Subject: IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRA

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence







TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.







AUG 90







SUBJECT:          IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM







IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM







IRAQ HAS AN EXTENSIVE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW) PROGRAM THAT

IS ADVANCED AND AGGRESSIVE. IRAQ HAS BEEN PRODUCING LARGE

QUANTITIES OF THE AGENTS ANTHRAX AND BOTULINUM TOXIN SINCE

1989. THE IRAQIS PROBABLY HAVE FILLED LIMITED QUANTITIES OF

THESE AGENTS INTO AERIAL BOMBS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS ALREADY

AND MAY EVENTUALLY USE BW AGENTS TO FILL SHORT-RANGE BALLISTIC

MISSILE WARHEADS.

AT LEAST THREE FACILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE IRAQI BW

PROGRAM,

LOCATED AT SALMAN PAK, CONTAINS A SPECIALIZED

RESEARCH BUILDING FOR WORK ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ORGANISMS.

RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, PILOT-SCALE PRODUCTION, AND STORAGE OF

BW AGENTS TAKE PLACE AT THIS SITE.

IRAQI OFFICIALS HAVE STATED THAT THE USE OF ANY WEAPON IS

JUSTIFIED IN DEFENDING THEIR TERRITORY. IRAQ, THE FIRST NATION

TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON THE BATTLEFIELD, MIGHT NOT HESITATE TO

USE BW AGENTS IN EXTREME SITUATIONS. GIVEN THE THOUSANDFOLD

INCREASE IN LETHAL AREA CONTAMINATION FOR CERTAIN BW AGENTS AS

COMPARED WITH CW AGENTS, IRAQ PROBABLY WOULD NOT USE BW AGENTS

EXCEPT IN STRATEGIC RETALIATION FOR UNCONVENTIONAL ATTACKS

AGAINST IRAQI POPULATION CENTERS. IN SUCH A SCENARIO, IRAQ

MIGHT JUDGE THAT ANY INTERNATIONAL CENSURE RESULTING FROM ITS

USE OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WOULD BE AN ACCEPTABLE CONSEQUENCE.

INTRODUCTION

IRAQ S AGGRESSIVE PURSUIT OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

UNDERSCORES OFFICIAL IRAQI STATEMENTS THAT JUSTIFY THE USE OF

ANY WEAPON TO DEFEND ITS TERRITORY. MOREOVER, IRAQ'S USE OF

CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN ITS WAR WITH IRAN SHOWS THAT IRAQ IS

PREPARED TO BACK RHETORIC WITH ACTION--IRAQ WAS THE FIRST

COUNTRY TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON THE BATTLEFIELD.







IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED BOTULINUM TOXIN AND ANTHRAX BACTERIA AS

BW AGENTS BOTULINUM TOXIN DEGRADES RAPIDLY IN THE

ENVIRONMENT, WHILE ANTHRAX SPORES REMAIN VIABLE IN THE

ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.

BOTULINUM TOXIN IS PRODUCED BY CLOSTRIDIUM BOTULINUM, AN

ORGANISM THAT GROWS ANAEROBICALLY, THAT IS, WITHOUT THE

PRESENCE OF AIR. IRAQ SOUGHT ANAEROBIC INCUBATORS AND TONS OF

GROWTH MEDIA FOR CLOSTRIDIUM SEVERAL YEARS AGO.







IRAQ PROBABLY BEGAN LARGE-SCALE PRODUCTION OF ANTHRAX AND

BOTULINUM TOXIN IN 1989. IN ADDITION, SOME LIMITED

WEAPONIZATION PROBABLY HAS TAKEN PLACE ALREADY.

THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE LOCATIONS IN IRAQ INVOLVED IN THE

PRODUCTION OF BW AGENTS: SALMAN PAK, ABU GHRAIB, AND TAJI.







THE ABU GHRAIB AREA, A FEW KILOMETERS WEST OF BAGHDAD IS

THE LOCATION OF A PLANT THAT PRODUCES BOTULINUM TOXIN.







THE TAJI AREA, IN THE NORTHWESTERN SUBURBS OF BAGHDAD, IS

 A SITE OF PILOT-SCALE BW PRODUCTION.







