70 Assessing Emerging Threats Through Open
Sources
by Graham H. Turbiville Jr.; Lieutenant Colonel
Karl E. Prinslow, US Army; and Lieutenant Colonel Robert E. Waller, US Army,
Retired
The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) has systematically exploited open-source information for nearly 15 years. In fall 1997, FMSO began participating in a major new analytical and database-building project to study emerging threats.1 At that time, FMSO became a trainer and manager for an innovative new pilot project developed and sponsored by the Community Open Source Program (COSP), an organization specifically established to promote interagency use of open-source military and security information.2 This pilot program—known as the World Basic Information Library (WBIL)—uses skilled Reserve Component (RC) personnel from all services, operating in "virtual teams" around the world, to build an authoritative open-source database of military and other security-related information.3 RC team members also provide "value added" through informed commentary on the open-source materials they collect and catalog. WBIL distance drilling teams and team members are linked through Open Source Information System (OSIS), managed by COSP.
The OSIS is a virtual private network—an intranet—established in 1994 and currently managed by COSP. Using firewall and password protection, OSIS provides US government personnel access to foreign open-source material hosted by over 30 government agencies and organizations including FMSO. To be eligible for OSIS use, one must be a member of one of the US government's departments or agencies charged to execute intelligence activities or be a consumer of the services and products of such organizations. OSIS user system requirements are: a personal computer with Windows 95/98/NT operating systems, a modem for Internet connectivity via a telephone line, a standard Internet web browser, such as Netscape Navigator or Microsoft Internet Explorer and an analog phone line.
Materials hosted on OSIS sites are voluminous and include:
Search engines provide users sophisticated means to launch queries for information on OSIS sites generally, within specialized databases hosted on OSIS and for the Internet and World Wide Web overall. OSIS sites include a vast collection of links to pertinent Internet sites, and the system allows seamless movement past the firewall to access these sites as desired. Perhaps most significantly, OSIS provides the capability to connect remotely from almost any place with commercial telephone lines; consequently, analysts and planners can work from their regular offices or unit locations, from deployment sites, while traveling or from their homes. Finally, the Systran translation tool developed by the National Air Intelligence Center (NAIC) enables OSIS to quickly translate 10 different languages into English, and from English into several foreign languages.
US Army uniformed and civilian personnel whose official duties may require access to material on the OSIS may apply for access to the Army Ground Intelligence Support Activity-CONUS (GISA), Fort Bragg, North Carolina. GISA has long been making OSIS available to Army tactical units and others who desire connectivity. If you wish to access this valuable resource, contact Ms. Emma Covin at (910) 396-8619 or DSN 236-8619 or E-mail at <covine@bragg.army.mil>.
Other military services and US government civilian employees meeting criteria for OSIS access should contact COSP at (703) 733-5802 to identify their respective service managers for OSIS accounts.
Reservists of all services may contact Mr. Ed Waller, COSP, by calling 703-733-6009 or by E-mail:<rew@copso.osis.gov>. Reservists interested in the distance drilling concept and working on the WBIL project, to include the African and Latin American regional components as well as the new Emerging Threats project, should contact Lieutenant Colonel Karl Prinslow at FMSO, 604 Lowe Drive, Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027; via phone at 913-684-5963 commercial or DSN 552-5963; or via E-mail: <prinslok@leav-emh1.army.mil>.
The OSIS-based WBIL program has validated the concept of open-source exploitation and analysis by joint reservists operating in virtual teams. It has benefited from strong supporters in the US Congress, representatives of the Joint Reserve Intelligence Program from all services and knowledgeable open-source specialists. In spring 1999, a significant new development occurred in the WBIL project when it began focusing on open sources to assess emerging and enduring trans-national threats to US security interests. This article addresses the program's broad outlines, its planned Fiscal Year 2000 expansion to add more emerging-threat virtual teams and the potential participation of selected Joint Reserve Intelligence Centers (JRICs). Before discussing this program, however, it is useful to say a few words about open sources and their value in assessing military and security issues.
