FAS in the News

Posted on July 16, 2010 by Dr. Y

This weekly digest provides links to headlines that feature FAS projects, staff, and important issues. Stay up-to-date with FAS IN THE NEWS.

Roundup For Week Ending July 16, 2010

Mexican Drug Cartels’ Newest Weapon: Cold War Era Grenades Made in U.S.A – Washington Post – 16 July 2010:
“The administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush sent 300,000 hand grenades to friendly regimes in Central America to fight leftist insurgents in the civil wars of the 1980s and early 1990s, according to declassified military data obtained through the Freedom of Information Act by the Federation of American Scientists.”

Hard to Protect Helos From Insurgent RPG Fire – Army Times – 16 July 2010:
“Matt Schroeder, manager of the Arms Sales Monitoring Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said funding of these systems has been “money well spent,” as MANPADS have appeared in arms caches in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, in Afghanistan.”

Obama Plan Outlines Reductions in U.S. Nuclear Arsenal – Washington Post – 14 July 2010:
“The documents, which were sent in May to key members of the House and Senate Armed Services and Appropriations committees, were made public this week by the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists, two nonpartisan groups specializing in nuclear weapons…Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists said his analysis of NNSA’s stockpile plan showed spending of “a whopping $175 billion over the next 20 years for new nuclear weapons factories, testing and simulation facilities, and warhead modernizations.”

U.S. Plans to Increase Nuclear Spending – Los Angeles Times – 14 July 2010:
“We have to think carefully about what signal we’re sending to other countries,” said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

Obama Plans to Cut Up To 40 Percent of Nukes – Salon – 14 July 2010:
“The document was presented to Congress in May and posted Tuesday on the websites of the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists.”

Obama Plans to Cut Up To 40 Percent of Nukes – Associated Press – 14 July 2010:
“The document was presented to Congress in May and posted Tuesday on the websites of the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists.”
* Also ran in Baltimore Sun, Chicago Tribune, Boston Globe, Orlando Sentinel.

Fewer Nukes, More Cash: Energy Department Wants $175 Billion for Weapons Complex – Wired – 13 July 2010:
“According to an Energy Department plan submitted to Congress in May that the Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists obtained and published, the department’s National Nuclear Security Administration proposes to slash the 5,000-warhead nuclear arsenal down to “approximately 3,000 to 3,500″ warheads. So far, so clear. Nukes going down. President Obama’s plan for a nuke-free world going up. But then the hedges come in. The Federation points out that the nuclear-arms reduction treaty with Russia making its way through the Senate, known as New START, would create a substantially smaller arsenal, allowing the U.S. to maintain up to 1550 deployed warheads. When not speaking for attribution, administration officials express hope that before the Obama leaves office, they’ll be able to conclude another treaty with Russia that cuts the arsenal even further.”

U.S. Details Planned Nuclear Stockpile Cut, Funding Priorities – Global Security Newswire – 13 July 2010:
“The United States foresees eliminating between 30 and 40 percent of its nuclear weapons within 12 years, slashing its existing stockpile of more than 5,100 weapons down to fewer than 3,500 bombs, the Federation of American Scientists concluded yesterday in an analysis of the nation’s stockpile management plan (see GSN, May 4; Hans Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, July 12). ”The 3,000 to 3,500 total warhead target is a ceiling,” Hans Kristensen, heads of the federation’s Nuclear Information Project, said in a statement. “Of course, the United States could reduce its arsenal to even lower levels through negotiated agreements with Russia and the other nuclear-weapon states.”

DOE Plan to Cut Nuke Weapons by 40 Percent – United Press International (UPI) – 13 July 2010:
“The Federation of American Scientists and the Union of Concerned Scientists released the U.S. Department of Energy’s fiscal 2011 budget, which calls for reducing the arsenal to 3,000 to 3,500 warheads — as much as a 40 percent reduction.”

Iran Vows to Increased Enriched Uranium Stock Sixfold by 2011 – BusinessWeek – 12 July 2010:
“Enriching uranium to 90 percent from 20 percent accounts for about half the time needed to get the raw heavy metal into the concentrated form needed for a weapon, Federation of American Scientists physicist Ivan Oelrich said in a May 19 note. Iran is “perfectly capable” of enriching to 90 percent, he said.”

Entering the Secret World of Wikileaks, National Public Radio (NPR), Show: Fresh Air – 14 July 2010:
“Now I read that Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists Secrecy News blog was invited at some point to get involved with WikiLeaks and looked it over, and he’s somebody who believes in disclosure, and declined. Do you have cases like this where people who are interested in whistle-blowing and exposing government wrongdoing look at WikiLeaks and say, not so sure about this?”

DOE Plan Would Reduce Nuclear Arsenal By Up To 40 Percent But Would Result in Few Cost Savings or Reductions In Size Of Weapons Complex

Posted on July 13, 2010 by Dr. Y

–SCIENCE GROUPS RELEASE BUDGET PLAN PUBLICLY FOR FIRST TIME–

WASHINGTON DC (July 13, 2010) – The Obama administration is planning to cut the U.S. nuclear arsenal by as much as 40 percent by 2021, but also wants to spend nearly $175 billion over the next twenty years to build new facilities and to maintain and modify thousands of weapons, according to sections of an administration plan made public today by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

The proposal, the “FY2011 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan,” part of the Department of Energy’s proposed fiscal year 2011 budget, was drafted by DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and presented to members of Congress in May.

