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DATE=8/11/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41121 TITLE=TERRORISM / MIDEAST ANALYSIS BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB DATELINE=CAIRO CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: THE BOMB ATTACKS AT U-S EMBASSIES IN KENYA AND TANZANIA BROUGHT INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION FOR THE LOSS OF INNOCENT LIFE. THEY ALSO BROUGHT PLEDGES BY THE GOVERNMENTS AFFECTED TO BRING TO JUSTICE THOSE RESPONSIBLE AND CONSIDERABLE SPECULATION ABOUT WHO WOULD DO SUCH A THING AND FOR WHAT REASONS. MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT SCOTT BOBB TALKED WITH EXPERTS ON TERRORISM AND HAS THIS REPORT ON THEIR VIEWS ABOUT THE SUBJECT. TEXT: ANALYSTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST JOINED IN CONDEMNING THE BOMB ATTACKS IN KENYA AND TANZANIA, SAYING FOR MOST PEOPLE IN THE REGION, THE ACTS WERE ABHORRENT AND INHUMANE. BUT, THEY ALSO NOTE THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF FRUSTRATION OVER WHAT ARE PERCEIVED TO BE INJUSTICES ON THE PART OF THE WORLD COMMUNITY AND IN PARTICULAR UNITED STATES. THEY SAY FRUSTRATION OVER THE APPARENT INABILITY OF THEIR LEADERS TO RIGHT THE SITUATION ENCOURAGES ACTS OF VIOLENCE. THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CAIRO'S AL-AHRAM CENTER FOR POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES, MOHAMED SAYED SA'ID, SPOKE TO V-O-A ABOUT POSSIBLE REASONS BEHIND THE ATTACKS IN KENYA AND TANZANIA. /// FIRST SAYED ACTUALITY /// IN THE FIRST PLACE, THIS IS A DECLARATION OF PRESENCE, THAT THEY ARE HERE IN THE FIRST PLACE. SECONDLY, THE SECOND MESSAGE IS THAT THEY HAVE A GLOBAL REACH, THEY ARE NOT A MEAGER OR SMALL-SIZED ORGANIZATION. /// END ACTUALITY /// MANY EXPERTS BELIEVE THE INCIDENTS ARE RELATED TO ISSUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THEY NOTE SEVERAL TERRORIST GROUPS HAVE TARGETED U-S INTERESTS IN ORDER TO PROTEST U-S POLICIES IN THE REGION. PROFESSOR SAYED SAYS A NUMBER OF THESE GROUPS MET EARLIER THIS YEAR IN CENTRAL ASIA AND AGREED TO FORM A UNITED FRONT. /// OPT /// HE SAYS SOME OF THESE GROUPS STRONGLY OBJECT TO THE U-S MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE ARAB WORLD AND IN PARTICULAR IN SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH IS HOME TO THE TWO HOLIEST SHRINES IN ISLAM. /// OPT /// OTHER GROUPS OBJECT TO A RECENT INTERNATIONAL EXTRADITION AGREEMENT THAT HAS SEEN MANY DISSIDENTS RETURNED HOME FOR TRIAL AND PRISON. SOME OF THESE DISSIDENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CONVICTED OF TERRORISM, BUT OTHERS HAVE NOT BEEN TRIED, CAUSING PROTESTS FROM HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS. /// OPT /// MANY OF THESE GROUPS CRITICIZE THE LACK OF PROGRESS TOWARD PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THEY SYMPATHIZE WITH THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE. THEY BLAME THE STALEMATE ON ISRAEL AND WHAT THEY SEE AS U-S POLICIES THAT FAVOR ISRAELI POSITIONS OVER PALESTINIAN ONES. /// END OPT /// A RESEARCHER AT THE AL-AHRAM CENTER, HALLA MOUSTAFA, SAYS BECAUSE OF U-S POLICIES, ISLAMISTS ARE GAINING SUPPORT IN THE REGION, FOLLOWING SEVERAL YEARS OF SETBACKS. /// HALLA ACTUALITY /// THE U-S ADMINISTRATION, MAYBE IT HAS TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THIS ANIMOSITY WHICH WAS GROWING AMONG THE ARAB PEOPLES AGAINST THE U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE PEACE PROCESS. /// END ACTUALITY /// PROFESSOR HALLA SAYS THE U-S GOVERNMENT IS PERCEIVED AS FAVORING ISRAEL IN THE PEACE PROCESS AND THIS PERCEPTION IS REDUCING ITS DIPLOMATIC EFFECTIVENESS IN THE REGION. U-S OFFICIALS DISPUTE THIS ASSERTION AND SAY THEY ARE EQUALLY FRUSTRATED WITH THE LACK OF PROGRESS IN THE PEACE PROCESS, BUT SAY PRIVATELY THEY FEAR THE STALEMATE MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THERE IS A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT IN ISRAEL. ARAB LEADERS SAY THEY FEAR A RESURGENCE OF VIOLENCE IN THE REGION IF THE CRISIS IS NOT DEFUSED. /// REST OPT /// PROFESSOR SAYED NOTES, DESPITE THE FRUSTRATION MOST PEOPLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST REJECT TERRORISM BECAUSE VIOLENCE GOES AGAINST THEIR RELIGION AND HURTS THEIR POLITICAL CAUSES. /// 2ND SAYED ACTUALITY /// I THINK EVENTS OF THIS NATURE ARE UNIVERSALLY CONDEMNED IN THE ARAB AND ISLAMIC WORLD BECAUSE THEY CONTINUE TO POLLUTE THE IMAGE OF ISLAM AND THEY ARE INTENDED TO REVERSE THE RISING SYMPATHY WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, WITH THE PLIGHT OF THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE, AND THE NEED TO DO JUSTICE TO THE PALESTINIANS. /// END ACTUALITY /// SOME ANALYSTS IN THE REGION SUGGEST THE CAMPAIGN OF TERRORISM MAY BE COMING FROM GROUPS THAT DO NOT WISH TO SEE PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. MANY DISAGREE. BUT VIRTUALLY ALL ACKNOWLEDGE VIOLENCE LIKE THE BOMBINGS IN KENYA AND TANZANIA DISRUPTS NORMAL LIFE, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, AND DIVERTS THE ATTENTION OF WORLD LEADERS FROM COOPERATION ON THE JOINT PURSUIT OF LONG-TERM STRATEGIC GOALS. THEY SAY THAT MAY WELL SERVE THE INTERESTS OF THOSE FOR WHOM THESE LONG-TERM GOALS REPRESENT A THREAT. (SIGNED) NEB/SB/RAE 11-Aug-98 12:09 PM EDT (1609 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .