Defense Special Assessment



                                                      18 August 1991

                                                      As of 0930 EST





Subject:  IRAQ-KUWAIT: Situation Update





[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]







      In a blunt threat to Washington, Baghdad warned that it would use weapons

of "mass destruction and strategic deterrrance" to repel any attack, according

to the Al Qadisiyah newspaper, the organ of Iraq's Defense Ministry.  Iraq has

a substantial chemical arsenal and has demonstrated a willingness to use it in

combat.  Meanwhile, Iraqi radio taunted US troops deployed in Saudi Arabia saying

that they will be "swallowed by the desert" while their women back home consort

with oil-rich Arabs.





[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]









Outlook



      Saddam Husyan appears worried that US forces will attack Iraqi-occupied

Kuwait and Iraq itself.  Baghdad's apparent threat to use chemical or biological

weapons, its restricting of foreigners [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)] reflect this

apprehension and indicate Iraq's intent to, at a minimum, hold Kuwait. 

Nonetheless, Iraq's forces in Kuwait and southern Iraq are currently sufficient

and properly positioned for a short-notice attack on Saudi Arabia.



[b.2.]