An Expanding Analytic Base DARO’s Airborne ISR Analysis Program In late-FY 1996, DARO formed the DARO Architecture Development Team (DADT) to develop an Objective Architecture and investment strategies for the migration of “stovepiped” airborne reconnaissance assets by the year 2010. During the past year, the DADT has participated in or reviewed ISR studies DoD-wide and performed its own architectural and force mix study, with investment strategy, culminating in a draft system roadmap to achieve its goal. To reach this point, the DADT established a broad-based modeling, simulation and analysis (MS&A) capability, which used both tools and an iterative methodology to provide insights for the initial development of the DARO’s 2010 force structure projection. Selected systems, combined as architectures for given scenarios and yielding information products, result in recommended force mixes that are subjected to cost/benefit analyses that generate program requirements for future systems. More robust MS&A capabilities will strengthen and extend initial insights, thus enabling more comprehensive system, force mix and architectural performance assessment. Continued iteration and refinement of tools and techniques will eventually support both in-depth and quick-turn systems analyses. DoD Force Mix Studies Most current DoD studies of aircraft, UAV and/or satellite force trades are “single-INT.” They do not show the benefits of multi-sensor cross-cueing, or of future advanced processing and communications technologies. In addition, many of the studies’ results are not easily comparable. Nevertheless, several provide at least first-order support for DARO projections, which envision a UAV force mix of about 240 tactical UAVs, 48 Predators, and 35 HAE UAVs. DSC Studies. Two studies by DoD’s C4ISR Decision Support Center (DSC) specifically involve UAVs. “Study II” addressed C4ISR impacts on Strike Warfare, to include the use of UAVs in densely defended areas for the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) mission. “Study III” addressed Communications UAVs (CUAVs), projecting Predator and Global Hawk with communications packages operating with or in place of other surface- and space-based communications systems. It concluded that: By augmenting other links, CUAVs could improve theater and tactical communications, especially for mobile or isolated users; but — CUAVs could not replace satellite communications for strategic (inter-theater) scenarios with high-capacity long-haul traffic. Recommendations included acceleration of “proof-of-concept” activities and demonstrations, and development of an unmanned airborne communications node (see p. 42) and comprehensive communications architecture. AAN Wargames. The “Army After Next” (AAN) project conducts broad studies of future warfare, to include projecting an advanced-technology family of UAVs. In its January 1997 strategic war game set in 2020, for example, Red attacked Blue’s space systems all-out. Blue offset their loss by using other assets, including high-altitude UAVs, to maintain tactical knowledge dominance by helping to net the distribution of vital information.