CHAPTER 5

PERSONNEL/CSS ESTIMATES

Section I. Introduction
Section II. Format and Instructions for the Personnel Estimate
Section III. Format and Instructions for the CSS estimate
Section IV. Mission Analysis Considerations

Section I. Introduction

The personnel/CSS estimate is a logical and systematic process staff officers use to analyze the influence CSS factors have on a contemplated course of action (COA). This chapter is designed to assist logistic staff planners in preparing a personnel/CSS logistic estimate.

The estimates are as thorough as time permits. At division level, estimates are not normally written. At echelons above division, the estimate is written and follows the format outlined on the following pages. Personnel/CSS staff officers coordinate with other staff officers when preparing their estimates. They may incorporate material from other staff estimates, but they are still responsible for the validity of all data included in their estimate.

Personnel/CSS estimates are kept current. As factors that influence operations change, new facts are developed and assumptions become facts or become invalid. The estimates are an integral part of any commander's decisionmaking process. The following personnel/CSS estimates contain guidance and information for completing the estimate process.

Section II. Format and Instructions for the Personnel Estimate

_____________
(Classification)

                                                                          Headquarters


Place
Date, time, and zone
Msg ref no.

PERSONNEL (PERS) ESTIMATE NO _____

References: Maps, charts, or other documents.

Time Zone Used Throughout the Estimate:

 1.   MISSION

     This paragraph lists the command's restated mission.

2.   THE SITUATION AND CONSIDERATIONS

     a. Intelligence Situation. This paragraph contains information from the intelligence

officer.  As the personnel officer, include a brief summary when the details are appropriate

and there is a written estimate. Refer to the appropriate intelligence document or use an

annex of the estimate.  Include--

          (1) Characteristics of the area of operations.

(2) Enemy strength and dispositions.
(3) Enemy capabilities. Include enemy and nonenemy-sponsored terrorist activities--

               (a) Affecting the mission.


(b) Affecting personnel activities.

b. Tactical Situation. Information for this paragraph comes from the commander's planning guidance and from the G3 (S3). Include--

(1) Present dispositions of major tactical elements.

(2) Possible courses of action. List all given COAs.

NOTE: You will use these COAs throughout this estimate.

(3) Projected operations, if known. List projected operations and other planning factors required for coordinating and integrating staff estimates.

c. Combat Service Support Situation. To list the CSS situation--

(1) Present dispositions of CSS units and installations that affect the personnel situation.

(2) Show any projected developments within the CSS field that might influence personnel operations.

d. Civil-Military Operations Situation. Information for this subparagraph comes from the CMO officer. Such information should help you--

(1) Present dispositions of civil affairs units and installations that affect the personnel situation.

(2) Show any projected developments within the CMO field that might influence personnel operations.

e. Troop Preparedness Situation. Show the status in this subparagraph under the appropriate subheadings. At higher levels of command, detail information in a summary with a reference to an annex to the estimate. Subparagraphs include--

(1) Unit strength. Indicate authorized, assigned, and attached strengths. Include the effects of deployability, losses (combat or noncombat), critical MOS and skill shortages, projections (gains and losses), and any local situations affecting strength; for example, restrictions on the number of soldiers allowed in an area by treaty.

(2) Other personnel. Indicate personnel, other than unit soldiers, whose presence affects the unit mission. Include EPWs, augmentees (non-US forces), civilian internees and detainees, DA civilians, and others, depending on local circumstances.

(3) Soldier personal readiness. Indicate those elements of quality of life and personnel administration and management that provide services, facilities, and policies affecting soldier personal readiness.

(a) Soldier services. In this paragraph, include--

--Administrative services (pay, orders, evaluation reports, decorations and awards, reenlistment, eliminations, separations, promotions, assignments, transfers, personal affairs, leaves and passes).
--Health services (field medical support, disease, mental health, and other services).
--Health care (medical, dental, entitlements, eligibility, and physical fitness).
--Support services (transportation, commissary, PX, clothing, laundry, legal, spiritual, law and order, and so forth).
--Personnel development (education and professional development).
--Community relations.
--Morale support activities (Army community services, libraries, community centers, clubs, movies, and post office).
--Family member assistance planning.

(b) Duty conditions. Include--

--Work facilities (location and quality).
--Work requirements (impact of frequency and length of field duty and rotation between remote and nonremote duty locations).
--Equipment (adequacy).

(c) Other.

