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	<title>Comments on: Oh, No!  Not another “Uranium Dirty Bomb” Story!</title>
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	<link>http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php</link>
	<description>Comments and analyses of important national and international security issues</description>
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		<title>By: thermopile</title>
		<link>http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php/comment-page-1#comment-289</link>
		<dc:creator>thermopile</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Dec 2007 13:10:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php#comment-289</guid>
		<description>I agree that there is something fishy with the U-238 numbers.  4.89E9 Bq implies almost 400 kg of U-238. But the U-235 numbers are spot-on with natural uranium.&lt;p&gt;
The 2E5 Bq shown for U-235 implies about 2.5g (at 8E4 Bq/g).  In the field, if the detector is held right on the sample (which can be done with the Inspector 1000), we usually multiply by 3 to account for the solid angle.  This gives about 7.5g of U-235 -- which implies 0.75% U-235 if the total sample is 1 kg, as stated in the report.  0.75% is synonymous with &lt;b&gt;natural uranium&lt;/b&gt;, no enrichment.&lt;p&gt;
I can&#039;t explain the very high activity seen for U-238.  It&#039;s hard to &quot;mask&quot; or spoof spectroscopic detectors - if you tried to sneak in Co-60, Ba-133, or another commonly available radiation source, the spectroscopic detector would identify it as such.  The only &quot;masking&quot; isotope would be Th-230, which is a daughter product in the decay chain of U-238 and gives off some characteristic gamma rays that are energetic enough to measure.  If you somehow got a quantity of Th-230 (which is hard because it&#039;s not commercially available), you could just maybe fool the detector into thinking there is a lot of U-238 there.  But that&#039;s a long shot.  The simpler explanation is &quot;operator error.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree that there is something fishy with the U-238 numbers.  4.89E9 Bq implies almost 400 kg of U-238. But the U-235 numbers are spot-on with natural uranium.
<p>
The 2E5 Bq shown for U-235 implies about 2.5g (at 8E4 Bq/g).  In the field, if the detector is held right on the sample (which can be done with the Inspector 1000), we usually multiply by 3 to account for the solid angle.  This gives about 7.5g of U-235 &#8212; which implies 0.75% U-235 if the total sample is 1 kg, as stated in the report.  0.75% is synonymous with <b>natural uranium</b>, no enrichment.</p>
<p>
I can&#8217;t explain the very high activity seen for U-238.  It&#8217;s hard to &#8220;mask&#8221; or spoof spectroscopic detectors &#8211; if you tried to sneak in Co-60, Ba-133, or another commonly available radiation source, the spectroscopic detector would identify it as such.  The only &#8220;masking&#8221; isotope would be Th-230, which is a daughter product in the decay chain of U-238 and gives off some characteristic gamma rays that are energetic enough to measure.  If you somehow got a quantity of Th-230 (which is hard because it&#8217;s not commercially available), you could just maybe fool the detector into thinking there is a lot of U-238 there.  But that&#8217;s a long shot.  The simpler explanation is &#8220;operator error.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Marcello Corno</title>
		<link>http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php/comment-page-1#comment-288</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcello Corno</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Dec 2007 15:14:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php#comment-288</guid>
		<description>From a different point of view Uranium is a really good &quot;dirty&quot; bomb material, on one hand, not being exceptionally radioactive, it can be handled more easily than much more radioactive materials, on the other hand it still is radioactive and most people associate it with &quot;nuclear things&quot;. A uranium &quot;powered&quot; dirty bomb would possibly do more actual damage with chunks of a heavy metal flying around, but the people reaction would be absolutely comparable with real, more effective bombs. 

The &quot;terror&quot; effect would be comparable, while being easier to obtain. 

For a while in Baghdad insurgents placed gas tanks near IEDs. the gas itself was harmless or just slightly irritating  but the psychological effect of the IED augmented    manifold.

Thanks for posting, it&#039;s always interesting to read informed thoughts.

