser to the U.S. government on defense matters, is in Britain to testify before the House of Commons Defence Select Committee on the future of Britain’s nuclear deterrent.

The U.K. government announced on December 4, 2006, that it had decided to replace its current Vanguard-class sea-launched ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) with a new class to enter operation in 2024. If approved by the parliament, the plan would extend Britain’s nuclear era into the 2050s.

According to the U.K. government, a decision to build a new new class must be made now because the Vanguard-class SSBNs only have a have a design life of 25 years. But Garwin says that the submarines have a minimum design life of 25 years, which can be extended by at least another 15 years. A decision made now is premature and unwise, Garwin told BBC, because the large Trident missiles may not be necessary 15 years from now.

New additions: Garwin testimony / House of Lords debate

Background: BBC Today | Garwin Archive at FAS | Britain’s Next Nuclear Era

written by hkristensen

The FAS has obtained, via the Freedom of Information Act, a complete list of “unfavorable determinations” resulting from end-use checks of US arms exports (and export requests) performed by the State Department. The cases underscore the importance of America’s rigorous arms export control system and the danger of relaxing these controls, even on transfers to close allies.
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written by Matt Schroeder

In a major foreign policy blunder, China reportedly has conducted an anti-satellite (ASAT) test. First reported in Aviation Week and Space Technology, China allegedly used a medium-range ballistic missile to launch an unknown payload that slammed into the Feng Yun (FY-1C) polar-orbit weather satellite approximately 865 km (537 miles) above the earth on January 11.

China has long called for international talks to set limits on military space activities, but this has been rejected by the Bush administration, which also wants to develop and deploy ASAT weapons. On January 11, the same day China conducted the test, a senior State Department official told an Air Force military space conference that “there is no arms race in space that needs to be addressed” by arms control treaties.
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written by hkristensen

Representatives Lowey (D-NY) and Emanuel (D-IL) are circulating a Dear Colleague letter to be delivered to the President asking him to update the Congress on the National Strategy on Pandemic Influenza. Released 8 months ago, the strategy includes over 300 activities designed to prepare the nation for a potential influenza pandemic. However, many of the activities will also prepare the nation for other public health emergencies including bioterrorism events. Since the activities are tied to benchmarks, Congress is looking to ensure that plans are moving forward.

Dear Colleague:
Please join us in sending the attached letter to President Bush requesting an update on the progress made in federal efforts to prepare for a possible pandemic flu outbreak.

Public health experts tell us it is a question of when, not if, an influenza pandemic will strike. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that the avian flu has infected 258 people worldwide, killing 154 of them, with the most recent deaths occurring in Egypt just last month.

On May 3, 2006, President Bush released the federal government’s National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Plan (NSPI) to coordinate federal efforts to prepare for a potential outbreak. The plan contains more than 300 activities to be performed by various federal agencies that are tied to specific accountability measures and timelines.

In our judgment, the eight months since the release of the NSPI are sufficient for the federal government to have made significant progress in executing at least a portion of its directives. While the status of many of the NSPI recommendations are listed on the federal pandemic flu website, not all of the relevant information has been made public.

Congress has a responsibility to carefully monitor the progress of the Administration in achieving the goals of its own plan. If you would like to sign this letter or have any questions, please contact Jean Doyle in Rep. Lowey’s office at jean.doyle@mail.house.gov, or Lauren Aronson in Rep. Emanuel’s office at lauren.aronson@mail.house.gov.

written by Michael Stebbins

With the war against Islamist fighters drawing to a close, Somalia’s transitional government and its foreign allies now face several Herculean tasks: bringing to heel the warlords and militias that have terrorized the country for fifteen years, winning over the various clans and sub-clans that dominate Somali politics, rebuilding the nation’s devastated infrastructure, etc, etc, etc.

In the interest of international security, I would add one more: recovering the dozens of shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles reportedly distributed to the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), and sanctioning the suppliers.
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written by Matt Schroeder