(4) Human potential. Indicate factors affecting the stability and human potential of individual soldiers, teams, and crews to accomplish the mission. Consider, but do not limit yourself to, such factors as turbulence and turnover, experience, personal problems, individual stress, status of crews, and MOS mismatch within the unit.

(5) Organizational climate. Indicate factors affecting personnel readiness. Include--

(a) Communications effectiveness within the chain of command.
(b) Performance and discipline standards.
(c) Incentives.
(d) Drug and alcohol abuse standards.
(e) Counseling.
(f) Human relations.
(g) Supervision.
(h) Planning.
(i) Ethics.

(j) Organizational stress.
(k) Other.

(6) Commitment. Indicate the relative strength of the soldier's identification and involvement with the unit. Also note his--

(a) Morale.
(b) Motivations.
(c) Confidence.
(d) Trust.

(7) Cohesion. Indicate factors that unite and commit soldiers to accomplish the mission such as--

(a) Esprit.
(b) Teamwork.

f. Assumptions. Until specific planning guidance from the commander becomes available, you may need assumptions for initiating planning or preparing the estimate. Modify assumptions as factual data becomes available.

3. ANALYSIS OF COURSES OF ACTION

For each COA, analyze personnel factors affecting each subheading in paragraph 2e indicating problem areas, trends, and deficiencies that might affect troop preparedness.

4. COMPARISON OF COURSES OF ACTION

a. Evaluate deficiencies from a personnel standpoint. List advantages and disadvantages, if any, to accomplishing the mission.

b. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each COA under consideration. Include methods of overcoming deficiencies or modifications required in each COA.

5. CONCLUSION

a. Indicate whether you have personnel to support the mission (in paragraph 1).

b. Indicate which COAs you can best support from the personnel viewpoint.

c. List major personnel deficiencies the commander must consider. Include specific recommendations con-cerning methods of eliminating or reducing the effect of these deficiencies.

/s/________________
(Personnel Officer--G1 (S1)

ANNEXES: (as required)

____________
(Classification)

Section III. Format and Instructions for the CSS Estimate

____________
(Classification)


                                                                    Headquarters


Place
Date, time, and zone
Msg ref no.

COMBAT SERVICE SUPPORT (CSS) ESTIMATE NO _____

References: Maps, charts, or other documents.

Time Zone Used Throughout the Estimate:

1. MISSION

This paragraph lists the command's restated mission.

2. THE SITUATION AND CONSIDERATIONS

a. Intelligence Situation. This paragraph contains information from the intelligence officer. As the CSS officer, you should include a brief summary when the details are appropriate and there is a written estimate. Refer to the appropriate document or use an annex of the estimate. Address the following areas:

(1) Characteristics of the area of operations. Describe the general characteristics of the area of oper-ations. Emphasize any specific aspects that might affect the CSS effort.

(2) Enemy strength and dispositions.

(3) Enemy capabilities. Include--

(a) Any activities affecting the mission. Keep information general, but include both enemy and nonenemy-sponsored terrorist activities.

(b) Any activities affecting CSS activities. Give detailed information oriented toward possible effects on logistic operations. Include what you know about enemy air assault and airborne capabilities, TACAIR, artillery, NBC capabilities, guerrilla operations, and stay-behind or by-passed enemy forces.

b. Tactical Situation. Information from this paragraph comes from the commander's planning guidance and from the operations officer. Subparagraphs should be general and concise statements of tactical intentions. The CSS officer should include--

(1) Present dispositions of major tactical elements. (Also put this information on the CSS overlay annex, if appropriate.)

(2) Possible courses of action. List all given COAs. (These COAs are carried forward through the remainder of the estimate.)

(3) Projected operations. If known, list projected operations and other planning factors needed for coordinating and integrating staff estimates.

c. Personnel Situation. Include information you obtain from the personnel officer. Include total strength; strengths of units; and factors for casualties, replacements, hospital returnees, and so forth.

(1) Present dispositions of personnel and administration units and installations that would affect the CSS situation.

(2) Show any projected developments within the personnel field likely to influence CSS operations.

d. Civil-Military Situation. This paragraph details information from the civil-military officer. The CSS officer should include--

(1) Present dispositions of CMO units and installations affecting logistic operations.

(2) Projected developments within the CMO field likely to iqSHH3Iɽ]ihat the CSS concept is intended to support the mission.

