News 1998 Army Science and Technology Master Plan



A. STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

1. Background

The Department of Defense (DoD) must operate and plan for a future characterized by rapid proliferation of technological threats, uncertainty in the world order, and strong domestic pressures for significant reductions in defense spending. Deep cuts in defense spending will almost certainly continue, not only for the United States, but for our allies also. The Army faces the daunting challenge of maintaining and modernizing forces that will ensure the dominance and security of U.S. ground forces in this environment. We will rely more heavily on cooperative action with our allies to meet this challenge. International armaments cooperation—consistent with the Army’s technology leveraging strategy as described in Volume I, Chapter VII, "Technology Transfer"—has become an increasingly important part of our national strategy.

2. Vision

International military–industrial partnerships contribute to the warfighting capabilities of our soldiers and our allies by maintaining truly world–class technology and industrial bases built on a global–minded workforce and the best available industrial capabilities and services. As shown in Figure E–1, our International Armaments Cooperative Strategy (IACS) is a comprehensive effort to focus our diverse goals to:

Maintain a global awareness of the best technological developments and to develop leveraging strategies while considering the potential contributions of industry, universities, other government agencies, and international sources.

Arrange data and personnel exchanges and participate in international forums to optimize the benefit to the U.S. Army.

Develop and represent in the Army Science and Technology Master Plan (ASTMP), senior–level guidance based on well–thought out leveraging strategies.

Figure E-1. The International Armaments Cooperative Strategy Focus

3. Role of Annex E in International Programs

Effective international cooperation demands both the development of sound long–term partnerships and the ability to respond opportunistically when the occasion arises. Annex E is designed to accomplish both these objectives. First, this annex provides insights into the broad capabilities of other countries that can be used to allocate resources to develop and cultivate cooperative programs with partners that are most likely to provide reliable long–term benefits. At the same time, identification of specific niches of excellence provides a basis for responding quickly to targets of opportunity.

As discussed in Volume I, Chapter VII, identification of an opportunity for partnering in this annex to the ASTMP establishes the existence of an acceptable technological quid pro quo. Within the guidelines of identified subtechnologies and countries, this annex provides an authoritative basis for initiation of international agreements, as shown in Figure E–2. However, the proponent organization must make the final determination that appropriate quid pro quo exists for concluding cooperative agreements. This annex offers a snapshot in time, and new and rapidly emerging development may not be reflected. As this document is publicly released, sensitive or classified information is not included. However, the annex includes global technology leveraging opportunities that are updated annually.

Figure E-2. Role of Annex E in International Programs

The Army Plan is the Army’s capstone strategy planning document. This annex plays a supporting role in several of the Army Plan’s mission areas. As a planning and reference tool, this annex provides senior Army management with a roadmap for initiating discussions with partnering countries on technology cooperation.

4. Country Capabilities and Trends Analysis

Understanding trends is key to an effective strategy, but technology is advancing rapidly, and some opportunities may be time sensitive. This annex contains a broad–based global technology and trends analysis by the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) and from within the Army’s technology base. The criteria for determining county capabilities and associated trends were as follows:

Comparative demonstrated technical performance—Countries were examined for materials, components, or systems produced indigenously, relative to best U.S. practice.

Indicators of recognized quality—Does the country have significant market share in products based on this technology area and is it cited by others as authoritative?

Strength and balance of supporting infrastructure—The number of research and development (R&D) organizations, diversity of participation (industry, academia, government) and the level of investment were considered.

Expert consensus—U.S. Army subject matter experts made the final call in their areas of expertise.

Leadership in applied technology with identified military relevance is shared among relatively few countries—the United States and its NATO allies France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (U.K.); Japan, and to a lesser extent, the former Soviet Union (FSU) states of Russia and the Ukraine. Two other countries (Israel and Canada) are identified as having significant capabilities. As noted in Volume I, Chapter VII, the trend is toward the development of more advanced capabilities in a growing number of countries.

We can obtain a rough measure of how widespread technological capability is by looking at the number of countries identified as having a significant capability in the subareas of technology and research (identified in Volume I, Chapters IV and V). As a point of reference, the technology and research areas listed in Tables E–1 and E–2 have been cross–referenced to the areas in the Defense Technology Area Plan (DTAP) and the Basic Research Plan (BRP), respectively.

