Comments on: A Closer Look at China’s New SSBNs http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/a_closer_look_at_chinas_new_ss.php Comments and analyses of important national and international security issues Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:37:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Tam http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/a_closer_look_at_chinas_new_ss.php/comment-page-1#comment-272 Tam Fri, 28 Dec 2007 07:20:54 +0000 http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/a_closer_look_at_chinas_new_ss.php#comment-272 Tam: I examined the photo closely and it looked that the flood holes are not flushed at the surface but are openings from doors that hinged inwards. Its likely the holes are self closing by pressure activation. The turtle back is higher than the Xia's, which matches the much greater increased size of the JL-2 over the JL-1. Thie turtleback design is taken from the Xia except for the additional row of flood holes. The basis of this design is in fact from the Delta II class SSBNs, which feature a similar turtleback with pressure opened and closed flood holes near the rim. The Jin does not look like a Xia by looking at the pattern of limber holes and the sail. Rather, the sail and the limber holes are straight out of the 093 Shang class. If you see pictures of the 093, the holes and the sail are the same. The 094 is literally an 093 stretched and added with a turtle back. There is a new update on the Google Earth Xiaopingdao image btw. The Jin previously seen in no longer there but its companion, an 093 Shang is there. This is the first time an 093 is seen in GE. The 093 is slightly thicker and longer (95m vs. 90m) compared to the 091 Hans. Tam: I examined the photo closely and it looked that the flood holes are not flushed at the surface but are openings from doors that hinged inwards. Its likely the holes are self closing by pressure activation.

The turtle back is higher than the Xia’s, which matches the much greater increased size of the JL-2 over the JL-1.

Thie turtleback design is taken from the Xia except for the additional row of flood holes. The basis of this design is in fact from the Delta II class SSBNs, which feature a similar turtleback with pressure opened and closed flood holes near the rim.

The Jin does not look like a Xia by looking at the pattern of limber holes and the sail. Rather, the sail and the limber holes are straight out of the 093 Shang class. If you see pictures of the 093, the holes and the sail are the same. The 094 is literally an 093 stretched and added with a turtle back.

There is a new update on the Google Earth Xiaopingdao image btw. The Jin previously seen in no longer there but its companion, an 093 Shang is there. This is the first time an 093 is seen in GE. The 093 is slightly thicker and longer (95m vs. 90m) compared to the 091 Hans.

]]> By: BWJ http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/a_closer_look_at_chinas_new_ss.php/comment-page-1#comment-271 BWJ Tue, 16 Oct 2007 21:04:27 +0000 http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/a_closer_look_at_chinas_new_ss.php#comment-271 BWJ: Wow, it really does not look that quiet with lots of opportunities (topside at least) for noise generation. Also it appears that the launch tubes were added almost as a design afterthought. It would be interesting to see the below waterline detail as well from an above water stability perspective. <b>Reply: </b>Yes the new design appears to be much closer to that of the Xia-class than I think was anticipated by many. It's almost like a stretched Xia rebuilt around the new Julang-2. And since the first Jin-class sub has already been in Xiaopingdao, there're probably a busy group of U.S. analysts analyzing the sound-signature right now. HK BWJ: Wow, it really does not look that quiet with lots of opportunities (topside at least) for noise generation. Also it appears that the launch tubes were added almost as a design afterthought. It would be interesting to see the below waterline detail as well from an above water stability perspective.

Reply: Yes the new design appears to be much closer to that of the Xia-class than I think was anticipated by many. It’s almost like a stretched Xia rebuilt around the new Julang-2. And since the first Jin-class sub has already been in Xiaopingdao, there’re probably a busy group of U.S. analysts analyzing the sound-signature right now. HK

]]> By: JF http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/a_closer_look_at_chinas_new_ss.php/comment-page-1#comment-270 JF Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:33:33 +0000 http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/a_closer_look_at_chinas_new_ss.php#comment-270 JF: Decision makers in China have obviously listened to General Pace's suggestion on his last visit to China. The friendly general basically told the Chinese that they need to show their strength, otherwise their oriental modesty could be mistaken for weakness. The well-meaning general got what he wished. There will be more of such leaks as the tension between China and Taiwan increases. Maybe even a full-range flight test of JL-2 if it gets really bad. The most parsimonious interpretation for the release of the image is that China feels no need to hide their nuclear crown jewels - meaning that it probably views first-strike counterforce attack on the submarine base exceedingly unlikely. Their confidence suggests that they will show the world more in the future. [edited] <b>Reply: </b>Two reactions: One, I think General Pace's point actually was that China should be more transparent or else it would create mistrust about its intensions (not that it would be seen as weak). Two, whether or not release of the image shows anything about the Chinese government's perceptions of US targeting of Huludao is, I think, not clear. In a crisis or war, Huludao would probably be a target, and China probably anticipates this, image or not. But it would indeed be a good thing if the Chinese and U.S. governments find such a scenario exceedingly unlikely. If the image is indeed a semi-government release, then it could demonstrate that China is trying to be more transparent about some of its major force developments. Just as it has gradually been providing more information about its nuclear policy and doctrine since 2000. So you're probably right that we're going to see more of this. HK JF: Decision makers in China have obviously listened to General Pace’s suggestion on his last visit to China. The friendly general basically told the Chinese that they need to show their strength, otherwise their oriental modesty could be mistaken for weakness. The well-meaning general got what he wished. There will be more of such leaks as the tension between China and Taiwan increases. Maybe even a full-range flight test of JL-2 if it gets really bad. The most parsimonious interpretation for the release of the image is that China feels no need to hide their nuclear crown jewels – meaning that it probably views first-strike counterforce attack on the submarine base exceedingly unlikely. Their confidence suggests that they will show the world more in the future. [edited]

Reply: Two reactions: One, I think General Pace’s point actually was that China should be more transparent or else it would create mistrust about its intensions (not that it would be seen as weak). Two, whether or not release of the image shows anything about the Chinese government’s perceptions of US targeting of Huludao is, I think, not clear. In a crisis or war, Huludao would probably be a target, and China probably anticipates this, image or not. But it would indeed be a good thing if the Chinese and U.S. governments find such a scenario exceedingly unlikely.

If the image is indeed a semi-government release, then it could demonstrate that China is trying to be more transparent about some of its major force developments. Just as it has gradually been providing more information about its nuclear policy and doctrine since 2000. So you’re probably right that we’re going to see more of this. HK

]]>