Open Sources and the Analysis of Military and Security Problems
For years military planners, intelligence professionals and other analysts have used open-source information to understand foreign viewpoints and relevant social, economic, military and security issues. In the past, many organizations charged with preparing military assessments and estimates tacitly, if skeptically, recognized the analytic value of open sources. When the concept that eventually led to FMSO's creation was first discussed in the Army and Department of Defense in 1985, this skepticism pervaded the staffing process. Some questioned using open Soviet military writings for insight into their tactics, operational art and strategy, believing that such materials were no more than disinformation.
Recounting earlier achievements and subsequent open-source successes largely changed this judgment. The critical review and evaluation of open sources by analysts with area knowledge, requisite functional skills and language expertise demonstrated that extraordinarily valuable information could be mined even from institutions determined to keep secrets or deceive outsiders, because they still had to communicate and exchange ideas among themselves.4 Indeed, looking back over four decades of the Cold War, those relatively few analysts who carefully read Soviet military, political, economic and scientific materials provided valuable insights into the Soviet Union's military forces, defense industrial base and overall infrastructure.5
What was true for the highly structured Soviet material—where even a slight change in phrasing or placement of material had meaning—also proved true for the far more volatile, ambiguous and often unstructured information from Third World governments, dissident and insurgent groups, commercial and private organizations and individuals as well. Alan Tompkins, who made invaluable contributions to the development of open-source exploitation methodologies and training, explains the value of multiple sources: "A skilled, experienced journalist, a foreign academic researcher, a local government official and a 10th grader from Wichita all write reports describing the same event. Each report is published electronically. Zealots from a small religious sect and members of the Flat Earth Society also publish reports. A skilled analyst will be able to form a balanced picture from these different, often contentious points of view."6
In the immediate postCold War period, the growing value of open sources for addressing traditional security problems and a host of new or revitalized security challenges led to more formal definitions. A Director of Central Intelligence defined "Open Source Information" (OSI) more precisely:
" . . . publicly available information (any member of the public could lawfully obtain the information by request or observation), as well as other unclassified information that has limited public distribution or access. OSI also includes any information that may be used in an unclassified context without compromising national security or intelligence sources and methods. If the information is not publicly available, certain legal requirements relating to collection, retention and dissemination may apply."7
Subsequent developments further highlighted the role and values of OSI. By middecade this led to the appearance in Joint Doctrine (Joint Publication 102) of the newly designated Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), which linked OSI and intelligence as "information of potential intelligence value that is available to the general public."8 The OSI's value on the eve of the new millennium is enhanced by four fundamental factors.
First, key national security-related OSI information is more available than
ever. This information is readily accessible, relatively inexpensive, growing in
volume and well suited for systematic exploitation and incorporation into
products based on a variety of sources. Second, new information-management
technologies have substantially increased the value of open-source information
by enabling its rapid and effective organization, evaluation and integration.
Third, early changes in post
Cold War security challenges have accelerated at
the end of the century, creating national, international and transnational
security problems. Understanding these developments depends on systematically
exploiting primary open sources. Fourth, a range of new techniques and
procedures helps analyze enduring and nontraditional security challenges. Open
sources provide such specific background as:
Complex security environments around the world increasingly require joint and interagency use and assessment of open sources, drawing on the expertise and perspectives of the academic community, foreign governments and nongovernment organizations. In particular, open-source programs effectively use RC resources for research and analysis.
Overall, military planners and analysts should use open sources first. The low cost, reduced risk and high return are clear today, and new information-management technologies promise to make these features even more valuable. These kinds of considerations spawned, then validated the WBIL project. The next development phase—emphasizing emerging and transnational threats and interpreting regional open-source material—is under way. Before looking at the construct for assessing emerging threats, it is necessary to add more details about the WBIL project.
World Basic Information Library
As a computer database—a virtual library—of cataloged information about regions and countries of the world, the WBIL is built and maintained by RC personnel operating in virtual teams, each overseen by a virtual team leader. Using COSP-sponsored software and a dial-in Internet connection, reservists can access the WBIL server from most telephones around the world. They also communicate with one another via OSIS E-mail.9 The WBIL pilot, which began in 1997, was directed at African states. Latin American teams, a China team and teams addressing transnational security issues now exist and other areas will be phased in over the months ahead.