Table E–1.  Summary of Technology Leveraging Opportunities

ASTMP TECHNOLOGY AREAS

Number of Subareas

Subareas With One or More Countries on Par

Subareas With One or More Countries at Leading Edge

Subareas With Three or More Countries at Leading Edge

DTAP TECHNOLOGY AREAS

Aerospace Power & Propulsion

3

3

2

0

Air Platforms
Air Vehicles

4

4

2

1

 
Chemical and Biological Defense

7

7

3

1

Chemical/Biological Defense & Nuclear
Individual Survivability & Sustainability

2

2

2

1

Human Systems
Command, Control, & Communications

3

3

3

3

Information Systems Technology
Computing & Software

5

5

1

0

 
Conventional Weapons

6

6

1

0

Weapons
Electron Devices

4

4

4

3

Sensors, Electronics & Battlespace Environment
Electronic Warfare/Directed Energy Weapons

2

2

0

0

Weapons
Civil Engineering & Environmental Quality

2

2

2

1

Materials/Processes
Battlespace Environments

5

5

2

0

Sensors, Electronics & Battlespace Environment
Human Systems Interface

4

4

4

2

Human Systems
Personnel Performance & Training

2

2

2

1

 
Materials, Processes, & Structures

3

3

2

0

Materials/Processes
Medical & Biomedical Science & Technology

4

4

2

0

Biomedical
Sensors

5

5

2

0

Sensors, Electronics & Battlespace Environment
Ground Vehicles

5

5

4

1

Ground & Sea Vehicles
Manufacturing Science & Technology

2

2

2

0

Materials/Processes
Modeling & Simulation

4

4

4

4

Information Systems Technology

 

Table E–2.  Summary of Basic Research Opportunities

ASTMP TECHNOLOGY AREAS

Number of Subareas

Subareas With One or More Countries on Par

Subareas With One or More Countries at Leading Edge

Subareas With Three or More Countries at Leading Edge

BRP TECHNOLOGY AREAS

Mathematical Sciences

5

4

3

1

Mathematics
Computer & Information Sciences

5

5

2

1

Computer Science
Physics

5

4

4

2

Physics
Chemistry

10

10

6

3

Chemistry
Materials Science

5

5

5

5

Materials Science
Electronics Research

5

5

4

2

Electronics
Mechanical Sciences

3

3

3

3

Mechanics
Atmospheric Sciences

2

2

1

0

Terrestrial Sciences; Atmospheric & Space Sciences
Terrestrial Sciences

2

2

1

0

Atmospheric & Space Sciences; Terrestrial Sciences
Medical Research

4

4

4

4

Biological Sciences
Biological Sciences

5

5

5

5

 
Behavioral, Cognitive, & Neural Sciences

4

4

4

3

Cognitive & Neural Science

Table E–1 provides a summary of the number of technology subareas of interest where other countries are assessed to be on a par with the U.S. or at the leading edge of technology and capable of offering technology leveraging opportunities. At least one country was found to be on a par with the U.S. in all 72 subareas of technology identified in the Chapter IV roadmaps. Of these there were 44 subareas in which other countries were working at a level that could be considered as driving the state of the art, and 18 in which such capabilities are shared by three or more countries.

Table E–2 provides a similar summary for the subareas of basic research identified in Chapter V. The capabilities in basic research are indicators of future technological capabilities, and point to areas where the Army might seek to develop long–term cooperative relationships. There was at least one country assessed to be on a par with the U.S. in all but two of the 53 basic research subareas—discrete mathematics (such as computational fluid dynamics) where the U.S. has a lead based on a combination of historical access to superior computing capabilities, and in the area of image enhancement and analysis in physics. Even in these subareas, a number of countries are identified as having niche capabilities and having the potential to drive the state of the art in the future. Of the 53 subareas, there were 42 in which at least one country was assessed to be at the state of the art, and 29 subareas where three or more share a leading role.

