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The FAS Drug Policy Analysis Bulletin

Issue Number One
January 1997


Methamphetamine Returns

Methamphetamine ("crank," "speed," "meth," or, in its smokable form, "ice") is back. Not that it was ever really gone, but a flood of Mexican methamphetamine seems to be washing across the entire western part of the country, as far east as Minneapolis and Des Moines. Nationally, the number of reported methamphetamine deaths has tripled since 1992.

Since its role in bringing an end to the Haight-Ashbury "summer of love" in 1967, methamphetamine's nasty reputation for bringing out especially undesirable behavior traits in its frequent users has tended to confine its use to a few areas of the far Southwest and to the "biker" fringe of the white working class. That appears to be changing, and once again stories of bizarre behavior are following the path of the drug. In the opinion of those who know both drugs, methamphetamine has a worse set of behavioral and physiological sequelae than cocaine, even cocaine consumed in the form of freebase or crack.

While most users report liking methamphetamine less than cocaine, it is enormously more cost-effective, partly because the effective dose is smaller, partly because methamphetamine is much longer-acting. Roughly speaking, a gram of meth costs about the same as a gram of cocaine but will keep its user high for ten times as long.

What is to be done?

Putting controls on the precursor chemicals-- ephedrine, and before that P2P-- made a serious dent in U.S. domestic production during the late 1980s and 1990s. If Mexico can be persuaded to impose, and enforce, such controls, there may be a prospect of shutting off the problem at its source. The ratio of benefit to the U.S. to effort by Mexico may be higher for controlling methamphetamine precursors than for any other set of drug supply reduction policies.

For Mexico to make real progress against its other drug- trafficking problems -- cocaine transshipment, poppy and marijuana growing, heroin processing -- would require tackling the serious endemic corruption problems in Mexican law enforcement, which in turn would require major changes in, e.g., the ludicrously low pay of Mexican police and soldiers. Especially in light of the peso crisis, this is impossible in the short run and unlikely even in the next several years.

Precursor controls, by contrast, involve regulating the behavior of a limited number of chemical companies in order to make it harder for drug producers to get the necessary supplies of a relatively short list of chemicals. Regulatory corruption is always a possibility, but policing the regulators is easier than policing the police.

Less is to be hoped for from interdiction and domestic law enforcement. While there seems to be good justification for boosting the share of enforcement resources devoted to meth, it presents a relatively hard enforcement target. It's more compact than cocaine, complicating anti-smuggling efforts. Its synthesis, given the availability of ephedrine as a precursor, demands relatively little skill or capital; thus breaking up clandestine laboratories and arresting the chemists will do little if anything to shrink the supply. There may be a role for street- level enforcement in keeping retail availability limited, but the methamphetamine market is, to a large extent, already the sort of discreet, indoor market that successful street-level enforcement generates.

Prevention, and especially the distribution of appropriate messages to potential new users, increases in importance at the beginning stages of any drug epidemic, especially when the drug in question has spread so quickly as to outrun its bad reputation. While the use of scare tactics on the "Reefer Madness" model tends to reduce the credibility of some prevention efforts, in the case of methamphetamine the sober truth is quite scary enough. The challenge is to develop, test, and implement an anti-meth campaign before the problem spreads much further. That will require some basic "market research" on who the new users are and what they believe.

The current concern about the upsurge in adolescent marijuana use may create resistance to devoting significant resources to prevention messages aimed specifically at methamphetamine. The politics of drug prevention is dominated by the parents' anti-drug groups, whose concern tends to focus on marijuana, the illicit drug most widely used by minors. Not only would a renewed "Speed Kills" campaign compete for resources with anti-marijuana messages, but an accurate description of the horrors of methamphetamine would tend to make marijuana look relatively unthreatening. Emphasizing that some illicit drugs are much more dangerous than others is logically consistent with a message that all drug use is to be avoided, but it is psychologically inconsistent. Simply adding meth to the list of no-no's in a generic campaign against "drugs" would likely attract little opposition, but it would also likely do little good.

While treatment demand tends to lag behind new drug epidemics, in the case of methamphetamine the average time from first regular use to presentation for treatment will tend to be shorter than for most other drugs: much shorter, for example, than for heroin. (This may have the optimistic implication that the epidemic will tend to be short-lived.) As in the case of cocaine, the absence of any proven pharmacotherapy, either substitute or blocker, limits treatment effectiveness.

Like heroin, methamphetamine can be snorted, smoked, or injected. There is an urgent need to learn more about the transition from snorting or smoking to injection, and how to prevent it, if that is possible. (It may be the case that the irritating effects of methamphetamine powder on the nasal mucosa, and of methamphetamine vapor on the throat and lungs, make injection nearly inevitable for chronic high-dose meth users.) The methamphetamine problem may further complicate the issue of policy toward the supply of injection equipment for illicit drug use. It certainly widens the target population for warnings about the dangers of injection.

The Many Faces of Meth Abuse

Heavy methamphetamine users will present themselves in three different guises: as substance abusers in need of treatment, as psychiatric emergency-room cases with stimulant-generated psychoses, and as criminal defendants in cases of one or another degree of assault. The natural tendency will be to handle each case as it presents: treating the substance abuse without dealing with the psychosis or the risk of criminal behavior, treating the psychosis without dealing with, or perhaps even noticing, the underlying substance abuse, and processing the criminal case without appropriate attention to the high risk that continued use of meth will lead to continued, and increasingly serious, incidents of violence.

The need for coordinated action between substance abuse treatment and mental health providers, and between each of them and criminal justice agencies, is a familiar story; equally familiar is the list of reasons why it doesn't happen. The need is especially great in the case of methamphetamine; the current threat ought to be the occasion for a concerted effort to overcome the barriers to cooperation. This would seem to be a major early test of the skills and powers of the rejuvenated Office of National Drug Control Policy.


Rebalancing the Drug Control Budget: A Shadow Play

A standard criticism of current drug policy, most often heard at the time of the National Drug Control Strategy, is that too much money is spent on enforcement and not enough on prevention and treatment. Enforcement's share is always at least 65 percent of estimated federal expenditures. For state and local governments, which spend in the aggregate about half again the $13 billion the feds spend, the enforcement share is even higher: close to 80%.

The budget issue has been a major, if not the dominant, theme of the Congressional drug policy debate over the past decade or so. But there is reason to doubt that this fight over the shape of the federal drug would serve any useful purpose, even if the underlying figures were more precise and meaningful than is actually the case. [See Patrick Murphy, Keeping Score: The Frailties of the Federal Drug Budget, RAND, 1994.]

What "Drug Budget"?

The "drug budget" is a back-calculation from actual agency expenditures, not a part of the process by which money is actually allocated. That process involves top-level decisions (by the Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget Committees) about how much should be spent by the various agencies, intertwined with further struggles over how that money gets spent at lower levels of OMB (in the offices of the Program Associate Directors or PADs), in the subcommittees of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, and within the agencies themselves.

Thus a decision to move funds from interdiction to treatment would have to involve moving money from, say, the Treasury Department (parent of the Customs Service) to the Department of Health and Human Services (which includes the Center for Substance Abuse Treatment). But the Treasury spends money on many things, some of which enjoy less popular, political, and bureaucratic support than interdiction; similarly, HHS funds a wide range of programs, some of them with more support than providing better services for drug addicts. Once the OMB PADs, the Appropriations Subcommittees, and the agency budget shops are finished, neither the cut nor the addition may fall where it was intended to fall.

Rebalancing the Right Way

The total national (federal, state, and local) budget for law enforcement is about $100 billion, of which enforcing the drug laws accounts for about a quarter. Education and health care each takes more than three times that amount, but drug prevention and treatment receive only negligible shares of those sums. If, as is at least plausible, more money should be spent on drug treatment and prevention, there seems to be no logical reason why those funds shouldn't come out of the health and education budgets. By the same token, drug law enforcement arguably consumes too large a share of the total law enforcement budget, but that suggests a reallocation of funds within the enforcement budget rather than reducing the total. The argument over the two- thirds to one-third split between enforcement and treatment, however, creates the appearance of serious debate about drug strategy without stretching the very narrow limits that confine the drug policy discussion in Washington.

Increasing treatment availability is a good idea (see below). So is shortening some of the unduly long sentences for drug dealers and eliminating some non-cost-effective interdiction efforts. But neither change is necessary to making the other. Linking them politically probably reduces the feasibility of doing either one.


Managing Drug-Involved Offenders

Heavy users account for at least three-quarters of the total volume of cocaine consumed in the United States, and an even larger fraction of the volume of heroin consumed. This is not because heavy users are very numerous; on the contrary. The total number of active heavy cocaine users and heavy heroin users in the U.S. probably comes to no more than three million persons. The poverty of most "hard core" users and the expense of maintaining a hard core habit at black market prices ($10,000 - $15,000 per year) together imply that hard core users are often driven to income-producing crime: one or another variety of theft, drug dealing, or prostitution. The combination of surveys and arrestee drug testing results suggest that about three-quarters of the high-dose cocaine users are arrested in the course of any given year (and are likely to be on bail, probation, or parole when not in prison). If 80% of the hard drugs go to heavy as opposed to light casual users and if three-quarters of the heavy users are in jail, on probation, or parole, then the population under criminal justice supervision accounts for 60% of total consumption.

Given the very high crime rates characteristic of drug- involved offenders who remain heavily drug-involved, the substantial cost of imprisonment might not be too high a price to pay to avoid the crimes they commit while free (even putting aside the crimes committed by the drug traffickers they support) if there were no other way of doing so. From a crime-control perspective, this would certainly be a better use of the cells than long sentences for minor drug dealers certain to be replaced within the illicit labor market. But in fact it should not be necessary to imprison most offenders in order to reduce their drug consumption. The threat of incarceration for continued drug use might be adequate to deter them.

