Federation of American Scientists Working Group on BW Verification

Visits: A Unified Concept

December 1998

Non-challenge visits to facilities, hereafter called "visits," are crucial components of an effective compliance regime for the BWC. This paper presents proposals for the essential elements of a unified visit concept. The concept incorporates elements from the Rolling Text, Parts I and II (October 1998), from US, France/UK and Japanese papers on clarification visits, and from other sources. Salient features of this unified visit concept include:

· Priorities for selection, by the BWC organization, of facilities to be visited (rather than a set of visit types);

· Right of States Parties to refuse visits to facilities that are not included in their declarations;

· Stringent and equitable limits on the total permissible number per year of all visits (not just certain types of visits) to any one facility or State Party;

· A requirement for equitable geographical distribution of visits;

· A commitment to conduct all visits in a friendly, objective and non-confrontational manner, on the assumption that, if there are any irregularities, they are unintentional. (In contrast, facility and field investigations are based on suspicion of non-compliance.)

· Confidentiality of all visit reports unless a significant issue remains unresolved;

· A single schedule for visits, providing simplicity and flexibility.

Purpose of Visits: To reassure each State Party that other States Parties have accurately declared the dual-use biological capabilities within their jurisdiction or control according to the requirements of the protocol. Visits carried out for this purpose will encourage States Parties to make accurate declara-tions, will increase transparency in biological activities, will help deter the use of biologi-cal facilities for illicit purposes and will assist the States Parties in assessing compliance.

Mandate for Visits: To confirm that declarations are consistent with the requirements of the protocol. (By contrast, the mandate for facility and field investigations is to investigate specific, suspected violations of the BWC).

Number of Visits: The BWC organization’s resources and manpower (together with the average numbers of days and inspectors allowed per visit) will determine the number of visits that can be conducted each year. About 100 visits should be sufficient to accomplish the purpose for which they are needed. (In contrast, facility and field investigations are likely to be rare.)

Initiation of Visits: All visits are to be initiated by the BWC organization. (In contrast, facility and field investigations are initiated by States Parties.)

Selection of Facilities for Visits: Facilities/sites for visits are to be selected by the BWC organization on the basis of the following considerations, in order of priority:

1. To ensure that declarations are clear, accurate and complete, with particular emphasis on:

â States Parties that have not submitted their initial declarations;

â States Parties that are behind schedule in submitting their annual declarations;

â Matters that have not been resolved through consultations under Article III, Section E, Paragraph xxx).

2. To ensure equitable geographical distribution of visits.

3. To implement voluntary/request visits. These could be incorporated into the visit schedule within the other priorities, and need not require separate procedures.

4. To ensure equitable distribution of visits among different types of declared facilities/sites.

Priorities 2, 3 and 4 will aid in familiarizing the inspectorate with differing regional standards and all types of facilities/sites.

To give the organization a measure of flexibility, equity is to be determined over a period of two years. In this period, the number of visits per geographical unit should be close to equal, and the number of visits per type of facility should approximately reflect their relative abundance.

Limits on the Permissible Numbers of Visits per Facility and per State Party:

â No more than two visits per facility in two years;

â No more than [5] visits, or [5%] of the number of facilities declared by the State Party (whichever is larger), per State Party in two years.

Thus, for States Parties that declare 100 or fewer facilities, a maximum of [5] visits in two years; for States Parties that declare 200 facilities, a maximum of [10] visits in two years; etc. This amounts to a limit of [5] visits in two years (i.e., a maximum average number of visits per year of 2.5) for each 100 or fewer declared facilities.

Table 1 compares these limits with other limits that have been proposed.

Most States Parties will declare fewer than 100 facilities and will therefore be limited to a maximum average of 2.5 visits per year. For States Parties with more than 100 declarable facilities, the maximum of 2.5 visits per year per 100 declared facilities may be further limited by the requirements for equitable distribution of visits. An analysis is presented in Appendix I.

Conduct of Visits: Many details concerning the conduct of visits belong in an Annex rather than in the main protocol text, and are not addressed here.

â Protection of Confidential Information: The visit team shall be granted access, subject to the need to protect sensitive information. Access is to be negotiated, and activities shall be conducted according to the principles of managed access.

â Cooperation: The States Parties undertake to cooperate with the BWC organization in the conduct of visits.

â Conduct: All visits shall be conducted in a friendly, objective and non-confrontational manner, on the assumption that, if there are any irregularities, they are unintentional.

â Right of Refusal: States Parties have the right to refuse visits to facilities that are not included in their declarations; but in such cases the matter will be referred to the Executive Council and the States Parties.

â Visit Reports: Reports will consist of a factual summary of the visit activities, including the degree and nature of access and cooperation. The visited State Party will be afforded an opportunity to comment on the draft report and to suggest changes.

Confidentiality of Visit Reports: Reports will not be circulated outside the BWC organization unless a significant issue remains unresolved or the report indicates that an important obligation under the protocol may not have been met. In that case the Director-General shall inform the Executive Council and the States Parties.

At the end of each year, the BWC organization shall provide the States Parties with a list of all facilities/sites visited during that year.

Table 1

Comparison of Limits on Numbers of Visits in This and Other Proposals

In various proposals for visits that have been put forward, limits are imposed over periods varying from 1-5 years. For comparison in this Table, all limits have been converted to a one-year basis (e.g., a limit of 10 visits in 5 years is converted to 2 visits per year)

Maximum Permissible Number of Visits (on per-year basis)

 

Per Facility

Per State Party

Per Region

1. Clarification Visits

no limits

no limits or 2

equality not required

2. Random Visits

no limits

2 or less than 1

equal in all regions

All Visits (1. Plus 2.)

no limits

4 or more

unequal

Unified Visits Proposal Presented Here

1

2.5 per 100 or fewer declared facilities

equal in all regions

Appendix I

Analysis of the Maximum Permissible Number of Visits for a State Party Declaring

1000 Facilities under This Proposal

· State Party Limit: No more than 50 visits in 2 years, based on 1000 declared facilities and a maximum of 5 visits in 2 years per 100 declared facilities. Converting the two-year limits to a one-year basis for convenience, the limit is 25 visits per year.

· Geographical Limit: Assuming that the BWC organization makes 100 visits per year and that there are five regions, the regional limit would be 20 visits per year. Even in the unlikely event that all the visits in a given region took place in a single State Party, that Party could receive no more than 20 visits. If there were six regions, the regional limit (and, therefore, the limit on a State Party with 1000 facilities) would be 16.7 visits per year.

· Therefore, a State Party with 1000 declared facilities could receive no more than 17-20 visits per year, even though the State Party limit for 1000 facilities is 25 per year.

â This limit includes clarification visits as well as all other types of visits. Most proposals for clarification visits have no State Party limits.

â 20 visits out of 1000 declared facilities = 2%, a one-in-fifty maximum average probability of a visit per year per facility.

· In actual practice, with 140 States Parties and a total of only 100 visits per year made by the BWC organization, it is extremely unlikely that the maximum number of visits to any State Party would be reached, or that the organization would allocate anywhere near 20 visits to any one State Party.