Notes and References
The FAS Working Group on BW Verification is indebted to Clarisa Perez-Armendariz, a graduate student at Harvard University, for researching and constructing the spreadsheet model presented here, and to all the international officials, especially those at the OPCW, who contributed their time and expertise to the research. Marie Isabelle Chevrier, of the University of Texas at Dallas, was the principal author of the report.2
This paper utilizes information in the March, 1998 "Rolling Text" of the Protocol (BWC/AD HOC GROUP/ 39 dated 2 February 1998 as amended by BWC/AD HOC GROUP/40 dated 17 March 1998.) Other papers consulted include:a) G.S. Pearson & M. Dando, An Optimum Organization, Briefing Paper No. 5, Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention, January 1998.
b) B.H. Rosenberg, A Lean and Mean BWC Organization: Piggybacking on What's Already There, Pugwash Workshop on Strengthening the BWC, December 1995.
c) FAS Working Group on BW Verification, Estimate of International Costs for a BW Compliance Regime, revised October 1994.
d) R. Zilinskas, The Future BWC Transparency Regime: A Costing Analysis, Center for Public Issues in Biotechnology, Univ. of Maryland Biotechnology Institute, 1994.
The spreadsheet file on the diskette can be easily altered. It is not copy protected nor does it carry a copyright. We strongly urge everyone who uses the spreadsheet to copy the file with a different name and leave the file "FAS BWC Org" intact as the master file, to which you may want to return after making changes in the copy. Comments and questions should be addressed to Dr. Marie Chevrier at chevrier@utdallas.edu. Many of the cost estimates used here are based on the OPCW Programme and Budget, 1998, C-11/6, 5 December 1997. The number of declared facilities is fixed at 2500 in the model. For a detailed explanation of this estimate, see FAS Working Group on BW Verification, Estimate of the Number of Declared Facilities, Working Paper revised September 1997. The US Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is developing fully automated, portable, rapid, highly sensitive biodetectors to retrieve and analyze agents by immunoassay and PCR-DNA analysis (personal communication; Trust and Verify, July 1998). The Livermore portable PCR, with integrated sample preparation "cartridge," is being commercialized (Cepheid Co.). Results can be obtained in under one hour, by incorporating a fluorophore and using commercially-available automated detection equipment (Idaho Technologies "Light Cycler"). Multiple DNA probes on chips, for specific potential BW agents, are under development at Lawrence Livermore and the DARPA BW Defense Program. The chip technology is being commercialized (G. Ramsay, "DNA Chips: State of the Art," Nature Biotechnology 16, 40, 1998; Quantech, Ltd. PR Newswire (http://nt.excite.com:80/news/rp/980818/mn-quantech-navy)). Chips with gene fragments from bacterial agents that bind ribosomal RNA, which contains genus and species information but not strain information, are under development (R. Ackerman, "Sensor Development Races B Warfare Threat," Signal p. 34 (Dec. 1997); their use for analysis of industrial production strains would avoid detection of confidential information. Development is nearing completion on a highly sensitive and rapid new portable, miniaturized flow cytometer method for immunoassay, using antibodies covalently bound to chips, labeled with up-converting phosphors that can be excited using a compact, near-infrared diode laser with a giant magnetoresonance readout (Ackerman, ibid).; M. Donlan, "Next Generation Technologies to Counter Proliferation," CBIAC Newsletter, Vol, 3, No. 4, Fall 1997). The same detection method can be used with DNA chips. These techniques are capable of recognizing a single gene. They are expected to be ready in several years (A. Marshall and J. Hodgeson, "DNA Chips: An Array of Possibilities," Nature Biotechnology 16, 27, 1998). Other methods under development include miniaturized mass spectroscopy (Marshall and Hodgeson, ibid); see also, FAS Working Paper "Potential for New Approaches to Microorganism Identification, with Annex on Analysis of Inactivated Microbial Samples," November 1995. For the United Nations Common System of Salaries, Allowances and Benefits, see http://www.un.org/Depts/icsc/sad/sab/index.htm and http://www.un.org/Depts/icsc/cold/pubs/index.htin If the staff averaged two or three dependents, total staff costs would increase by $191,770 or $383,540 ($15 10 per additional dependent per staff member above GSO, regardless of location), which is less than 0. 14% of the total baseline budget. Post adjustments shown are those for The Hague (low), Vienna (medium) and Geneva (high-cost city). Functions of Offices and BranchesLegal Affairs Office: Includes legal consultation and contracting.
Internal Oversight, Confidentiality and Security Office: Includes security forces and equipment, security communications and equipment for use throughout the organization where needed, and confidential language services for official documents of the executive offices.
