Iraqi Use of Biological Weapons, [   (b)(2)   ]

Filename:0161p6v.90d
[   (b)(2)   ]
                   

3 DEC 90 [   (b)(6)   ]_

SUBJECT: Iraqi Use of Biological Weapons, [   (b)(2)   ]
                     
[   (b)(6)   ]

A.     What are the assessed delivery systems that would be used 
for BW?

       BW Delivery: Iraq is assessed to have weapons containing 
the
biological agents anthrax and botulinum toxin. Weapon systems for 
BW delivery are unconfirmed but could include cluster and aerial 
bombs, spray tanks, artillery, or missiles.  BW delivery could 
also be accomplished by use of a truck, plane, helicopter, drone 
or ship equipped with an aerosol generator to create a large toxic 
cloud upwind of the target.  Intelligence information presently 
available does not allow confirmation of any weapon system for BW
delivery.  Due to the lethality, persistence, and delayed effects 
of BW agents, long range-weapon systems including aerial bombs and 
missile warheads would be the preferred delivery means.  Tactical 
weapons such as rockets and artillery shells could be adapted for 
BW, but such weapons would provide a less effective delivery 
means.

       Missile Warhead: Iraq probably intends to develop a 
biological warhead for its Scud-type missiles, although 
information is lacking about such efforts. Iraq has the necessary 
technical expertise to put its biological agents into a missile 
warhead.  One warhead filled with anthrax spores could lethally 
contaminate large areas for extended periods of time.  Effective 
dissemination
would not even be necessary if a BW warhead were to be used as a 
terror weapon against civilian populations.

B.     Under what circumstances will the Iraqis employ BW?  When? 
 Where? What agents?  Etc.

       Tactical Employment: The use of BW as a tactical weapon 
cannot be ruled out. Although some characteristics of BW agents 
mitigate their effectiveness on the battlefield, they could serve 
as a psychological weapon if employed against rear troop 
concentrations.  They could also be used as aerial denial weapons 
against airfields or major supply centers.

     The use of anthrax in a tactical battlefield situation is not 
likely due to the delayed onset of symptoms: 1 to 6 days for 
inhalation of anthrax spores.  The first symptoms are 
nonspecific--- fatigue and a mild fever, followed by a temporary 
recovery and then reversal to sudden development of respiratory
distress.  Death occurs within 24 hours after the onset of 
the-second phase.  Anthrax spores can live in the soil for 
decades, thus this agent is an excellent long term area denial 
weapon.

     Botulinum toxin could be used as a tactical biological weapon 
when a delayed effect is required: onset of symptoms is 6-12 hours 
for inhalation of botulinia toxin.  By the time botulinum toxin 
symptoms develop---about 12 hours after aerosol 
exposure---treatment has little chance of success.  The agent' 
affects the nervous system causing dizziness, dilated and 
nonreactive pupils, progressive muscular weakness, and death.

-         A major concern is the dissemination of botulinum toxin 
on a dust composed of silica or other materials which may 
penetrate clothing or masks and significantly increase the 
possibility of exposure on the battlefield.

       Strategic Employment: Iraq is more likely to use BW agents 
strategically. BW could be used against civilian populations or as 
an area denial weapon against oil fields or other industrial or 
military targets.  A strategic BW attack against civilian 
population centers could result in large-scale fatalities and
casualties.

       Terrorist Use: BW agents could also be delivered by 
terrorist groups or by Iraqi clandestine services against military 
or civilian targets.  Botulinum toxin, and to a lesser degree, 
anthrax bacteria lend themselves to covert dissemination because 
even small amounts placed in water or food supplies are
sufficient to kill large numbers of people.  Saboteurs could 
contaminate or threaten to contaminate water or food supplies.  
The difficulty in distinguishing between a naturally occurring 
epidemic and covert dissemination could provide sufficient cover 
for Iraq to use BW without suffering retaliation.

       Other BW Agents: The Iraqis are likely investigating a 
range of other toxins and live agents.  They have shown an 
interest in developing Clostridium perfringens, Staphylococcus 
enterotoxin B (SEB), and mycotoxins, but information is lacking on 
the status of the development of these agents. 

C.     What would be the aims of the use of BW. i.e. area denial, 
force coalition to negotiations, retaliation, last act of 
desperation, etc.?

     Anthrax would make an excellent long-term area denial weapon 
against oil fields or other strategic territory that Saddam might 
choose to deny to his adversaries.

     BW could be employed prior to the onset of hostilities as a 
psychological weapon in an attempt to weaken resolve to fight an 
enemy equipped and willing to use such a deplorable weapon.

     Saddam could use BW in retaliation for an attack against 
Iraq, or as a last act of desperation if he has no other 
alternative short of surrender.

[   (b)(6)   ]