WBIL's virtual library provides quality open-source information that satisfies many of the US government's foreign information requirements as stated in more than 750 separate topics—specifically those of the intelligence community, DOD and other national security-oriented organizations. The WBIL regional databases supplement the available highly classified information and provide the context and "outer edges of the jigsaw puzzle" for regional analysts and military planners.10
Since WBIL information is analyzed and evaluated before being cataloged, searching its database is more effective and efficient than unstructured Internet "surfing." Reservists identify key information in Internet searches and select materials to be entered into the library. Information and documents come from many different sources and may include foreign-oriented security materials scanned or translated from hard-copy originals.
With over 100 joint reserve participants from all services currently, the project continues to recruit additional volunteers, whose participation is not limited by geographic region, specialty or grade. Participants include a medical doctor in West Africa, foreign service personnel around the world, university librarians, law enforcement personnel, people with special operations backgrounds, computer software salesmen and graduate degree candidates.
From the earliest stages of the WBIL project, FMSO partners and sponsors have favored using WBIL as the basis of a program designed to assess emerging and transnational threats. This included both focused analysis and the building of supporting data collections. As the international security environment has continued to evolve, this interest has intensified, as identified in the latest US National Security Strategy and National Military Strategy; the issuance of Presidential Decision Directive (PDD) 62 (Counter-terrorism) and PDD-63 (Protection of Critical Infrastructure); and in the recently created Senate Armed Services "Emerging Threats Sub-Committee," chaired by Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas.11 As a consequence, the emerging and transnational threat component of WBIL is expanding, with future developments under consideration.
Emerging and Transnational Threat Assessment
In late March 1999, FMSO took the first steps toward implementing this program, establishing the first WBILbased emerging/transnational threat team. Composed of reservists with pertinent backgrounds, including law enforcement experience, each team member focuses on a specific emerging or transnational threat issue. In consultation with joint community partners, FMSO designated five areas of analytical focus, each initially addressed by one or two team members:
The first emerging/transnational threat team is testing, modifying and developing the WBIL system to best address emerging and transnational issues and will provide the cadre for future teams, team leaders and fully developed "virtual centers." FMSO will serve as an open-source management and assessment center. The cutting-edge information management capabilities of FMSO's parent organization, the Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL), will serve as a platform for launching the emerging threat program. New distance drilling (virtual) teams will gather, evaluate, select and enter basic and current emerging threat data into WBIL, then analyze and assess key issues for a wide range of US government users on the OSIS-based WBIL and FMSO sites.
New connectivity and information-management capabilities are improving the WBIL project. These include collaborative software, which enhances virtual team training and interaction by allowing text and audio collaboration on pertinent issues from multiple locations. In addition, WBIL is integrating the PATHFINDER analytical tool, which can handle vast amounts of open-source information and provide high-quality, prioritized returns. As the emerging threat teams develop virtual aspects, potential physical sites for each threat discipline could include interested JRICs. The Joint Reserve Intelligence Connectivity program has already provided computers and access to OSIS and the World Wide Web.12
The concept now being implemented by FMSO comprises the following five major elements:
FMSO and other joint community partners value the WBIL program and its effective combination of open sources, Reservists and distance drilling. This new program will help policy makers, military planners and analysts understand the critical emerging threats. MR
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the position of the Department of the Army; the Department of Defense or any other government office or agency.—Editor
1.FMSO, a component of the US Army's Center for Army Lessons Learned, researches, writes and publishes from unclassified sources about the military establishments, doctrines and strategic, operational and tactical practices of selected foreign armed forces. It also studies a variety of civilmilitary and transnational security issues affecting the US military, such as peacekeeping and peace enforcement, counterdrug support, terrorism, insurgency and peacetime contingency operations.
2.The Community Open Source Program Office (COSPO) was created under the auspices of the Director of Central Intelligence in 1992. It recently became part of the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), the premier collector, translator and distributor of foreign-media materials. Under FBIS, the organization is now the COSP.
3.WBIL was created on the initiative of Robert E. Waller (COSP) and CDR Mark Garrow, USN, Office of Naval Intelligence. CAPT John Aaron, USN, Joint Reserve Intelligence Center, Fort Gillem, Georgia, is the WBIL virtual unit commander and provides critical administrative support to virtual team members from all services. Bill Schultheis is the COSP chief scientist and provides the developmental expertise for the WBIL project.
