IRAQI CHEMICAL CAPABILITIES   [   (b)(2)   ]   (U)          REF:  
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Filename:0156pgv.91d
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FEB 91  2030 [   (b)(6)   ]
FROM:   NMIST DIA
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SUBJ:  IRAQI CHEMICAL CAPABILITIES   [   (b)(2)   ]   (U)         
 REF:   [   (b)(2)   ]    
                     
        DIA BELIEVES THAT IRAQ'S NERVE AGENT STOCKS WILL BE 
USELESS AFTER 31 MARCH 1991.  THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED 
DESTRUCTION OF IRAQ'S DINING CHEMICAL AGENT AND PRECURSOR 
PRODUCTION PLANTS AT SAMARRA× AND HABBANIYAH.  AT PRESENT, SOME OF 
THESE PLANTS HAVE NOT BEEN DESTROYED AND MAY STILL BE PRODUCING 
AGENT.
        
	  ASSUMING THE PLANTS ARE DESTROYED BY MID-FEBRUARY, ALL 
UNITARY NERVE AGENT STOCKS SHOULD BE UNSERVICEABLE BY THE END OF 
MARCH.  THE AGENT IS ASSESSED TO BE POOR QUALITY, RESULTING FROM 
LOW PURITY DUE TO P00R IRAQI CHEMICAL ENGINEERING PRACTICES.
        
	 IRAQ COULD RETAIN CHEMICAL WEAPONS AFTER THE 31 MARCH DATE, 
WITH NERVE AGENT IN A BINARY CONFIGURATION AND UNITARY MUSTARD.  
DIA ASSESSES THAT THE INTRODUCTION OF BINARY HAS BEN LIMITED THUS 
FAR, AND THAT THE MUSTARD IS ALSO LOW IN PURITY.
           
	SOME OF IRAQ'S NERVE AGENT STOCKS, MADE DURING DECEMBER 1990 
AND EARLY JANUARY 1991, ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BECOMING UNUSABLE, 
LEAVING IRAQ WITH A "USE-IT-OR-LOSE-IT" PROBLEM.  
IRAQ HAS ONLY LIMITED MEANS AVAILABLE TO DELIVER CHEMICALS AT 
PRESENT, HOWEVER.
        
	THE MUNITIONS THEY HAVE AVAILABLE FOR REACHING ALLIED FORCES 
NOW ARE LIMITED TO AERIAL BOMBS AND MISSILE WARHEADS.  THE NUMBER 
OF MISSILE WARHEADS IS ASSESSED TO BE LIMITED, SO THAT CHEMICAL 
USE COULD NOT BE SUSTAINED BY THIS TYPE OF DELIVERY.  THE LIMITED 
PAYLOAD AND ACCURACY OF IRAQI MISSILES MAKES THEM
SUITABLE ONLY FOR TERRORIST, RATHER THAN MILITARY USE.  ALLIED AIR 
SUPREMACY MAKES THE DELIVERY OF CHEMICAL AGENTS BY IRAQ 'S AIR 
FORCE AN UNCERTAIN PROSPECT AT BEST.
        
	WITHOUT HAVING CONTACT WITH ALLIED FORCES, IRAQ'S ARTILLERY 
AND MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS CANNOT DELIVER CHEMICALS EFFECTIVELY 
SINCE THE LOCATION OF ALLIED FORCES IS UNKNOWN.
        
	THUS FAR, IRAQ HAS CALCULATED THAT THE BENEFITS OF USING 
CHEMICALS ARE INADEQUATE.  IRAQ WILL RETAIN A SIGNIFICANT CHEMICAL 
CAPABILITY WHICH MAY WELL BE USED TO STOP AN ALLIED ATTACK ON 
THEIR PREPARED POSITIONS IN SOUTHERN KUWAIT.
        
	IN REPLY TO SPECIFIC POINTS RAISED IN THIS INQUIRY, THE SIZE 
OF THE IRAQI STOCKPILE IS NOT KNOWN WITH CERTAINTY.  BASED ON 
THEIR PRODUCTION RATES AND PAST PRACTICE, THEY COULD HAVE A 
STOCKPILE OF 300 TO 1000 AGENT TONS OF ALL TYPES OF AGENTS.  BY 15 
FEBRUARY SOME OF IRAQ'S NERVE AGENT STOCKS WILL BE UNUSABLE, BUT
MUSTARD AND POSSIBLY BLOOD AGENT STOCKS WILL REMAIN VIABLE FOR 
MONTHS.  COMPLETE DETERIORATION OF UNITARY NERVE AGENT STOCKS IS 
EXPECTED BY 31 MARCH.  SOME DELIVERY OF NERVE AGENT COULD STILL BE 
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME USING THE LIMITED BINARY STOCKPILE IRAQ 
IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE.
        
	COMMANDERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR CHEMICAL ATTACKS AT ANY 
TIME.  IF IRAQ IS ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY TARGET ALLIED FORCES, 
CHEMICAL ATTACKS USING ALL AGENTS IN THE IRAQI INVENTORY COULD 
OCCUR THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.  NERVE AGENT DELIVERY 
CAPABILITY WILL BE CURTAINED BUT NOT ELIMINATED IN LATE FEBRUARY 
AND EARLY MARCH.  BY THE END OF MARCH, ALL OF IRAQ'S UNITARY NERVE 
AGENT STOCKS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME USELESS.
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