The number and geographic distribution of countries having significant scientific and technological capabilities is large and can be expected to increase. In the global economy, reliable sources of electronics, computers, many types of sensors, and new materials are becoming more widely available as advances spread rapidly throughout global markets. Computers and electronics are simply commodities, basic tools for studying the scientific areas that these countries have chosen—the life sciences, biology, chemistry, and behavioral and medical sciences.

Tables E–3 and E–4, provide more detailed breakouts of specific technology and basic research areas wherein other countries are identified as having particularly strong capabilities. The capabilities highlighted correlate generally to the areas where countries are shown in the individual subsection tables as having world–class capabilities, and a level of activity that is expected to enhance or at least maintain their relative position.

5. The Future

While scientific and technological capabilities are important determiners of future capabilities, there are global economic forces at work that will also play an important role. These forces will inevitably change the distribution of wealth, and with that shift, the future potential for technological and scientific leadership. The dominance of the United States as the largest economy and market in the world is changing. There is an evolution towards at least three major economies and markets—Europe, Asia–Pacific, and North America. Each of these will have its leaders and as each market develops, other countries will emerge with increasing economic and technological strength.

Europe is currently dominated by the Western European nations, but Eastern Europe will play an increasingly important economic role. In the Asian–Pacific arena, Japan, and to a lesser extent, Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, currently hold sway, but already India and China are showing signs of great growth potential and no one doubts that they will soon be major players. In North and South America, the United States and to some extent Canada have been dominant. This situation is not likely to change soon, but eventually Mexico and Brazil will probably become more important players. These future shifts will have dramatic consequences that will help influence the future technological leadership of the world.

Table E–3.  Highlighted Near/Mid–Term Opportunities

Technology

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Japan

Asia/Pacific Rim

FSU

Other Countries

Aerospace Propulsion & Power Gas turbine engine

High–performance transmission

High–temperature structures & lubricants

Rotorcraft propulsion

Bearingless rotor hub

High–temperature gas turbines & lubricants

Rotorcraft propulsion

Bearingless rotor hub

Composite & high–strength alloy shafting

     

 

 

 

Air Vehicles Rotorcraft design

Active harmonic control

Composites

Smart structures

FADEC

Rotor systems

Rotorcraft CFD

Adaptive controls

Fly–by–light

Crash survivability

C–C matrix ceramic

Smart structures

Subsystems

Rotorcraft

Control theory

Smart structures

Fatigue

Advanced cockpit systems

Ceramics

Composite materials & structures

  Russia

Rotorcraft structures

Titanium alloy & steel structures

 
Chemical and Biological Defense Propagation & EMP effects

All aspects

Chemical agent point sensors

Individual protection

Vehicle systems

DIS

Propagation & EMP effects

Blast & thermal

CBW agent sensors

Individual protection

Vehicle systems

Electronic decon

DIS

Propagation & EMP effects

Radiation, blast, & thermal protection

Detection systems

Individual & collective protection

Decon

Detection systems

Collective protection

Decon

  Russia

EMP effects

EME survivability

BW detection sensors

Individual & collective protection

Canada

Detection systems

Israel

Individual & collective protection

Individual Survivability & Sustainability Soldier systems (physiological & psychological) Soldier systems (ballistic protection) Soldier systems Electric power for man–portable systems AU

Soldier systems (microclimate control)

  Canada

Soldier systems

Command, Control, & Communications Battlefield interoperability

Natural language processing

Intelligent systems

Mission planning

Battlefield interoperability

Distributed real–time communications

Switching systems

Machine translation

C2 simulation

Mission planning

Communication networks

Battlefield & international interoperability

Machine translation

Natural language processing

Fuzzy logic

High–speed communications

High–speed switching & networks

    Netherlands

Natural language processing

Knowledge base & database science

Computing & Software MPP

Optical switching

Visually–coupled systems

Optical processing

Tactical fiber–optic systems

Visually–coupled systems

MPP

ANNs

Fiber–optic systems

MPP & neural network software

AI

Visually–coupled systems

ANNs

Optical switching & networks

Visually–coupled interfaces

    Canada

Optical switching & networks

Visually–coupled systems

Large dataset representation

Conventional Weapons Overall strength

ETC gun

Overall strength Overall strength

ETC gun

Vehicle integration

    Russia

Overall strength

Israel

ETC gun

BMD missile

Italy

Mines/countermines

Electron Devices   IR FPAs

MMIC components

Compound semiconductors

Batteries

MMIC components

Compound semiconductors

Small engines

All aspects

MMIC

Acoustic wave devices

Compound semiconductors

  Russia

Molecular electronics

Power switching

Rechargeable batteries

 
Electronic Warfare/Directed Energy Weapons LELs Laser materials Laser materials HELs & LELs   Russia, Ukraine

