News



DATE=4/1/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39443
TITLE=CUBA REPORT/REACT
BYLINE=BILL RODGERS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  THE TINY, BUT INFLUENTIAL, GROUP OF CUBAN AMERICAN 
LAWMAKERS IN CONGRESS IS REACTING ANGRILY TO A PENTAGON 
ASSESSMENT THAT CUBA  NO  LONGER REPRESENTS A NATIONAL SECURITY 
THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.  THE LAWMAKERS MAINTAIN CUBA'S 
COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO POSE A SERIOUS DANGER, BUT 
MILITARY EXPERTS DISAGREE.  V-O-A'S BILL RODGERS TAKES A LOOK AT 
THE ISSUE AND HAS THIS REPORT.

TEXT:  THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT'S ASSESSMENT ON CUBA, WHICH HAS 
BEEN LEAKED TO THE PRESS, HAS ALREADY DRAWN A STRONG DENUNCIATION
FROM CUBAN-AMERICAN LAWMAKERS AND OTHER MEMBERS OF CONGRESS.  THE
CLASSIFIED STUDY -- COMMISSIONED BY THE SENATE -- REPORTEDLY 
CONCLUDES THAT CUBA DOES  NOT  REPRESENT A NATIONAL SECURITY 
THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.  PENTAGON SPOKESMEN HAVE REFUSED 
SPECIFIC COMMENT ON THE ASSESSMENT, BUT SAY EARLIER STUDIES HAVE 
REACHED SIMILAR FINDINGS.  

THE ASSESSMENT REPORTEDLY SAYS THAT CUBA'S MILITARY  -- NUMBERING
SOME 100-THOUSAND MEN AND WOMEN -- IS SMALLER THAN DURING THE 
COLD WAR AND IS NOW GEARED TOWARD A DEFENSIVE ROLE.  THE STUDY 
SAYS THE SERVICES -- ARMY, NAVY, AND AIR FORCE -- SUFFER FROM 
SEVERE SHORTAGES OF FUEL AND SPARE PARTS.  

BUT CUBAN-AMERICAN LAWMAKERS REJECT THESE CONCLUSIONS.  FLORIDA 
REPUBLICAN ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN NOTES THAT DESPITE A SHORTAGE OF 
SPARE PARTS, CUBAN MIGS WERE ABLE TO SHOOT DOWN TWO UNARMED 
CIVILIAN PLANES IN 1996, KILLING THE FOUR CUBAN-AMERICAN PILOTS. 
AT A NEWS CONFERENCE THIS WEEK, MS. ROS-LEHTINEN SHARPLY 
CRITICIZED THE REPORT'S AUTHORS FOR NOT CONSIDERING OTHER FACTORS
IN MAKING THEIR ASSESSMENT.

                      /// ROS-LEHTINEN ///

         HOW ABOUT THE DRUG TRAFFICKERS WE HAVE FILMED ACTUALLY 
         ENTERING INTO CUBAN WATERS TO EVADE OUR D-E-A PATROL 
         BOATS?  AND ASK WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE LOURDES (IN 
         CUBA) INTELLIGENCE CENTER THAT EVEN HAD OUR U-S MILITARY
         PLANS ABOUT THE PERSIAN GULF MILITARY INVASION, AND WHAT
         ABOUT ALL THE GUERRILLA GROUPS CASTRO HAS SUPPORTED IN 
         LATIN AMERICA -- AND STILL YOU WOULD CONCLUDE THAT THIS 
         NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES? SHAME ON 
         THOSE INDIVIDUALS (WHO WROTE THE REPORT) AND I WOULD 
         LIKE THEM TO MEET WITH THE FAMILIES OF THOSE FOUR FALLEN
         PILOTS AND TELL THEM CASTRO IS  NO  THREAT TO THEIR 
         SAFETY.

                         /// END ACT ///

IN A LETTER TO DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN, CONGRESSWOMAN 
ROS-LEHTINEN AND EIGHT OTHER LAWMAKERS EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT 
THE STILL-UNPUBLISHED PENTAGON ASSESSMENT.  THEY WARNED THAT CUBA
COULD DEVELOP BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS, IN ADDITION TO 
POSING OTHER DANGERS FOR THE UNITED STATES.