Government Relations and Secretary to the Policy-Making Groups Office: In addition to government relations, this office provides conference services, including interpretation and translation for meetings. It manages meetings and other activities of the Conference of States Parties, the Executive Council and the Scientific Advisory Board.
Health and Safety Office: Monitors and assures on-site health and safety.
Investigations and Visits Division
Inspectorate Operations Branch: Conducts on-site investigations and visits and reports on them.
Training Branch: Training of new operations personnel and periodic retraining. Members of other Branches and outside experts may contribute.
Procedures Formulation and Review Branch: Plans and manages investigations and visits, provides guidance, and maintains liaison with inspectors in the field.
Supplemental Experts Branch: Identifies, prepares and mobilizes supplemental experts from outside the organization who may be needed for investigations or visits.
OPCW Liaison and Facilities Relations Branch: Includes facility education regarding preparations for visits and investigations.
Technical Support Branch: Procurement, standardization, maintenance, storage and transport of equipment and reagents for visits and investigations; reference laboratory accreditation and quality control; analytical training; maintenance of analytical databases. Declarations, Data Monitoring and Analysis Division
Declaration Processing, Followup and Assistance Branch: Checks declarations and compiles data; conducts (together with Data Analysis Branch) consultations on questions regarding declarations; and provides assistance to States Parties in compiling data and submitting declarations.
Supplemental Data Monitoring Branch: Monitors data available from sources other than declarations, including surveillance of publications and of legislation, multilateral information sharing, and information from other organizations.
Outbreak Data Monitoring Branch: Monitors disease outbreak data available from outside sources. This Branch could be combined with the one above.
Data Analysis Branch: Analysis of data from all sources, including visits and investigations; consultations on questions that may arise. Technical Cooperation and Assistance Division: Coordination of activities under Articles VI and VII of the Protocol, and of personnel exchange or other confidence-building visits not managed by the Investigations and Visits Division. Administration Division: Some administrative services could be outsourced.
Human Resources Branch: Recruitment, supporting staff training, personnel records, benefits, employee assistance.
Budget and Finance Branch: Payroll, disbursements, accounting, budget, Voluntary Fund.
Information Services Branch: Library maintenance and research, information technology, publications.
General Services Branch: Staff medical services, travel, purchasing, receiving, facility and vehicle management, equipment maintenance.
Language Services Branch: Translation, interpretation (except for investigations and visits) in six languages.
Staff levels:Item 10: When there are more than six top posts, the number of D- I posts and supporting staff in this row increase.
Item 11: Legal office has three lawyers, about half OPCW because of less on-site activity.
Item 13: This office includes six GSO staff for confidential language services for official documents of the executive offices.
Item 19: Operations staff includes one P-5 to lead each team; other team members are P4, except interpreters, which are P-3 (i.e., for the baseline case, 6 teams, each with a P-5 leader, 4 P4 members- allowing for one extra--and a P-3 interpreter). One P-3 and one GSO staff assist each team at headquarters.
Item 20: Members of other Branches, and outside experts, may contribute. One-half GSO is included per team; other staff numbers are fixed.
Item 21: One P-3 and 1/2 GSO per team, plus P-5 Branch head and GSO assistant.
Item 24: Technical Support Branch has one P-5 head, one GSO, plus, for each team, 1/2 P-3, 1/2 P-2, and one GSO.
Item 27: For automated processing of declarations, one GSO per 600 declarations, or about four GSO for 2500 declarations. One P-5 and GSO assistant, and four P-3 for followup and assistance.
Item 37: The Human Resources Branch includes 0.8 GSO per inspection team.
Item 39: Information Services includes one P-3 and 1/3 GSO per inspection team. Number and functions of other Information Services staff are fixed.
Many Operating Budget categories and figures are based on the OPCW Program and Budget 1998 (pages are cited). If not otherwise qualified, the figure given is about the same as the OPCW's.Item 10: slightly higher than OPCW (p. 16). If there are more than six top posts, this figure increases by $50,000 in travel funds for each additional top post. Otherwise the figure remains at $50,000 and is for the Director General only.
Item 11: OPCW (p. 16).
Item 15: OPCW (p. 22).
Item 16: Double the OPCW allowance (p. 22) because the smaller legal staff of the BWC organization will require more legal consultation and contracting.
Item 20: Somewhat higher than OPCW (p. 43).
Items 21, 22: OPCW (pp. 45, 46).
Item 23: OPCW (p. 24), for Conference of States Parties sessions, Executive Council meetings and other conferences. Includes overtime and temporary assistance, interpretation and translation for meetings.