The current drug-testing practices of probation and parole departments combine infrequent testing and even more infrequent sanctioning for missed or "dirty" tests, with occasional punishments of great severity. But both crime and drug abuse attract the reckless and impulsive, whose behavior is not easily changed by low-probability threats.

Coerced Abstinence

The alternative -- proposed at various times by figures as diverse as Robert DuPont, Jerome Jaffe, Douglas Anglin, John Kaplan, and Norman Zinburg-- would be frequent tests (twice a week would be ideal) and automatic, but mild, sanctions: perhaps two days confinement for the first failure, escalating if there are repeated failures over a short period. The observation that quitting any drug habit typically involves repeated attempts and repeated failures suggests the importance of creating predictable but not catastrophic penalties for the predictable failures (and, ideally, rewards for periods of success) in any program of drug testing for offenders.

The testing technology itself is easy to operate, and the tests are quite inexpensive on a mass-production basis. To succeed, such a program requires adequate confinement capacity (not necessarily in a jail, since persons confined for only a few days pose less escape risk, and require fewer services, than typical jail inmates) so that the threat of sanctions never fails; either dedicated judicial capacity or legal authority for administrative sanctioning, in order to avoid gridlocking the courts; and someone to go out and arrest those who refuse to come in for testing or sanctions. In addition to the testing costs, the major expense of such a program would be the time of probation, parole, and other staff required to administer it. Total costs have been estimated at less than $2000 per participant per year, more than twice the cost of ordinary probation but less than one-tenth the cost of prison, and likely to be substantially offset by reduced prison occupancy both by users and by the dealers they support.

Even without an explicit treatment component, testing and sanctions for drug-involved offenders on probation or parole could have substantial therapeutic benefit. Facing constant pressure to abstain, those drug-involved offenders who cannot stop without professional treatment will be strongly motivated both to seek out treatment and to stick with it. Others, once confronted with the fact that their preferred lifestyle of drug use and crime is no longer available, will find that they can quit on their own or with the help of one of the Twelve-Step programs. Nevertheless, failure rates among offenders subject to testing and sanctions would probably be much lower if formal treatment were available for those who wanted it.

Not only is a slot in a coerced-abstinence program much cheaper than a prison cell or a half-way house bed, it does not hit the same capacity limitation. For those offenders able and willing to comply, it offers much better life prospects, since experience of remaining drug-abstinent outside confinement is much more valuable than the same experience while confined.

Thus creating such a policy would still be a good idea even if its actual administration fell short of the ideal. A fairly significant cheating problem, for example, would reduce the efficacy of the program without eliminating its benefits or greatly increasing its costs. The program would still have value with respect to those who did not cheat. If a significant number of offenders proves unable or unwilling to comply with such a program, that would boost its costs substantially, but identifying such persistent offenders and incapacitating them by incarceration is itself a task well worth doing, if deterrence fails.

The Payoffs

Using the criminal justice system to reduce drug demand will do more than any feasible level of drug law enforcement to break up drug markets. Assuming that heavy users account for three- quarters of the heroin and cocaine consumed, that in turn three- quarters of heavy users derive much of their income from crime, that two-thirds of that group would be under testing and sanctions at any given time, and that the combination of deterrence and relapse-prevention effects could reduce their heroin and cocaine purchases by four-fifths for the duration of supervision-- all plausible, though not demonstrably valid, assumptions-- then the direct result of mounting a national program would be a shrinkage of volume in the two richest drug markets by more than one- quarter. Indirect effects, including the possibility of carry- over effects on consumption after the period of testing and sanctions for a given offender, would increase that figure.

Reduced demand means less revenue for drug dealers, which in turn means fewer guns, fewer shootings, less disruption of neighborhood life, and fewer kids lured out of school or licit work into the flashy, but eventually disastrous, life of retail drug selling.

Since we literally know the names of the people who contribute most of the money that supports heroin and cocaine dealing in the United States, it is almost inconceivable that we should continue current policies, which in effect allow them to maintain their habits in between spells of incarceration.

A well-designed program of coerced abstinence would cost about $4 billion per year-- assuming that about two-thirds of the heavy heroin and cocaine users would be covered at any one time-- less any savings from reduced prison use. Measured against the social costs of drug dealing and drug abuse, or even against the roughly $35 billion national drug abuse control budget, this is a rather modest cost. The real question is not whether to try coerced abstinence, but how to make it work. Legislation passed at the end of the last Congress will require each state to mount a testing and sanctions program. Now the struggle turns to the details.


Drug Policy Analysis Bulletin is edited by Mark A. R. Kleiman of the School of Public Policy and Social Research at UCLA. For specific comments on the contents of this newsletter, or if you would like to join in the work of the FAS Drug Policy Committee, contact Dr. Kleiman at (310)206-3234 or at kleiman@ucla.edu. Members of the Editorial Board include (affiliations for identification only):

Founded in 1945 by Manhattan Project scientists, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) is a national organization of natural and social scientists and engineers dedicated to the responsible use of science and technology.


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