4.As with all information, analysts critically consider and evaluate open-source information before incorporating it into all-source products. They are attentive to the potential for deception, perception management and the requirements of operations security that must be taken into account.
5.Foremost among those open source pioneers were COL William Scott and Dr. Harriet Scott, who taught a generation of analysts the value of careful and innovative open source foreign language research. Their many books, articles, translations and database products—together with their continuing contributions—are superb examples of open source materials contributions to military and security studies.
6.Describing open sources' relationship to classified sources, Tomkins notes: "Because of the breadth of coverage they provide, open sources may often contain specific information not available elsewhere. They can also help to provide the context of a situation. Like the outer pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, they help to bring focus on the critical, missing inner pieces that may only be found in classified collection." Alan Tompkins, "Introduction to Open Sources—Why all the interest in OS Now," Briefing, 30 September 1998. Tompkins, who passed away on 4 April 1999, left a legacy of writings and information technology contributions that will benefit the defense community for years to come.
7.Director of Central Intelligence Directive (DCID) 2/12, Coordination of Open Source Intelligence, effective 1 June 1992.
8.Department of Defense Joint Publication 1-02, Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office [GPO], 23 March 1994).
9.The WBIL server will be transferred to Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, where it will be maintained by the Center for Army Lessons Learned.
10.Tompkins, "Introduction to Open Sources."
11.The full name of the new Senate Armed Services body is the Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee. The issues that the subcommittee addresses and the kinds of agencies involved are illustrated by the 16 March 1999 hearings, where testimony on information warfare and critical infrastructure protection were received in open and closed hearings. Witnesses included GEN Robert T. Marsh, USAF (Retired), chairman of the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection; Mr. Michael A. Vatis, deputy assistant director and chief, National Infrastructure Protection Center, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Mr. Arthur L. Money, senior civilian official, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence; and MG John Campbell, USAF, director of the Joint Task Force for Computer Network Defense. Subsequent hearings have dealt with terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, international narcotics trafficking and other issues.
12.If ultimately judged desirable, this dimension will require coordination and oversight by OSD offices—the assistant secretary of defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence and the assistant secretary of defense for Reserve Affairs, as well as input, guidance and support by the service Reserve personnel centers.
Graham H. Turbiville Jr. is the FMSO director. He received a B.A. from Southern Illinois University, an M.A. from George Washington University and a Ph.D. from the University of Montana. He formerly served as chief of the Soviet/Warsaw Pact Strategic Operations Branch, Defense Intelligence Agency, Washington, D.C. He is the author of Global Dimensions of High-Intensity Crime and Low-Intensity Conflict. He has been a frequent contributor to Military Review, and his most recent article, "US-Mexican Border Security: Civil-Military Cooperation" appeared in the July-August edition of Military Review.
Lieutenant Colonel Karl E. Prinslow is the Africa analyst with the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO), Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. He received a B.S. from the US Military Academy and an M.A. from the Naval Postgraduate School and is a graduate of the US Army Command and General Staff College. He has held a variety of command and staff positions in the Continental United States and Africa, including Security Assistance Programs officer, Kenya-US Liaison Office, Kenya; Reserve Component support director, 1st Infantry Division (Mechanized) (1st ID[M]), Fort Riley, Kansas; S3, 2d Brigade, 1st ID(M); S3, 2d Battalion, 16th Infantry Regiment, 1st ID(M); and G3 operations officer, 1st ID(M). His article "Building Military Relations in Africa" appeared in the May-June 1997 edition of Military Review.
Lieutenant Colonel Robert E. Waller, US Army, Retired, is the program manager for the World Basic Information Library project and a consultant to the Foreign Broadcast Information Service's Community Open Source Program. He received a B.A. from Tennessee Technological University and an M.A. from Georgetown University. His military assignments included command and intelligence staff assignments in Berlin, Panama, Washington D.C., Germany and Fort Hood, Texas. He also served as a Military Observer with the United Nations Transitional Authority for Cambodia.