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                          Defense Special Assessment

                                                      18 August 1991
                                                      As of 0930 EST


Subject:  IRAQ-KUWAIT: Situation Update


[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]



      In a blunt threat to Washington, Baghdad warned that it would use weapons
of "mass destruction and strategic deterrrance" to repel any attack, according
to the Al Qadisiyah newspaper, the organ of Iraq's Defense Ministry.  Iraq has
a substantial chemical arsenal and has demonstrated a willingness to use it in
combat.  Meanwhile, Iraqi radio taunted US troops deployed in Saudi Arabia saying
that they will be "swallowed by the desert" while their women back home consort
with oil-rich Arabs.


[b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)]




Outlook

      Saddam Husyan appears worried that US forces will attack Iraqi-occupied
Kuwait and Iraq itself.  Baghdad's apparent threat to use chemical or biological
weapons, its restricting of foreigners [b.1. sec. 1.5.(c)] reflect this
apprehension and indicate Iraq's intent to, at a minimum, hold Kuwait. 
Nonetheless, Iraq's forces in Kuwait and southern Iraq are currently sufficient
and properly positioned for a short-notice attack on Saudi Arabia.

[b.2.]
?