“Nuclear weapons are now a liability, not an asset, so the plan to reduce the U.S. nuclear stockpile is a step in the right direction.” said Lisbeth Gronlund, co-director of UCS’s Global Security Program.

The plan calls for the United States to reduce its nuclear arsenal 30 to 40 percent from today’s total of approximately 5,000 weapons. Reductions already underway will reduce the arsenal to 4,700 weapons by the end of 2012. According to the plan, “the future NNSA infrastructure will support total stockpiles up to a range of approximately 3,000 to 3,500 [warheads],” about twice the number of warheads the New START treaty permits to be deployed on strategic forces. (For more details, see “Plan Promises Nuclear Reductions, but Few Savings,” a fact sheet prepared by FAS and UCS.)

“The 3,000 to 3,500 total warhead target is a ceiling,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “Of course, the United States could reduce its arsenal to even lower levels through negotiated agreements with Russia and the other nuclear weapon states.”

The plan also includes cost estimates beyond what NNSA has previously released. It calls for the United States to spend nearly $175 billion (in then-year dollars) from 2010 to 2030 on new weapons production, testing and simulation facilities, and on modernizing and extending the life of the remaining weapons in the arsenal. That price tag does not include the cost of maintaining and operating nuclear weapons delivery systems, which are covered by the Department of Defense budget.

Given NNSA’s spotty record for meeting deadlines and budgets, experts at FAS and UCS predict that the costs are likely to be higher.

The two science groups also questioned some of NNSA’s key assumptions. For example, they questioned the need to maintain the capability to support 3,000 to 3,500 weapons, even if the number of weapons in the stockpile dropped below 1,000.

“Weapons expenditures will remain high because the plan calls for retaining a large, capable weapons complex independent of the size of the arsenal,” said Gronlund. “This could be a problem for deeper reductions that are needed since it would be possible for the United States to rapidly rebuild.”

“That calculation makes no sense,” said Kristensen. “It is like saying that today’s stockpile of about 5,000 weapons requires a complex of nearly the same size and cost as when the stockpile had 8,000 warheads. Given the size of the federal deficit, the Obama administration needs to think more clearly about how it spends the taxpayers’ money.”

Finally, the groups cautioned the Obama administration against against making extensive modifications to U.S. nuclear weapons in the future, at a time when the United States is seeking additional reductions with Russia and other nuclear weapon states and needs the support of non-nuclear countries to implement the administration’s nonproliferation agenda.

“Not only could extensive ‘improvements’ reduce the reliability of the warheads, they would send the wrong message when we are trying to get other countries to reduce their arsenals,” Gronlund said.

The “FY2011 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan” consists of five sections (three are unclassified):

· FY 2011 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan Summary (unclassified)

· Annex A – FY 2011 Stockpile Stewardship Plan (unclassified)

· Annex B – FY 2011 Stockpile Management Plan (classified)

· Annex C – FY 2011 Science, Technology, and Engineering Report on Stockpile Stewardship Criteria and Assessment of Stockpile Stewardship Program (classified), and

· Annex D – FY 2011 Biennial Plan and Budget Assessment on the Modernization and Refurbishment of the Nuclear Security Complex (unclassified)

Analysis by Hans Kristensen.
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BIO: Hans Kristensen

BLOG: Strategic Security

HOME: Nuclear Information Project

PRESS ROOM: News Release

New Study Examines Global Trade of Ammunition

Posted on June 4, 2010 by Dr. Y

Chapter (PDF)

WASHINGTON DC — The Small Arms Survey released its tenth annual global analysis of small arms and related issues, the “Small Arms Survey 2010: Gangs, Groups, and Guns”.

Matt Schroeder, manager of the Arms Sales Monitoring Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), co-authored the chapter on the global ammunition trade.

According to the new study, the first to examine the trade in ammunition for both small arms and light weapons, the global trade in ammunition is considerably less transparent than the trade in the weapons themselves.

This edition of the Survey also reveals that:
• The USD 4.3 billion ammunition finding shows that the long-standing estimate of USD 4 billion for the total trade (including weapons, parts, and accessories) considerably undervalues recent activity.

• In 2007, 26 countries had documented exports of small arms ammunition worth more than USD 10 million.

• The trade in propellant chemicals is worth at least tens, and perhaps hundreds, of millions of US dollars each year.

• Governments procure most of their light weapons ammunition from domestic producers when possible. Therefore, international transfers of light weapons ammunition are probably a small percentage of global public procurement.

• Ammunition imported by Western countries is overwhelmingly sourced from Western companies. Public procurement data from seven Western states indicates that in recent years they have received less than four per cent of their light weapons ammunition (by value) from non-Western firms.

