News


DATE=4/14/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40045
TITLE=CIA/ENVIRONMENT
BYLINE=GREG FLAKUS
DATELINE=LOS ANGELES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:    AT THE RECENT SYMPOSIUM ON U-S MILITARY INVOLVEMENT IN 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AT CAMP PENDLETON MARINE BASE IN 
CALIFORNIA, AN ANALYST FROM THE U-S CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, 
OR C-I-A, ARGUED THAT MANY OF THE THREATS TO WORLD PEACE TODAY 
STEM FROM ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS.  V-O-A'S GREG FLAKUS HAS MORE 
FROM OUR WEST COAST BUREAU.



TEXT:   THE JOB OF THE C-I-A IS TO GATHER INFORMATION FROM AROUND
THE WORLD TO HELP POLICY MAKERS AND MILITARY PLANNERS IN 
WASHINGTON.   WHILE MOST OF THE SPY AGENCY'S FOCUS IS ON 
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES, THERE IS AN INCREASING EMPHASIS ON
THE ENVIRONMENT.

TERRY FLANNERY WORKS AT THE C-I-A'S ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER NEAR 
LANGLEY, VIRGINIA.  HE TOLD THE CAMP PENDLETON HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE CONFERENCE THAT INDONESIA IS A NATION WITH ECONOMIC 
AND SOCIAL TENSIONS THAT COULD BE MADE WORSE BY CURRENT DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD FIRES.

                      /// FLANNERY ACT  ///

         OUR CONCERNS ARE THAT WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS 
         THEY HAVE HAD, WITH THE FIRES WHICH ARE STILL GOING, THE
         ECONOMIC PROBLEMS WHICH ARE NOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT-- 
         THAT THESE THINGS WILL EXACERBATE SOME UNDERLYING 
         PROBLEMS WITH RELIGIOUS DIFFERENCES AND A SENSE THAT THE
         OUTLYING ISLANDS ARE NOT REALLY PART OF THE CENTRAL 
         GOVERNMENT AND THAT KIND OF TENSION CAN QUICKLY 
         DETERIORATE INTO CONFLICT, EVEN CIVIL WAR.  WHEN THOSE 
         KINDS OF THINGS HAPPEN, THEN THE U-S MILITARY GETS 
         INVOLVED, PARTICULARLY, IN THIS CASE, IF SHIPPING WERE 
         THREATENED.  

                         /// END ACT ///

MR FLANNERY SAYS JAPAN AND CHINA BOTH CONSIDER THE SHIPPING 
THROUGH THE STRAITS NEAR INDONESIA VITAL TO THEIR INTERESTS AND 
WOULD LIKELY CALL ON THE UNITED STATES FOR HELP IF A THREAT TO 
SHIPPING SHOULD OCCUR.  HE DID  NOT PREDICT THAT SUCH A CRISIS 
WOULD DEVELOP, BUT HE SAID THE SITUATION REQUIRES CLOSE 
ATTENTION.

AN EVEN GREATER THREAT, LONG TERM, MAY BE POSED BY CHINA'S 
GROWING POPULATION AND RAPIDLY EXPANDING ECONOMY, ACCORDING TO 
THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY ANALYST.  TERRY FLANNERY SAYS THE
MASSIVE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS IN INEFFICIENT PLANTS IS A SOURCE
OF IRRITATION FOR ITS NEIGHBORS AND AN EVENTUAL PROBLEM FOR THE 
WORLD'S ECOLOGY AS A WHOLE.

                    /// FLANNERY ACT # 2 ///

         CHINA RIGHT NOW USES COAL FOR ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF ITS 
         ENERGY.  THEY ARE INDUSTRIALIZING, THEY ARE MODERNIZING,
         THEY ARE GROWING AND WE SEE NO NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS TO 
         THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS.  THAT IS, THEY ARE GOING 
         TO HAVE TO USE COAL (AS AN ENERGY SOURCE) AND WITH THIS 
         USE OF COAL THEY ARE GOING TO POLLUTE A LOT.  THAT 
         POLLUTION AFFECTS NOT JUST THE HEALTH OF THEIR PEOPLE, 
         WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT, BUT IT ALSO DECREASES THEIR 
         AGRICULTURE AND IT IS GOING TO CAUSE, AT SOME POINT, 
         TENSION WITH THEIR NEIGHBORS.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR FLANNERY SAYS U-S INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS ARE NOT MONITORING 
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AROUND THE WORLD SIMPLY AS PASSIVE 
OBSERVERS.   HE SAYS U-S POLITICAL AND MILITARY LEADERS CAN PLAY 
A ROLE IN PREVENTING CRISES CAUSED BY ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS IN 
CHINA AND ELSEWHERE.

                    /// FLANNERY ACT  #3  ///

         THE GOOD NEWS IS WE CAN HELP.  I THINK THE BEST WAY WE 
         CAN HELP IS BY MAKING THEM AWARE OF THE PROBLEMS THEY 
         HAVE.  I THINK IF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES 
         PRESENT TO THEM WHAT WE THINK THEIR PROBLEMS ARE AND 
         SHOW THEM THE THINGS THAT WORK AND DO NOT WORK FOR US, 
         THEY ACTUALLY DO PAY ATTENTION.  WE ARE NOT VIEWED AS 
         HOSTILE, NECESSARILY.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR FLANNERY SAYS THE INCREASING EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING IS 
ALSO DRIVING WORLD LEADERS TO SEEK SOLUTIONS TO AIR POLLUTION 
PROBLEMS IN PARTICULAR.  HE SAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES 
FACING HUMANKIND WILL REQUIRE AN ENORMOUS COOPERATIVE EFFORT ON 
THE PART OF GOVERNMENTS WORLDWIDE IN THE YEARS TO COME.  (SIGNED)



NEB/PT

14-Apr-98 4:33 PM EDT (2033 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.