BUT MANY MILITARY EXPERTS AND CUBA SPECIALISTS DISAGREE.  
RECENTLY RETIRED MARINE GENERAL JOHN SHEEHAN WAS IN CUBA LAST 
MONTH AND SAYS NOTHING HE SAW CAUSED HIM CONCERN. 

                       ///SHEEHAN ACT/// 

         THEIR STRATEGY, THEIR ORGANIZATION, THEIR WHOLE THEORY 
         IS A DEFENSIVE CONCEPT.

                          ///END ACT///

//OPT// GENERAL SHEEHAN, WHO UNTIL LAST SEPTEMBER WAS HEAD OF THE
U-S SOUTHERN COMMAND, ALSO TOLD REPORTERS HE HAS SEEN NO EVIDENCE
-- EITHER ON THE GROUND OR FROM INTELLIGENCE REPORTS -- THAT CUBA
IS WORKING ON BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. //END OPT//

A SPECIALIST ON THE CUBAN MILITARY, FORMER NAVAL WAR COLLEGE 
PROFESSOR RAYMOND DUNCAN, NOTES THAT CUBA'S MILITARY CAPABILITIES
ALSO ARE HAMPERED BY THE POOR STATE OF THE ECONOMY.  

                      ///DUNCAN ACT///    

         THE ECONOMY IS  NOT  THERE TO SUPPORT THEM.  IN OTHER 
         WORDS, YOU NEED A STRONG INDUSTRIAL BASE TO SUPPORT A 
         MILITARY AND THEY DON'T HAVE IT.

                          ///END ACT///

BUT CUBAN-AMERICAN LAWMAKERS AND OTHERS ON CAPITOL HILL CONTINUE 
TO WARN AGAINST ANY PENTAGON REVISION OF CUBA'S MILITARY THREAT. 
CONGRESSMAN LINCOLN DIAZ-BALART TOLD REPORTERS THIS WEEK HE 
BELIEVES THE PENTAGON ASSESSMENT IS PART OF AN OVERALL STRATEGY 
BY THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION TO SOFTEN  U-S POLICY TOWARD CUBA.

               /// DIAZ-BALART SPANISH ACT ///   

SPECIALISTS LIKE RAYMOND DUNCAN AGREE THE NEW PENTAGON REPORT MAY
HAVE BROADER POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- AND EVENTUALLY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE LONGSTANDING U-S ECONOMIC EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA. 

                        ///DUNCAN ACT///

         IF THE PENTAGON MAKES A NATIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT AND
         SAYS THAT CUBA IS NO LONGER A SECURITY THREAT, THEN WHY 
         HAVE AN ECONOMIC EMBARGO LAW?  IT WOULDN'T MAKE A LOT OF
         SENSE, IT WOULDN'T SEEM.  THAT (THE EMBARGO) IS IN PLACE
         BECAUSE OF THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTION THAT IT IS A 
         SECURITY THREAT, SO YOU NEED AN EMBARGO TO KIND OF 
         CONTAIN IT.

                         ///END ACT/// 

CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SAYS THE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA 
ARE PART OF A BROADER POLICY TO ENCOURAGED DEMOCRACY THERE.

THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT WAS SCHEDULED TO RELEASE ITS ASSESSMENT ON
TUESDAY.  BUT THE WASHINGTON POST NEWSPAPER REPORTS IT WAS 
DELAYED SO THAT STRONGER LANGUAGE COULD BE ADDED TO BRING IT IN 
LINE WITH THE TOUGH U-S POLICY AGAINST CUBA.  PENTAGON SPOKESMEN 
HAVE DENIED THIS. 

                         ///REST OPT///

MEANWHILE, CUBA'S TOP DIPLOMAT IN WASHINGTON, FERNANDO REMIREZ, 
SAYS HIS COUNTRY IS NOT A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.  HE TOLD 
REPORTERS THIS WEEK THAT IF THE PENTAGON REPORT REACHES THIS 
CONCLUSION -- IT WILL REFLECT REALITY. (SIGNED)

NEB/WFR/JO 

01-Apr-98 4:35 PM EST (2135 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.