Marcello



REPLY:  This is an interesting point that I confess I had not thought of:  What difference does it make how dangerous uranium really is?  Dirty bombs are often called weapons of mass disruption rather than weapons of mass destruction because the damage they do might be more from social and psychological factors than actual physical damage.  So if everyone &lt;i&gt;thinks&lt;/i&gt; that uranium is dangerous, it might have much the same of effect as if uranium actually were dangerous.  Certainly an interesting idea to consider.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From a different point of view Uranium is a really good &#8220;dirty&#8221; bomb material, on one hand, not being exceptionally radioactive, it can be handled more easily than much more radioactive materials, on the other hand it still is radioactive and most people associate it with &#8220;nuclear things&#8221;. A uranium &#8220;powered&#8221; dirty bomb would possibly do more actual damage with chunks of a heavy metal flying around, but the people reaction would be absolutely comparable with real, more effective bombs. </p>
<p>The &#8220;terror&#8221; effect would be comparable, while being easier to obtain. </p>
<p>For a while in Baghdad insurgents placed gas tanks near IEDs. the gas itself was harmless or just slightly irritating  but the psychological effect of the IED augmented    manifold.</p>
<p>Thanks for posting, it&#8217;s always interesting to read informed thoughts.</p>
<p>Marcello</p>
<p>REPLY:  This is an interesting point that I confess I had not thought of:  What difference does it make how dangerous uranium really is?  Dirty bombs are often called weapons of mass disruption rather than weapons of mass destruction because the damage they do might be more from social and psychological factors than actual physical damage.  So if everyone <i>thinks</i> that uranium is dangerous, it might have much the same of effect as if uranium actually were dangerous.  Certainly an interesting idea to consider.</p>
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		<title>By: Passerby</title>
		<link>http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php/comment-page-1#comment-287</link>
		<dc:creator>Passerby</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Dec 2007 19:48:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php#comment-287</guid>
		<description>Thanks for the post Ivan. I agree with you that the dirty bomb is a poor use for the U-235, especially if it had been separated to greater than 90% concentration. But then again, also as you alluded to, as a means of generating terror, the attempted sale at that price of such a quantity of pure U-235 is rather worrisome, especially because it demonstrates the active black market in pure U-235. Initially I take at face value the claims of the isotope ratio - as time passes if that doesn&#039;t hold up, then the credibility of those making the claim will be tarnished. With regard to your calculation of the 400 kg of U-238, perhaps you might estimate the associated mass of the U-235 under the assumption of nearly 100% purity. The same analysis as you did for U-238 but for U-235: 2E5 on the meter and 0.8E5 for the Bqs/g, so 3 grams divided by the geometric efficiency factor between source and detector, which as you point out, we don&#039;t know, but under some reasonable assumptions, the implied mass of U-235 seems comparable to that reported, approximately 0.5 kg.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for the post Ivan. I agree with you that the dirty bomb is a poor use for the U-235, especially if it had been separated to greater than 90% concentration. But then again, also as you alluded to, as a means of generating terror, the attempted sale at that price of such a quantity of pure U-235 is rather worrisome, especially because it demonstrates the active black market in pure U-235. Initially I take at face value the claims of the isotope ratio &#8211; as time passes if that doesn&#8217;t hold up, then the credibility of those making the claim will be tarnished. With regard to your calculation of the 400 kg of U-238, perhaps you might estimate the associated mass of the U-235 under the assumption of nearly 100% purity. The same analysis as you did for U-238 but for U-235: 2E5 on the meter and 0.8E5 for the Bqs/g, so 3 grams divided by the geometric efficiency factor between source and detector, which as you point out, we don&#8217;t know, but under some reasonable assumptions, the implied mass of U-235 seems comparable to that reported, approximately 0.5 kg.</p>
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		<title>By: kestasjk</title>
		<link>http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php/comment-page-1#comment-286</link>
		<dc:creator>kestasjk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:45:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php#comment-286</guid>
		<description>Thanks for that, I wish the media would consult an expert like yourself before posting these stories</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for that, I wish the media would consult an expert like yourself before posting these stories</p>
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