• In 2007 the top exporters of all small arms and light weapons (those with annual exports of at least USD 100 million), according to available customs data, were (in descending order) the United States, Italy, Germany, Brazil, Austria, Belgium, the United Kingdom, China, Switzerland, Canada, Turkey, and the Russian Federation. The top importers of all small arms and light weapons for 2007 (those with annual imports of at least USD 100 million), according to available customs data, were (in descending order) the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, and Spain.

Published by Cambridge University Press, the report is the principle source of public information and analysis on all aspects of small arms and armed violence.

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BIO: Matt Schroeder

BLOG: Strategic Security

HOME: Arms Sales Monitoring Project

Harold Palmer Smith Jr. Elected New Chairman of the FAS Board

Posted on April 2, 2010 by Dr. Y

(WASHINGTON DC) — The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) today announced the election of its new Chairman of the Board of Directors — a technology, foreign policy, and defense expert who is a distinguished visiting scholar with the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley (UCB).

Asked about his new role at FAS, Dr. Smith said, “I very much look forward to working with our new CEO, Charles Ferguson, in guiding the Federation in the new and challenging era that lies before us.”

In addition to his work at UCB, Dr. Smith serves as an advisor to numerous governmental boards on national security policy.

“FAS will greatly benefit from Dr. Smith’s leadership to become a leading credible, authoritative, and nonpartisan organization dedicated to using scientific analysis to make the world more secure,” said Dr. Ferguson.

Previously, from 1993 – 1998, he worked for the Clinton Administration as Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs. In that role he was responsible for reducing the American and NATO arsenals of nuclear weapons, dismantling the chemical weapon stockpile, chemical and biological defense programs, and managing treaties related to strategic weapons. Dr. Smith was also responsible for implementing the Cooperative Threat Reduction program, which assists the former Soviet Union in the dismantlement of their weapons.

“We are entering a new era where the intersection of science and policy will be just as critical to peace and stability as it was in 1945 when the FAS began. These will be exciting times,” said Smith.

In 1960, Dr. Smith received his Ph.D. degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in nuclear engineering.

Visit the FAS Press Room.

Read the PIR article.

Read the PDF version of the newsletter.

FAS in the News

Posted on January 29, 2010 by Dr. Y

This weekly digest provides links to headlines that feature FAS projects, staff, and important issues. Stay up-to-date with FAS IN THE NEWS.

Roundup For Week Ending January 29, 2010

Energy, safety and nuclear capabilities intertwined – ScienceNews – 30 January 2010:
On January 1, Charles D. Ferguson became president of the Federation of American Scientists, a nongovernmental organization founded in 1945 by Manhattan Project scientists to promote humanitarian uses of science and technology. Ferguson worked at FAS 10 years ago as director of its nuclear policy project, and he returns after working from 2004 to 2009 at the Council on Foreign Relations as part of the Independent Task Force on U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy. Science News assistant managing editor Kristina Bartlett Brody asked Ferguson to discuss nuclear energy and nonproliferation.

New Palestinian Charter Drops Mention of Zionism, Sparking Questions – Huffington Post: 28 January 2010:
Fatah, led by Palestinian National Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, met last year to revise its charter for the first time in decades and that revision has just been translated by the Director of National Intelligence’s Open Source Center, a copy of which was obtained by the Federation of American Scientists’ Secrecy News blog.

START-ing Without China – Disarmament talks between the United States and Russia should include Beijing — Wall Street Journal: 27 January 2010:
How big is China’s arsenal? Beijing is not telling. Western analysts have been guessing, with wildly divergent assessments. The highly respected Federation of American Scientists believes the People’s Liberation Army now has 240 nuclear devices, of which 180 are strategic in nature.

Canadian Tamil Tiger Supporter Sentenced to 26 Years in Prison – Software engineer tried to buy guns, missiles for terrorist group – Ottawa Citizen: 23 January 2010:
Expert Matt Schroeder said the sentences sought by prosecutors were not out of line considering the grave threat posed by the illicit trafficking of missiles. “I think it’s perfectly reasonable to levy that kind of punishment.” “They’re highly sought after,” said Schroeder, manager of the arms sales monitoring project at the Federation of American Scientists. “Anybody who attempts to acquire missiles on U.S. soil really runs a risk of being nabbed in a sting operation,” he said.

Sarachandran jailed for 26 years for trying to aid Tamil Tigers Unlikely arms dealer – National Post: 23 January 2010:
Surface-to-air missiles are a hot commodity on the black market. Rebel groups want them to repel air strikes and terrorists want them to target commercial aviation, such as the 2002 Strela-2 missile attack on an Israeli airliner in Mombassa, Kenya. ”They’re highly sought after,” said Mr. Schroeder, manager of the arms sales monitoring project at the Federation of American Scientists.

Report Backs End of Bombers’ Nuclear Role – Air Force Times: 18 January 2010: “If they retire the cruise missile, that marks the end of the B-52 in the nuclear bomber business,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Despite the report, the Air Force wants a next-generation bomber capable of delivering nuclear weapons, according to recently retired Lt. Gen. Bob Elder.