Item 24: OPCW (p. 117 and p. 53).
Item 28: One-third OPCW (pp. 27 and 94). Includes security guard force, patrol services, alarm services, executive protection, security training materials and services, security communications and computers.
Estimate based on assumption that building and staff will be about one-third the size of OPCW.
Items 29 and 30: Confidentiality equipment for use where needed throughout the organization. Includes stand-alone working stations and secure printout devices for all network printers. OPCW (pp. 79, 115,60).
Item 43: OPCW (p. 18).
Item 44: 20% higher than OPCW (p. 18).
Item 45: OPCW (p. 18).
Item 46: 20% less than OPCW (p. 18).
Item 47: Slightly less than OPCW (p. 18).
Item 51: Based on reference 2c plus data compiled more recently by the FAS Working Group.
Item 52: Approximately twice OPCW (pp. 71 and I 18), for travel other than investigations or visits.
Includes consultations to resolve questions about declarations, and participation in conferences.
Items 53 and 54: Average travel ($2300 per person) and DSA costs slightly higher than OPCW (p. 76).
Total costs are functions of the variable parameters.
Item 55: Based on average equipment transport cost per inspection, OPCW (p. 76). Total cost is a function of the number of visits (a variable parameter).
Item 56: OPCW (p. 85).
Item 57: One-third OPCW (p. 76, based on 326 OPCW inspections per year), because the BWC regime will have fewer visits. This item is for contracting interpreters when language expertise needed for visits is not covered by staff.
Item 58: About one-third OPCW training costs (pp. 74 and 118). Note that OPCW training is probably still partially in the start-up phase, and therefore the cost of training in the OPCW Budget 1998 may be higher than for normal operations. This may be true for both organizations for a number of years. The estimate cannot be based on the number of inspectors, because of economies of scale in training. This item includes initial and advanced/ongoing training and equipment for inspectors and headquarters staff in the Investigations and Visits Division.
Items 59, 60, 61, 62, 63: OPCW (pp. 85, 79, 117).
Item 68: OPCW (p. 5 1).
Item 72: Approximately the same as OPCW (p. 5 1), excluding items not applicable to the BWC organization.
Item 73: One-third higher than OPCW (p. 48).
Items 74, 75: OPCW (p. 5 1).
Items 80, 8 1: One-half OPCW (p. 33).
Item 82: Office automation equipment consists principally of office-wide networks and servers rather than per person equipment. Similar to OPCW (pp. 37 and 95 and discussion with officials).
Item 83: A combination of per person and system-wide costs. Based on OPCW (p. 96-7).
Item 84: OPCW (p. 37).
Item 85: Approximately one-half OPCW (p. 37 and discussion with officials) because of smaller size of BWC organization. Includes services for security requirements.
Item 86: OPCW (p. 37).
Item 87: OPCW (p. 83).
Item 88: One-half OPCW (p. 83).
Item 89: Two-thirds OPCW (p. 83).
Item 90: Item 90: Building rental, utilities and maintenance are a function of location, a variable parameter in the model. The estimates are based on the space occupied by OPCW before moving to the new building: a total of 6349 sq. meters office space, 2105 sq. meters other space, and 100 parking places, in two locations (L. van Meerdervoort 51 and the Aegon Building). This space was sufficient for all necessary OPCW functions except laboratory and large conferences. It is assumed here that large conference facilities, cafeteria and other ancillary facilities will be borrowed from other organizations such as OPCW or the United Nations. It is further assumed that the organization will have only a small laboratory that would be accommodated in the space estimated below.
Since the number of staff estimated for the BWC organization is approximately half the OPCW staff (which was about 450, in the two buildings cited), the size of the building needed for the BWC organization is estimated as 3175, 2105 and 50 parking spaces.
For a low-cost location, the cost estimate is based on data obtained from OPCW for average costs in The Hague: $160/sq. meter for office space, $68 for other space, and $90 per parking space, giving a total of about $600,000 per year.
For a high-cost location, the estimate is based on data for the Palais des Nations in Geneva (see ref. 2c, which has been updated): approximately $500/sq. meter for office space, $200 for other space, and $250 per parking space, giving a total of about $2,000,000 per year.
For a medium-cost location such as Vienna, the estimate is midway between the other two ($1,300,000).
Item 9 1: Three-fourths of OPCW (pp. 52 and 109).
Item 92: Eighty percent of OPCW (pp. 52 and 109).
Items 93, 94: One-half OPCW (pp. 52 and 109).
Item 95: One-third OPCW (p. 53).
Item 96: One-half OPCW (pp. 53 and 110).
Item 97: OPCW (pp. 53 and 110).