3. ANALYSIS OF COURSES OF ACTION

Analyze all CSS factors for each subheading (paragraph 2e) for each COA, indicating problems and deficiencies. This paragraph, and any subparagraphs, should contain narrative analysis statements explaining mathematical calculations and applied logic. (Mathematical calculations you perform to assess status of any class of supply, maintenance attrition rates, tonnage lift capacity, and so forth, are solely a means to obtain information for full analysis.) The result of your analysis for subheadings for each COA should provide both CSS and tactical impact.

a. Sufficiency of Area. Determine if the area under control will be adequate for CSS operations. Will it be cleared of enemy units? Will other units be sharing the same area (units passing through one another)? Will boundaries remain unchanged? . . . and so forth.

b. Materiel and Services. Include these subparagraphs, if appropriate:

(1) Maintenance.

(2) Supply.

(3) Services.

(4) Transportation.

(5) Labor.

(6) Facilities.

(7) Contract services.

(8) Other.

4. COMPARISON OF COURSES OF ACTION

a. Evaluate CSS deficiencies. List any advantages and disadvantages to accomplish the mission.

b. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each COA you consider. Include methods of overcoming any deficiencies or modifications each COA requires.

5. CONCLUSIONS

a. Indicate which COA or COAs CSS can best support.

b. List the major CSS deficiencies the commander must consider. Include specific recommendations concerning the methods of eliminating or reducing the effect of these deficiencies.

/s/____________________________
(Combat Service Support Officer--G4 (S4))

ANNEXES: (as required)

Section IV. Mission Analysis Considerations

The following is a methodology for logistics planners as they go through the deliberate decisionmaking process. As part of the process, the five basic questions logistics planners and operators should always be able to answer are--
  • Where are we on the battlefield?
  • Why are we here?
  • How do we support from here?
  • How do we get support from here?
  • When, to where, and in what sequence do we displace to ensure continuous operations?

This methodology is based on the customer and the customer's needs. In short, there are five areas that must be addressed: requirement, capability, shortfall, analysis, and solution model. The shortfall portion will, of course, be ignored, but if there is no shortfall, the rest of the model and the methodology remain valid. This methodology can be used throughout the deliberate decisionmaking process. The level of detail at which each question can be answered is a reflection of the planner's position and organization. The intent is that the major Army command (MACOM) (corps, division, etc.) staff officer tell the support command what the mission is, not how to do it.

Requirements

1. What method is used to determine logistics requirements (for example, personnel density, equipment density, planning factors, OPTEMPO, combination, etc.)?

2. What are the sources of the requirements determination calculations (for example, the Supply Usage Requirements Estimator (SURE), OPLOGPLN, FM 101-10-1/2, the G1/G4 Battle Book, historical data, etc.)?
3. What is your customer list for this requirement?

  • Will it change during the operation?
4. Identify implied logistics tasks based on the tactical plan.
  • What are the ramifications of river crossings, pauses, deep attacks, etc.?
5. Is there an NBC threat?

6. What do you need?

7. How long will you need it?

8. Where do you need it?

9. What do you need to put it there (for example, fuel bladders/bags, rough-terrain container handlers, forklifts, cranes, etc.)?

10. How will you get it there?

11. When do you need it there?

  • How long will it take to get it there?
12. How soon will it be available to move there?
  • Where is it coming from?
  • What do you need to do with it before moving it where you need it? (For example, does it have to be containerized, broken down, segregated, separated, disassembled, configured, or reconfigured before movement?)

--How long will that take?
--What are the requirements for that?

13. Does it have to move again after it gets there? (For example, is it a GS-GS transaction? GS-DS? DS-DS? DS-user?)

  • Who will move it from there?
14. What are the competing demands for this requirement?

15. What is required to offload it when it gets there?

16. Does anything need to be done with it once it gets there? (For example, does it have to be unpacked, assembled, etc.?)

17. What has to be done to move it once it is there?

18. Does this requirement have special employment considerations (for example, require a large, level area of land or a fresh water source; be located near an MSR; need refrigeration; require dedicated transportation; etc.)?

19. How often will the commodity, supply, or service be required?

  • How often must it be replenished?

20. Does the requirement have preparatory activities (for example, engineers to berm a bag farm, airfield matting for FARPs, or road and pad construction for a CSA)?

