[b.2]















SERIAL:  DSA 71-91



/*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/



SUBJECT:  IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION UPDATE 

       



DOI:  22 JAN 91 (AS OF 0100 EST)

))

MAJOR POINTS

))

[b.1. sec 1.5(c)





2.       THE ABILITY OF IRAQ TO PRODUCE CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL

AGENTS HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DEGRADED.







[b.1. sec 1.5(c)]



SADDAM MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED BY THE LACK OF SUCCESS

OF HIS SRBM FORCE IN ACHIEVING ASSIGNED MILITARY OR POLITICAL

OBJECTIVES.  AN ISRAELI COUNTERSTROKE HAS NOT BEEN PROVOKED, AND

THOSE MISSILES WHICH HAVE REACHED THEIR TARGETS HAVE RESULTED IN

ONLY NEGLIGIBLE DAMAGE.  ADDITIONALLY, THE MISSILES HAVE PROVEN

UNEXPECTEDLY VULNERABLE TO INTERCEPTION AND DESTRUCTION.  THESE

FAILURES MAY RESULT IN THE DECISION TO ESCALATE THE USE OF HIS SRBM

FORCE BY USING CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS, PARTICULARLY

AGAINST



/****** BEGINNING OF SECTION 006 ******/

ISRAEL IN AN EFFORT TO ACH1EVE THE SUCCESS THAT HAS THUS FAR BEEN

DENIED.

12.       CHEMICAL/BIOLOGICAL WARFARE ACTIVITY.  THE ABILITY OF 1RAQ

TO PRODUCE CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL AGENTS HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY

DEGRADED.                                                                                               

[b.1. sec 1.5(c)]