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National Security Analysis Issue Area Plan--Fiscal Years 1995-97

(Letter Report, 04/95, GAO/IAP-95-11)


GAO provided information on its national security analysis issue area
plan, focusing on the: (1) military services' roles and how they can
best be accomplished; (2) effectiveness and affordability of the
Department of Defense's (DOD) planned force structure; (3) extent to
which planned defense budgets are affordable and consistent with
national security priorities; and (4) extent to which the intelligence
community is adequately supporting new missions.

GAO plans to: (1) evaluate the U.S. forces' changing roles in carrying
out new missions; (2) identify opportunities for greater specialization
or consolidation of key combat functions; (3) assess whether the DOD
force structure can properly support warfighting requirements; (4)
evaluate options for meeting changing forward presence requirements; (5)
assess DOD nuclear forces requirements and evaluate alternative force
structure options; (6) evaluate the affordability of proposed DOD
programs; (7) assess whether DOD budgets are based on accurate data and
realistic assumptions and consistent with DOD priorities; (8) determine
whether unnecessary duplication exists among intelligence operations;
(9) evaluate the accuracy of the estimates used to support force
structure and weapon acquisitions; and (10) assess the intelligence
agencies' roles in supporting new missions.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  IAP-95-11
     TITLE:  National Security Analysis Issue Area Plan--Fiscal Years 
             1995-97
      DATE:  04/95
   SUBJECT:  Strategic planning
             Military intelligence operations
             Agency missions
             Military forces
             Strategic forces
             Cost effectiveness analysis
             Combat readiness
             Defense budgets
             Defense cost control
             Budget functions

             
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Cover
================================================================ COVER


National Security and International Affairs Division

April 1995

NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYSIS ISSUE
AREA PLAN

FISCAL YEARS 1995-97

GAO/IAP-95-11



Abbreviations
=============================================================== ABBREV


FOREWORD
============================================================ Chapter 0

The National Security Analysis issue area is one of the General
Accounting Office's 35 issue areas.  Relying heavily on input from
congressional committees, as well as industry, academia, and agency
officials and other experts, GAO develops strategic plans to ensure
that our limited resources are directed towards the most important
concerns of the Congress. 

GAO serves as a source of timely, accurate information and unbiased
analysis for decisionmakers in the Congress and executive agencies. 
For each issue area, GAO's strategic plan describes the significance
of the issues, our objectives, and the focus of our work.  Our work
results in such products as reports, briefings, and testimonies. 

The National Security Analysis issue area reviews programs in the
Department of Defense, the individual military services, and other
supporting defense agencies.  The principal issues we cover are

  the military services' roles and functions and how they can best be
     accomplished;

  the effectiveness and affordability of DOD's planned force
     structure;

  the extent to which planned defense budgets are affordable and
     consistent with national security priorities; and

  the extent to which the intelligence community is adequately
     addressing the threat and new requirements. 

In the pages that follow, we describe our key planned work on these
pivotal issues. 

Because events may significantly affect even the best of plans, our
planning process allows for updating the plan and responding quickly
to emerging issues.  If you have any questions or suggestions about
this plan, please call me at (202) 512-3504. 

Richard Davis
Director
National Security Analysis Issues


CONTENTS
============================================================ Chapter 1


   FOREWORD
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:1

1


   TABLE I:  KEY ISSUES
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:2

3


   TABLE II:  PLANNED MAJOR WORK
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:3

5


   TABLE III:  GAO CONTACTS
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:4

6



TABLE I:  KEY ISSUES
============================================================ Chapter 2

Issue                         Significance
----------------------------  --------------------------------------------------
Roles and functions: What     During the Cold War, the services spent billions
roles and functions should    of dollars developing costly overlapping
U.S. military forces fulfill  capabilities, some of which may no longer be
and how can they best be      needed and are no longer affordable.
accomplished?





Force structure: Are DOD's    The current Congress will be reassessing the
restructuring plans likely    adequacy of DOD's planned force structure.
to produce an affordable and  Maintaining an effective yet affordable military
effective force?              force will require a fundamental reassessment of
                              force structure needs.






Budget and affordability:     There is a widespread concern in the Congress that
Are budgets for national      planned defense budgets are inadequate to support
security programs affordable  the planned military force and that inadequate
and consistent with security  defense budgets will result in a hollow force.
priorities?


Intelligence: Is the U.S.     The United States spends tens of billions of
intelligence community        dollars each year on intelligence programs, most
adequately addressing the     of which were developed during the Cold War years.
changed threat and new        In view of the new security environment, many
requirements?                 believe these programs need to be reassessed. A
                              step in that reassessment is the recently
                              established intelligence commission.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Objectives                                Focus of work
----------------------------------------  --------------------------------------
--Evaluate the changing role of U.S.      --Opportunities to better adapt air
forces in carrying out new missions.      power to the changing national
--Assess DOD's process for identifying    security environment within reduced
needed changes in service roles and       defense budgets
functions.                                --Assessment of the recommendations of
--Identify opportunities for greater      the Commission on Roles and Missions
specialization or consolidation of key    --Implementation of the Chairman of
combat functions.                         the Joint Chiefs of Staff
                                          recommendations on roles and functions

--Assess whether the force structure is   --Planned mix of combat forces
properly shaped to support warfighting    --Size and role of reserve forces
requirements.                             --Future U.S. nuclear posture
--Assess the active/reserve force mix.    --DOD's forward presence requirements
--Evaluate options for meeting changing
requirements for forward presence.
--Assess DOD requirements for nuclear
forces and evaluate alternative force
structure options.


--Evaluate the affordability of DOD's     --Affordability of defense programs
proposed programs.                        within planned defense budgets
--Assess whether DOD budgets are based    --Nondefense spending in the defense
on accurate data and realistic            budget
assumptions.                              --Budgetary analysis of
--Assess whether DOD's financial plan     infrastructure
and budget execution match its            and personnel accounts
priorities.

--Determine whether unnecessary           --Streamlining intelligence functions
duplication exists between intelligence   --Consistency of force structure and
organizations and programs.               weapons needs with threat estimates
--Evaluate the accuracy of intelligence   --Intelligence support for peace
estimates used to support force           operations
structure and weapon acquisitions.
--Assess the role of intelligence
agencies in supporting new missions.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TABLE II:  PLANNED MAJOR WORK
============================================================ Chapter 3

Issue                      Planned major job starts
-------------------------  -----------------------------------------------------
Roles and functions        --"Air Power"\a

                           --Role of bombers in future conflicts\a

Force structure            --Army plans to implement DOD's bottom-up review
                           force structure

                           --Forward presence

                           --Structure of Army National Guard combat forces

                           --General support forces drawdown

Budget and affordability   --Affordability of planned military forces within the
                           fiscal year 1996 Five Year Defense Plan

                           --Assessments of DOD's budget for infrastructure and
                           personnel

Intelligence               --Intelligence support to peace operations

                           --Accuracy of DOD intelligence budget systems
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a Ongoing assignments


TABLE III:  GAO CONTACTS
============================================================ Chapter 4


      DIRECTOR
-------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 4:0.1

Richard Davis (202) 512-3504


      ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR
-------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 4:0.2

Jess T.  Ford (202) 512-3504


      ASSISTANT DIRECTORS
-------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 4:0.3

Marvin E.  Casterline
Fred Dziadek
Richard J.  Herley
William C.  Meredith
Robert Pelletier
Sharon L.  Pickup
Richard J.  Price
Steven H.  Sternlieb
Janet A.  St.  Laurent
Gary K.  Weeter