  • What is the expected duration of the required preparation?
  • How do you request the preparation and who approves it? (For example, engineer work has to be approved through channels.)
  • What support is required for the preparatory activities?
  • Are there options?
Capabilities

1. What available units can fulfill the requirement?

2. What is the basis of allocation for the unit that has the necessary capability? (For example, is its basis of allocation one per corps or division, or is it based on supported populations or expected equipment densities?)

3. Is more than one unit required to provide the capability? [For example, the POL supply company is usually employed with the medium truck company (POL).]

4. What are the overall receipt, storage, and issue requirements for my area of support for this particular commodity, supply, or service?

5. Are receipts and issues exclusive capabilities? (For example, can a unit receive, store, and issue so much of a particular commodity, or can it only receive or store or issue or rewarehouse so much of a particular commodity?)

6. Will this capability be used to weight the battle logistically?

7. What is the total STON/gallon/other distribution capability by mode? Line-haul? Local haul? Other?

What distribution planning factors were used?

8. How many locations require this capability?

9. Are any units with this capability already committed?

10. Are any units with this capability due in? When?

11. Do units depend on other units to function? (For example, to perform their missions, some mode transportation units must bring cargo to a cargo transfer company.)

12. Can a unit deploy elements (sections or platoons) to place the capability where it is required?

13. Does the unit have unique management/employment considerations?

Comparison/Shortfall

1. If there is no shortfall, go to the analysis portion of this methodology.

2. Which requirements exceed capabilities?

3. For requirements that exceed capabilities, is it overall or in a particular area, region, or time?

4. How much is the shortfall in terms of units of measurement (STON, gallons, square feet)?

5. What does the shortfall equate to in terms of DOS?

6. At what point in the battle is the requirement expected to exceed the capability?

7. What is the type of shortfall? Is it a supply availability shortfall, a resource (equipment, MHE, personnel, facilities, man-hours, etc.) shortfall, or a distribution shortfall?

Analysis

The analysis process has to occur for all support operations even if there is no shortfall. The log planner has to determine how to support the operation.

1. What is the earliest the support operation can begin?

2. What is the latest the support operation can begin?

3. Is it better to be early or late?

4. What is the purpose of the support? (For example, is the purpose to build stocks at GS, to sustain a force for a given period of time at DS, or to resupply a user?)

5. Will support be provided from a fixed location or from a forward logistics element?

6. What is the shortfall's significance?

7. What is the shortfall's potential impact?

8. What is the shortfall's expected duration?

9. What caused the shortfall (battle loss, time-phased force deployment sequence, etc.)?

10. If the shortfall is a supply availability shortfall, consider the following:

  • Is the shortfall only at this level or is it at higher levels as well?
  • Is it a result of higher commands' efforts and support priorities?
  • Is the supply available at other echelons and, if so, where?
--How long will it take to get here?
  • Is there an acceptable alternative, a substitute, or an alternative source of supply?
11. If the shortfall is a resource shortfall (equipment, MHE, personnel, facilities, man-hours, etc.), consider the following:
  • Can similar resources be diverted or obtained from somewhere else? (For example, a cargo transfer company can supplement a CSA with lift, given proper supervision and technical assistance.)
  • Is host nation support a viable alternative?
  • How specialized is the shortfall resource? (For example, it is easier to train an MA specialist than it is to train a doctor. It is easier to find an automotive mechanic than it is an M-1 fire control specialist.)
  • Can a secondary MOS be used?
  • Does a sister service or coalition partner have the capability?
12. If the shortfall is a distribution shortfall, consider the following:
  • Is the shortfall due to a lack of assets or to a time-distance problem?
  • Does the shortfall capability require special handling or any special distribution requirements?
  • Are there any alternative distribution modes?
  • What are the alternative mode requirements? (For example, a pipeline requires continuous pump and hose/pipeline maintenance and engineer support to lay the pipeline, etc.)
  • Are host nation distribution assets available?
  • Are sister service/coalition assets available?
--Are they compatible? (For example, European and SWA host nation fuel tankers are metric and require a coupler adapter to interface US tankers or bags.)
  • Are there any airfields, field landing strips, or helipads near the requirement?
13. How will logistics capabilities be echeloned forward?
  • Which units will be tasked to establish forward logistics bases?

Solutions

1. Determine the most workable solutions based on analysis.

2. Integrate with other support operations and commodities.

To put this methodology into context, there must be some continuity between the tactical decisionmaking process and the logistic planning process. Each of the model's categories (requirements, capabilities, shortfalls, analyses, and solutions) must have any associated, necessary, and valid assumptions stated up front.