[   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ]

Filename:0129pgv.91
                                                             
11JAN91  18lOHRS   [   (b)(2)   ]

SUBJECT:   [   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ]

     VP Task Force proposes the following for release

Ref subject tasker, para. A. 1 and 2.:

     Please confirm or deny a 2 Oct 199O Egyptian newspaper report 
that the Iraqis conducted chemical and/or biological warfare 
experiments on Iranian POWs.

            DIA is not familiar with the Egyptian newspaper 
report.  There is no information to confirm or deny that Iraq 
conducted chemical and/or biological warfare experiments on 
Iranian POWs.

     What is the DIA assessment on the possible use of biological 
agents such as anthrax in a Gulf war.  What would the dispersal 
means be and in which profiles would they be used?

            BW Delivery Means: Iraq is assessed to have weapons 
containing the biological agents anthrax and botulinum toxin.  
weapon systems for BW delivery are unconfirmed but could include 
cluster and aerial bombs, spray tanks, artillery, or missiles.  BW 
delivery could also be accomplished by use of a truck, plane, 
helicopter, drone or ship equipped with an aerosol generator to
create a large toxic cloud upwind of the target.  Iraq has the 
technical expertise to develop a biological warhead for its 
SCUD-type missiles, although information is lacking about such 
efforts.  One warhead filled with anthrax spores could lethally 
contaminate large areas for extended periods of time.

            Tactical Employment: The use of BW as a tactical 
weapon cannot be ruled out.  Although some characteristics of BW 
agents mitigate their effectiveness on the battlefield, [  (b)(1) 
sec 1.3(a)(2)  ] a tactical situation is not likely due to the 
delayed onset of symptoms: l to 6 days for inhalation of anthrax 
spores.  Anthrax spores can live in the soil for decades, thus 
this agent could be an excellent long term area denial weapon. 
Botulinum toxin could be used as a tactical weapon when a delayed 
effect is
required: onset of symptoms is 6-12 hours for inhalation of 
botulinum toxin.

            Strategic Employment: Iraq is more likely to use BW 
agents strategically.  BW could be used against civilian 
populations or as an area denial weapon against oil fields or 
other industrial or military targets.  A strategic BW attack 
against civilian population centers could result in large-scale 
fatalities and casualties.  Anthrax would make an excellent 
long-term area
denial weapon against territory that Saddam might choose to deny 
to his adversaries.




            Terriorist Use: BW agents could also be delivered by 
terrorist groups or by Iraqi clandestine services against military 
or civilian targets.  Botulinum toxin, and to a lesser degree, 
anthrax bacteria lend themselves to covert dissemination because 
even small amounts placed in water or food supplies are sufficient 
to kill large numbers of people.  Saboteurs could contaminate or
threaten to contaminate water or food supplies.  The difficulty in
distinguishing between a naturally occurring epidemic and covert 
dissemination could provide sufficient cover for Iraq to use BW 
without suffers retaliation.

            Other Scenarios: Biological weapons are generally 
considered to be weapons of last resort.  However, Husayn could 
order their use prior to the onset of hostilities in an attempt to 
weaken the resolve of his enemies.  Husayn could use Bin in 
retaliation for an attack against Iraq, or as a last act of
desperation if he has no other alternative short of surrender.  
DIA has no information on how Iraq may plan to use its biological 
inventory.

Ref Para. B. l., 2., and 3.:

          DI-6B:  Responses to these questions were provided 
verbally by DIA on 8 January [   (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4)   ]    

Ref Para. C.1.:

            We have no information related to referenced report.

Ref Para. C.2.:

           We cannot confirm at this time that the Iraqis are 
reinforcing their forces on the Turkish border.  However, there 
has been a recent increase in reporting, not yet substantiated, 
that the Iraqis have deployed additional field
artillery and ADA to the northern frontier. Recent departures of 
units along the Turkish border include the 39th Infantry Division, 
which is assessed to be in the KTO, and the 11th Mechanized 
Infantry Brigade of the 4th Infantry Division, which may also be 
in the KTO. 

Ref Para. C.3.:

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[   (b)(6)   ]