Comments on: The Future of US Missile Defense in Poland http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/12/the_future_of_us_missile_defen.php Comments and analyses of important national and international security issues Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:37:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Marek Swierczynski http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/12/the_future_of_us_missile_defen.php/comment-page-1#comment-2902 Marek Swierczynski Tue, 13 May 2008 07:45:58 +0000 http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/12/the_future_of_us_missile_defen.php#comment-2902 A few months after the above post was relevant, the situation looks gloomier and the talks are reported to be close to a stall. The hawkish approach to the deal, adopted by the Tusk government and personally by Radek Sikorski, seems to taken Poland nowhere nearer the agreement that satisfies both parties. The emphasis on financial and military compensations for the alleged growth of rosks for Poland makes the talks very difficult and the agreement almost impossible in the last months of Bush presidency. And the future is unknown as there is no clear leader in the presidential contest in the US. Mr Tusk is quite right to demand what he thinks is needed but many say there is more at stake than just a fair deal. With the previous government it seemed that Poland's security in the long term depends on the installation of the MD elements. Now the prevailing mood seems to be: no shield - no problem. But Mr Tusk knows - or should know - that for the opposition it would be a very strong argument if he drops the shield. It would almost certainly bury his presidential bid in 2010 and very likely outpost his government in next parliamentary elections. The internal politics as well as some strategic arguments speak in favour of the MD deal even if the real currency balance seems less so. A few months after the above post was relevant, the situation looks gloomier and the talks are reported to be close to a stall. The hawkish approach to the deal, adopted by the Tusk government and personally by Radek Sikorski, seems to taken Poland nowhere nearer the agreement that satisfies both parties. The emphasis on financial and military compensations for the alleged growth of rosks for Poland makes the talks very difficult and the agreement almost impossible in the last months of Bush presidency. And the future is unknown as there is no clear leader in the presidential contest in the US. Mr Tusk is quite right to demand what he thinks is needed but many say there is more at stake than just a fair deal. With the previous government it seemed that Poland’s security in the long term depends on the installation of the MD elements. Now the prevailing mood seems to be: no shield – no problem. But Mr Tusk knows – or should know – that for the opposition it would be a very strong argument if he drops the shield. It would almost certainly bury his presidential bid in 2010 and very likely outpost his government in next parliamentary elections. The internal politics as well as some strategic arguments speak in favour of the MD deal even if the real currency balance seems less so.

]]> By: Kyle - Atlantic Review http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/12/the_future_of_us_missile_defen.php/comment-page-1#comment-290 Kyle - Atlantic Review Thu, 17 Jan 2008 19:56:42 +0000 http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/12/the_future_of_us_missile_defen.php#comment-290 Kasia and Ivan - this is a great post, and was very helpful for me. I linked to it in a post I put up today: The harder line by the new Polish government is not a surprise [linked here], but nonetheless will increase uncertainty for a project that is already facing domestic opposition in Europe, official opposition from Russia, and is not too popular among Democrats in Congress either – all this during a US election year. The post also answers a question you may be able to answer: 'I wonder if Poland's harder line signals the death of Rumsfeld’s unequivocally pro-American "New Europe'?" You can find the full article here: <a href="http://www.atlanticreview.org/archives/969-Euro-Missile-Talks-Are-Back,-Leaving-New-Europe-Behind.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.atlanticreview.org/archives/969-Euro-Missile-Talks-Are-Back,-Leaving-New-Europe-Behind.html</a> Kasia and Ivan – this is a great post, and was very helpful for me. I linked to it in a post I put up today:

The harder line by the new Polish government is not a surprise [linked here], but nonetheless will increase uncertainty for a project that is already facing domestic opposition in Europe, official opposition from Russia, and is not too popular among Democrats in Congress either – all this during a US election year.

The post also answers a question you may be able to answer: ‘I wonder if Poland’s harder line signals the death of Rumsfeld’s unequivocally pro-American “New Europe’?”

You can find the full article here:

http://www.atlanticreview.org/archives/969-Euro-Missile-Talks-Are-Back,-Leaving-New-Europe-Behind.html

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