OVERVIEW

Filename:0135pgv.00d

OVERVIEW:

        -  There are at least three biological warfare (BW) 
production facilities in Iraq and seventeen refrigerated bunkers 
capable of storing 84 agents/munitions.   Anthrax and botulinum 
toxin are confirmed BW agents which are believed to have been 
weaponlzed.  The Iraqis have shown interest in the development of 
a number of other infectious agents and toxins for 84 purposes but 
the status of development is not known.  It also is not known what 
types of munitions have been filled with 84 agent but could 
include missile warheads, aerial bombs with and without cluster 
submunitions, the super gun, artillery, and spray and aerosol 
generating devices.  BW agents are likely stored in bulk 
containers and in munitions as dried powders and/or liquids.

           The Iraqis have had cultures of the anthrax bacterium
(Baciilus anthracis)  and the bacterium (Clostridium botulinum)
which produces botulinum toxin since early 1986.  The necessary
equipment for production of the agents has been in place for a
longer period.  In the interim, significant quantities of these 84
agents, and possibly others, are believed to have been produced.
Anthrax spores would Pose the greatest risk to humans of any of 
the
confi rmed or suspect Iraqi 84 agents due to its ability to 
survive
in the environment.  Based upon the technical capability of the
Iraqis, it is well within their capacity to have produced and
stored 1,000 kilograms of dried anthrax spores.  This will be used
as the amount of agent which could be stored in bulk containers or
munitions in any one of the seventeen refrigerated bunkers for the
purpose of estimating collateral damage.


TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT:
          The storage bunkers are large with each bunker
having a capacity  of approximately 440,000 kilograms (7.5 million
kilograms collectively for the seventeen bunkers) if all the agent
were stored in bulk containers.  Assuming that 1,000 kilograms of
dried anthrax spores are stored in a bunker in bulk containers,
only about 0.25% of the storage capacity would be utilized.  If
filled munitions are present as well, consequently greater storage
space would be used up.  In either case, 1,000 kilograms would
represent about one million trillion anthrax spores.  If 99.99% of
these spores were killed or somehow contained in the bunker, this
would leave 0.01%, or about 100,000 billion spores for release 
into
the air.  This translates into 5-10 billion human lethal doses.
Alternatively, if only  100 kilograms of dried anthrax spores were
stored and 0.01% released, this would translate into 0.5-1.0
billion human lethal doses.


OTHER CONSIDERATIONS:
              If the storage bunkers are attacked and a plume
results, the spores will be carried into the plume to a height
depending upon the size of the explosion and any resulting fire.
Once in the air, the spores will be carried to a distance 
depending
upon  a number of meteorological  conditions.   Wi nd speed and
temperature gradients (i .e. neutral, inversion) would have the 
most pronounced influence upon dispersal of the aerosol cloud.   
The prospect for the occurrence and maintenance of neutral or 
inversion conditions is most likely between sunset and sunrise.  
Under such conditions and a moderate wind, the cloud would travel 
tens and possible hundreds of kilometers.   More detailed  
analysis  of meteoro1ogical conditions, terrain, and aerosol cloud 
dynamics are still in progress in order to further define the 
potential area of contamination.


PHYSICAL TARGET VULNERABILITY:
                 Detailed vulnerability studies are ongoing to
determine options available to either destroy or contain the BW
agents, or to deny access to them.