HPMs

Russia

HELs

 
Civil Engineering & Environmental Quality Environmental protection

Bioremediation

Regulatory compliance

Lightweight bridging

Response of conventional structures to blast

Environmental protection

Bioremediation

Demil of energetic materials

High–performance construction materials

Survivable structures

Environmental protection

Bioremediation

Response of hardened structures to conventional weapons

Environmental protection

Bioremediation

    Nordic Group

Environmental protection

Bioremediation

Battlespace Environments Overall capability Overall capability

Remote sensors

IR FPAs

Overall capability Remote sensing

Robotics

  Russia

Weather prediction

Israel

Atmospheric effects

Canada

3D data display

Atmospheric dispersion

Human Systems Interface VRIs

Soldier–system interface

HPM

Performance models

Displays

Soldier–system interface

Ergonomics

Performance models

Soldier–system interface

HPM

Performance models

Displays

VR

Robotics

 

 

 

  Canada

VR displays

Personnel Performance & Training Good overall capabilities

Dynamic training & simulation

Good overall capabilities

Dynamic training & simulation

Good overall capabilities   Australia,
New Zealand

Participate in TTCP

  Canada

Simulation & displays

Belgium

Computer–based selection tests

Materials, Processes, & Structures Metal alloys

Composites

Welding & joining

Lightweight engineering structures

Smart structures

Metal alloys

Composites

C–C ceramic part fabrication

Smart structures

Energy–absorbing structures

Metal alloys

Composites

Functional gradient coatings

Engineering structures

Smart structures

Ceramics

Composites

Polymer processing

Lightweight structures

     
Medical & Biomedical
Science & Technology
Infectious diseases

CBD

Operational medicine

Combat casualty care

Infectious diseases

CBD

Operational medicine

Combat casualty care

Infectious diseases

CBD

Operational medicine

Combat casualty care

Medical imaging

Infectious diseases

Singapore, China

Infectious diseases

   
Sensors Seismic sensors

Acoustic sensors

Signal processing

Vehicle integration

Combat ID

IR FPAs

Laser sensors

Multidomain sensors

Signal processing

Multisensor integration

Combat ID

Combat ID

Signal processing

Vehicle integration

Electronic components

Photonic devices

Laser applications

    Israel

Acoustic sensors

Target recognition

Signal processing

Ground Vehicles Good overall capabilities

Gas turbines

Good overall capabilities

Secondary batteries

Multisensor integration

Good overall capabilities

Structural design

Vehicle survivability

Autonomous control

Diesel engines

Integrated electronics

Ceramic engines

Electric drive

  Russia

Electric drive

Batteries

Switches

Israel

RPVs

Teleoperation

Austria

Diesel engines

Switzerland

Armored vehicles

Italy, Sweden, Switzerland

Vehicle chassis & turret

Manufacturing Science & Technology Bioprocess engineering

CASE tools

Industrial robotics

Bioprocess engineering

CASE tools

Industrial robotics

Bioprocess engineering

CASE tools

Industrial robotics

Fuzzy logic

Bioprocess engineering

Industrial robotics

    Israel,
Nordic Group, Netherlands

Bioprocess engineering

Modeling & Simulation DIS

Dynamic training simulation

M&S

VR

DIS

Dynamic training simulation

M&S

VRI

DIS

Battle M&S

M&S

Simulation interfaces

VR

Distributed industrial enterprises

Australia,
New Zealand

DIS

  Canada

VR 3D visualization

Note: The lack of an entry does not necessarily indicate the absence of cooperative opportunities. In some cases, work by a single researcher in a foreign university may prove important.

