Study on Activity at Samarra since the Beginning of the Crisis (U)

Filename:008bk.90d
[   (b)(2)   ]


                                        28 September 1990


                         INFORMATION PAPER

Subject:    Study on Activity at Samarra since the Beginning of 
the Crisis (U)

1.        Purpose.  To provide JS-SA with an analysis of the 
types,
of actiVity, trends, and peaks of activity at Iraq's Samarra
Chemical Warfare Production Facility.

          Key Points

      -   Iraq is believed to have produced,  filled and stored
Chemical agents and munitions in two production cycles between
April and September 1990.

      -  Iraq's unitary agents are not pure and decompose, 
requiring additional agent production and munitions filling in 
order to maintain an effective chemical warfare (CW) Stockpile.

      -  The first Production/filling cycle is believed to have
occurred from April to mid-August 1990.

                  Activity  believed  to  be  associated  with  
the
           production and transport of chemical precursors and
           chemical warfare agents occurred from April to late 
July
           1990, during which time 600-1,000 MT of nerve agents 
and
           mustard are assessed to have been produced

           --   Chemical munitions filling probably occurred from
           midJuly to 17 August.

           --   Trucks and Chemical-related containers appeared   
            near the Probable CW storage bunkers from July to 12  
             August.  At that time,  the doors to five of eight   
              Cruciform  bunkers were closed for the first time 
Since             January  1990, suggesting the bunkers were 
filled.

           -   The Second production Cycle appears to have begun 
in 		 late  August and continues as of 28 September

           -   Activity near the probable material Storage area 
was
           noted again from late August to 23 September.  Liquid
           transport trucks, perhaps from Habbaniyah II, which may
           have contained chemical precursor for the production of
           nerve agent were observed.                             
        



          
      --   Probable filling activity began 26 September and has
           continued to 28 September.  Periodic cycles of agent   
            production and munitions filling are expected to      
             continue.
      --   Iraq's unitary agents are unstable with a shelf-
           life of 4-6 weeks.  As the chemical agent breaks down,
           agent must be produced and munitions filled.   -

        -  These activities suggest the Iraqis are maintaining, or 
           perhaps increasing, their  munitions stockpile.