IRAQ HAS AVAILABLE A WIDE RANGE OF WEAPONS SYSTEMS THAT IT

COULD POTENTIALLY USE TO DELIVER BW AGENTS. THE WEAPONS RANGE

FROM SIMPLE AERIAL BOMBS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS TO

SURFACE TO SURFACE MISSILES (SSM-S).

OPEN LITERATURE INDICATES THAT CARDOEN IS COPRODUCING

CLUSTER BOMBS WITH IRAQ







IRAQ MAY ALSO BE PLANNING TO DEVELOP A BIOLOGICAL

FOR ITS SSM'S.          IRAQ HAS

ALREADY DEVELOPED A CHEMICAL WARHEAD FOR ITS SSM. THE NEXT

LOGICAL STEP IN THIS EFFORT WOULD BE TO DEVELOP A BIOLOGICAL

WARHEAD.







EVEN IF BW AGENTS WERE USED IN AN ATTACK, IT WOULD BE

DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE AGENTS HAD IN FACT BEEN

USED FOR EXAMPLE, ANTHRAX IS A COMMON VETERINARY PROBLEM IN

THE MTDDLE EAST, AND UNLESS THERE WAS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE

OUTBREAK OF THE DISEASE IN HUMANS, IT COULD BE EXPLAINED AS

BEING FROM NATURAL CAUSES. IT WOULD ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO

DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN BOTULINUM POISONING AND OTHER FOODBORNE

DISEASES; SYMPTOMS COULD EASILY BE EXPLAINED AS RESULTING FROM

NATURAL CAUSES. AND EVEN IF BOTULINUM TOXIN WAS SUSPECTED AS

BEING USED, ITS RAPID DEGREDATION UPON EXPOSURE TO THE ELEMENTS

WOULD ENSURE THAT NO TRACES OF IT WERE LEFT WITHIN SEVERAL

HOURS AFTER AN ATTACK.

POTENTIAL IRAQI USAGE

PAST IRAQI USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND STATEMENTS BY IRAQI

OFFICIALS JUSTIFYING THE USE OF ANY WEAPON TO DEFEND THEIR

COUNTRY SUGGEST THAT IRAQ WOULD CONSIDER USING BIOLOGICAL

WEAPONS UNDER CERTAIN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES. IRAQ PROBABLY

WOULD SAVE ITS BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS A RETALIATORY OPTION FOR

UNCONVENTIONAL ATTACKS ON IRAQ. GIVEN THE MORE THAN

THOUSANDFOLD INCREASE IN LETHAL AREA CONTAMINATION FOR SOME BW

AGENTS AS COMPARED WITH CW AGENTS, IRAQ PROBABLY VIEWS BW

AGENTS AS A TERROR WEAPON FOR USE AGAINST MILITARY AND CIVILIAN

TARGETS.







BY THE END OF 1990, IRAQ WILL HAVE DEPLOYED A MILITARILY

SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF BIOLOGICALLY FILLED BOMBS AND ARTILLERY

ROCKETS(1). IN ADDITION, IRAQ WILL DEVELOP A BW WARHEAD FOR

ITS INDIGENOUSLY PRODUCED SCUDS. THIS WEAPON COULD BE

OPERATIONALLY READY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW YEARS

(1) BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AREA OF COVERAGE PROVIDED BY

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, EVEN A FEW DOZEN WOULD BE MILITARILY

SIGNIFICANT.

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT BAGHDAD HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED

ADDITIONAL BW AGENTS,

CANDIDATES INCLUDE VIRUSES AND ADDITIONAL

BACTERIA AND TOXINS.







IRAQ WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE EMPHASIS ON ITS BW PROGRAM.

SADDAM, IN HIS QUEST TO BE THE LEADER OF THE ARAB WORLD,

PROBABLY BELIEVES THAT HIS BW PROGRAM PLACES HIM IN AN ELITE

HE HAS ALREADY STATED THAT HE IS THE THIRD

LEADER TO DEVELOP BINARY CHEMICAL WEAPONS







END OF MESSAGE







1.5(C)

65171:65171