Reply to questions Filename:0142pgv.90d [ (b)(2)] suspense: 27 Dec 90 1200 _ Subject: Reply to questions A. What are the current confirmed, probable, and possible IZ weapon systems that can carry biological agents? B. What are the likely methods of delivery of biological agents? Iraq posesses the biological warfare (BW) agents anthrax and botulinum toxin, both of which are believed to weaponized. The Iraqis are known to have acquired forty high capacity aerosol generators in the Spring of 1990 which are suitable for disseminating BW agents over large areas. Other BW munitions, such as aerial bombs, cluster munitions, artillery, spray tanks, and missile warheads, are within the techical capability of the Iraqis, but here is no evidence that they have been developed. If Iraq were to use artillery as a delivery means, the long range l55-mm howitzers would be the most likely candidate. Smaller munitions, such as helicopter launched rockets, present technical difficulties and have limited effectiveness as a method for delivery of biological agents. The most likely method of delivery woold be with a relatively large missile warhead, aerial bomb, or some type of aerosol dispenser. They have shown interest in other biologically-derived toxins and infectious agents, but the status of their development is not known. The Iraqi BW agents have both tactical and non-tactical utility. Biological-derived toxins, such as botulinun toxin, act in about the same time as mustard gas and could be used in tactical situations along the forward edge of the battle area. Botulinum toxin has the added advantage of being relatively non-parsistent (several hours) thereby allowing attacking troops to occupy terrain shortly after use. Artillery, aerial bombs, and spray devices are suitable for delivering toxins. Toxins could also be used by special forces or terrorists to attack selectively troop concentrations to the rear, command centers, or civilian populations. Infectious agents, such as anthrax, have more utility against large area targets since the agents are more resistant to environmental factors, Anthrax can cover very large areas especially when disseminated by aerosol generators or aerial spray devices. Cluster munitions and missile warheads can also be used to disseminate BW agents. Anthrax can be used effectively by special forces to contaminate larger targets, such as airfields and oil fields. Terrorist use of anthrax in cities could result in ten-of-thousands of fatalities in unvaccinated/untreated people. Anthrax begins to decay within hours in full sunlight but can persist for months-to-years once it infiltrates soil or is protected from environmental factors. C. What are the anticipated effects of IZ chemical weapon systems? The questions which were asked require an examination of a large number of variables, such as temperature, wind speed and direction, amount of cloud cover, amount of agent on target, persistence of agent, and lay down patterns for the projectiles. Due to the large number of variables, there is no short answer. The U.S. Army Chemical school has completed a study, "Persistency of Chemical Warfare Agents at High Temperatures." This study which runs some 400 pages has most of the vital information. What is the likelihood of IZ use of chemical or biological weapons by system, and under what circnmstances would they be prone or encouraged to use these capabilities? If war should break out, it could be that Saddam Husayn will use all-forms of chemical combat-capability at his disposal to preserve his .Iraq would consider using infectious biological weapons as a retaliatory for unconventional attacks on Iraq or as a weapon of last resort. Husayn would likely use tactical chemical delivery systems from the outset to inflict maximum casualties, demoralize MNF troops, and complicate MNF operational Use of chemical in a non-tactical mode, such as striking population centers with SOUD type missiles, is also likely, although this may not occur at the outset ofthe war.