Table E–4.  Highlighted Long–Term Opportunities

Technology

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Japan

Asia/Pacific Rim

FSU

Other Countries

Mathematical Sciences Fluid dynamics

Linear algebra

Levy processes

Dynamic systems

Boltzman’s equations

Control theory

Computer vision

Finite elements

Nonsmooth optimization

Finite elements

Interactive methods

General capabilities China

General Capabilities

India

Computational Mathematics
Statistics

Russia

Numerical methods

Canada

Analytic geometry

Israel

Computational physics

Computer & Information Sciences Database sciences

Natural language processing

Natural language processing Natural language processing Software prototyping     Netherlands,
Sweden
Physics Optical switching

Sensors

Signature reduction

Lasers

Optical switching

Sensors

Signature reduction

Lasers

Submicron research

Optical switching

Sensors

Submicron research

Optical switching

Sensors

Fiber–optic gyros

Lasers

  Russia

Glonass

Optical sensors

NLOs

Canada, Sweden, Israel
Chemistry Polymer composites

Surface resistance to wear & corrosion

CBD

Soldier power

Demil, restoration, & pollution prevention

CBD

Soldier power

Polymer composites

Surface resistance to wear & corrosion

CBD

Soldier power

Explosives/propellants

Polymer composites

Surface resistance to wear & corrosion

Explosives/propellants

CBD

South Korea
China

Surface resistance

  Israel, Sweden, Netherlands,
Finland

CBD

Israel, Sweden, Canada

Explosives/propellants

Materials Science Welding & joining

Armor/antiarmor

Coatings

Ion implant

CMCs

Armor

Ceramics

Coatings

Composites

Superconductors

Coatings

South Korea

Tungsten alloy penetrators

Russia

Armor/antiarmor

Superalloys

Ukraine

Welding & joining

Israel

Armor

Personnel armor

Diamond deposition

Electronics Research JESSI/MEDEA research

C3

Networking

Switching

JESSI/MEDEA research

Battlefield communications

JESSI/MEDEA research

Networking

Switching

Solid–state devices

Networking

Switching

MMIC

Low–power devices

     
Mechanical Sciences Smart/active structures

Fluid dynamics

Gas turbine engines

Solid/liquid gun

Smart/active structures

Fluid dynamics

Gas turbine engines

Solid gun

Smart/active structures

Reciprocating engines

Solid gun

Smart/active structures

Fluid dynamics

Reciprocating engines

  Russia, Ukraine

Naval gun propulsion

Experimental/ theoretical fluid dynamics

Italy

Smart/active structures

Canada

Fluid dynamics

Solid gun

Gas turbines

Atmospheric Sciences Atmospheric backscatter

Global & regional weather prediction

Cold weather prediction

Low–level weather prediction

Atmospheric electricity–aircraft interactions

IR physics of the atmosphere

Low–level weather prediction

Atmospheric environmental prediction

Low–level weather prediction

Ionosphere & troposphere interactions

Tropical cyclones

Urban pollution

  Russia

Solar flare prediction

Atmosphere spectral transmissivity

Low–level weather prediction

Canada

Ice flow & weather prediction

Atmospheric dispersion

Denmark

Polar cap & aerial ionosphere interactions

Netherlands

IR celestial background

Brazil

Weather & ionosphere experiments

Israel

LIDAR measurements

Terrestrial Sciences Retrofit material systems

Hydrology

Geotechnical materials

Hydrology

Structural response Basic research     Israel

Stochastic hydrology

Canada

Hydrolgeology

Australia

Basic research

Medical Research Infectious diseases

Combat casualty care

Operational medicine

Biological defense

Infectious diseases

Combat casualty care

Operational medicine

Biological defense

Infectious diseases

Combat casualty care

Operational medicine

Biological defense

Infectious diseases

Combat casualty care

Operational medicine

Biological defense

China

Infectious diseases

Combat casualty care

Russia

Combat casualty care

Biological defense

Switzerland, Israel, Sweden, Netherlands

Infectious diseases

Combat casualty care

Operational medicine

Biological defense

Biological Sciences Combinatorial chemistry

Genome project

Receptor characterization

NMR

Microbial products for nutrition

Bioremediation

Nutritional additives

Protein stabilizers

PHB plasticizer

Energy transduction

Biomaterials for tensile strength

Genome project

Receptor characterization

Nutrient additives

Bioremediation

Stress resistance

Protein stabilizers

Energy transduction

Biomaterials for tensile strength

Combinatorial chemistry

Genome project

Nutrient additives

Bioremediation

Protein stabilizers

Energy transduction

Biomaterials for tensile strength

Genome project

Receptor characterization

