Development of the Spreadsheet Model: Key Assumptions

 1. Use of OPCWData

 Many of the basic elements of the proposed BWC organizational structure resemble those of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Because of structural similarities, the OPCW budget4 was used as a guideline in establishing a range for many of the estimates in the BWC organization budget. Moreover, conversations with many OPCW officials provided a basis for tailoring the OPCW budget to an organization with different objectives and activities.

 The budget of a BWC organization will be significantly smaller than that of OPCW because:

  • There will be no destruction of existing weapons to monitor;
     and regular visits to declared facilities are not under consideration;
  • Quantitative accounting of listed materials is not likely to be required.

     2. Organizational Activities

    The BWC organization that will be established to strengthen the implementation of the Convention is likely to conduct the following activities:

  • Processing and analyzing data from declarations, on-site investigations and visits, confidence-building measures, and other available sources, including disease outbreak monitoring;
  • Conducting on-site visits and investigations (field and facility);
  • Supporting consultation and information exchange among States Parties;
  • Facilitating assistance to States Parties and scientific and technical cooperation and exchanges.

     3. Number of Facility Declarations

         It is assumed that the organization will receive approximately 2500 facility declarations annually.5 Doubling or halving the number of declared facilities would have only a small effect on the estimated budget, since the staff and operations costs of the Declarations Division constitute only about 8% of the total budget of the organization.

     4. Number of Field and Facility (Challenge) Investigations

         The organization must be prepared to conduct a challenge investigation at any time, but not more than one at a time. For budgetary purposes it is assumed that there will be, on average, one challenge investigation per year. The number of team members and length of time on site will be greater than for on-site visits, but this will not materially affect the budget.

     5. Inspector Capacity
    Based on the experience of similar organizations, we assume that each inspector cannot spend more than 40 days per year on site, plus two travel days per mission (see references 2c and 2d). To allow for contingencies such as sick leave, non-acceptance of certain inspectors by certain States Parties, and the possibility that a challenge investigation may arise, one extra team is included in calculating the number of inspectors. When the average size of teams is four or less, one extra inspector per team is included in the calculation, in order to provide some flexibility in selecting expertise for visits (e.g., from among auditors, engineers, microbiologists, weapons experts, physicians/veterinarians, interpreters, etc., each of which may have industrial, military or academic experience). With team sizes of five or larger, the number of extra inspectors per team decreases in calculating the number of inspectors.

     6. Sample Analysis
    It is assumed that, when samples are to be analyzed, the analysis will be carried out on site except under rare circumstances, in which case reference laboratories accredited by the organization will be used. Proprietary samples will be appropriately inactivated before the inspectors access them for analysis. Technologies under development are expected to simplify DNA analysis and immunoassay and to provide new techniques.6 It is assumed that analytical reagents specific for agents of interest will be developed and supplied free of charge by States Parties unless they are readily available commercially. It is further assumed that reference laboratories will donate their services, both for off- site analysis when needed and for standardizing and validating analytical equipment and procedures. Thus, the organization will not perform analyses and will need only a small laboratory for preparing materials for visits.

    7 Administrative Functions, Technical Cooperation and Assistance
    It is assumed that the scope of administrative functions, including technical cooperation and assistance activities, will be similar to those of the OPCW. This is reflected in the baseline organization chart (see below).

     8. Auxiliary Staff
    Personnel numbers are fixed in the model except for top executive posts (rank of D- 1 and higher) and the staff of the following units: Operations, Procedure Formulation, Training, and Technical Support Branches of the Investigations and Visits Division, and Human Resources and Information Services Branches of the Administration Division (see organization chart and staff table below). These personnel numbers are functions of the variable parameters.

     9. Salary Scale
    To be competitive in recruiting qualified personnel, the BWC organization will have to utilize the United Nations Common System of Salaries, Allowances and Benefits,7 which is revised periodically. The figures used in the salary and staff tables below are those that were in effect in January 1998. A revision of the Common System that would produce an increase of approximately 4% in total staff costs (including post adjustment) occurred in March 1998 is not included here. In the model, the net salaries for each rank are based on Step One levels for personnel with one dependent.8 According to interviews with officials in OPCW and UNIDO, entering personnel should be hired at Step One, with the rank (D-2, P-5, etc.) reflecting professional experience. Of course, as time goes on, salary raises will increase the average Step level and staff costs somewhat.

     Benefits involve many variables; the average benefit/salary ratio is a variable parameter in the model. Post Adjustment, according to the UN System, depends on location and is a function of location in the model.

     General Service (GSO) staff are not within the UN professional system and are not paid according to the same salary scale. They are generally recruited locally and their salaries are based on local salary rates for their positions. They do not receive post adjustments or dependents allowances. The GSO salaries used here are for step 5, level I of a sevenstep scale. Step 5 corresponds to the rank of Senior Secretary, Senior Administrative Clerk or Senior Finance Clerk.

     10. Parameters of Little Functional or Cost Significance
    These are fixed, in the model.

    PREVIOUS--------NEXT