NMR

Visual sensing

Metabolic products

Bioremediation

Protein stabilizers

Biomaterials for tensile strength

Australia

Wide range of entries

  Israel,
Netherlands, Switzerland

Wide range of entries

Behavioral, Cognitive, & Neural Sciences Cognitive/noncognitive

Perceptual processes

Cognitive/noncognitive

Perceptual processes

Cognitive/noncognitive

Perceptual processes

Cognitive/noncognitive

 

 

    Netherlands

Perceptual processes

Israel, Sweden

Cognitive/noncognitive

Perceptual processes

Leadership

Note: The lack of an entry does not necessarily indicate the absence of cooperative opportunities. In some cases, work by a single researcher in a foreign university may prove important.

For the near term, the U.S. and our traditional allies will probably maintain a commanding dominance in the physical sciences and in electronics and computers (as we currently know them), and will perpetuate a worldwide abundance of devices, systems, and instruments, including sophisticated weapons. In other areas, however, an increasing number of countries will have world–class capabilities. In areas that do not require a large infrastructure investment, or a high level of education, many other countries can contribute effectively in the global market. Software, for instance, is an area in which good mathematical skills and education are the primary ingredients, especially since inexpensive, powerful computers are becoming so widely available. The life sciences, biology, chemistry, medicine, and behavioral science are other areas in which many countries have the requisite skills to compete effectively.

This document provides the necessary basis for building a strategic approach to international technological cooperation. With the growing emphasis on coalition warfare, it is important not only to leverage global technology, but to keep the channels of communication open and viable. Given the widespread and increasing opportunities for technology leveraging, coupled with the decreasing resources, it is important that the Army’s approach to cooperation be both focused and productive.

6. Technology Assessments

Sections B and C contain specific technology assessments based on previously mentioned criteria. The numbers in the summary charts in this sections reflect a general assessment of country capabilities and their rate of advance relative to the field at large, as follows:

1s.gif (931 bytes) The country is considered to have world–class capabilities in one or more key aspects of the subtechnology identified. Based on current and projected levels of research and expenditures, the level is likely to continue to define or remain near the global state of the art.

2s.gif (968 bytes) The country is considered to have world–class capabilities in one or more key aspects of the subtechnology identified. Based on current and projected levels of research and expenditures, the level will no longer define the state of the art, although it should remain near world–class capabilities.

3s.gif (977 bytes) The country presently has world–class capabilities; however, current research activities are unlikely to keep them at this level.

4s.gif (949 bytes) The country is not yet considered to have world–class capability in this field. However, the country has promising capabilities or an accelerated, coordinated R&D effort under way in selected areas of technology that could contribute to making it among the world leaders or enable it to help define the global state of the art in the future.

5s.gif (958 bytes) The country has capabilities in selected areas that are not considered world–class, nor is the country likely to achieve that level in the near future. The capabilities still could contribute beneficially to U.S. Army R&D activities.

6s.gif (990 bytes) The country has capabilities that could contribute in the short term to U.S. Army R&D requirements, but are likely to be overcome or rendered irrelevant by future advances elsewhere.

To implement our international cooperative strategy effectively, we must be prepared to take advantage of existing capabilities and exchange mechanisms to access cutting–edge research and technology in other countries. At the same time, we need to improve our awareness of new opportunities and significant global technology trends. With the spread of the Internet and other modern communications links, there is unprecedented access to global data. The continuing evolution of new tools needed to collect, evaluate, and synthesize these data will continue to enhance the dynamic nature of global technology assessments.

Click here to go to next page of document