Index JOINT STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES PLAN
PRAIRIE WARRIOR 2000 - FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY


ENCLOSURE G (3110/01)

INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE

OVERVIEW

 

1. The past few years have seen tremendous change in the world political picture. The rapid collapse of Communism has brought about changes that few would have anticipated only a few years ago. These changes have come so quickly that it has been difficult to predict the effects of evolving away from a bipolar world. While the likelihood of conflict on a global scale has been significantly reduced, the change to a multi-polar world has greatly increased the probability of smaller scale regional conflicts.

2. Without the Soviet Union as a moderating influence on her ex-client states, some nations are less inhibited from pursuing their own ambitions and goals militarily. Drawing US forces down to the base force level may be seen by such nations as providing an opportunity for their own expansionist aims.

3. The world is now much less stable than it was only a few years ago. Many of the governments of lesser-developed nations have only tenuous grasps on power and a worldwide economic recession will make it difficult for them to remain in power. Civil unrest and war is likely within or between a number of nations. Neighboring nations may be drawn in either to aid participants or settle long-standing regional disputes.

4. The PACOM AOR has been a source of continual problems in recent history. It is a region marked by contrasts and political instability. It is the seat of three major religions. It’s economic boom of the past decades has been severely curtailed. These factors will continue to shape the political landscape of the region in the coming years.

5. PACOM centers of instability:

a. North/South Chosun: By far the most significant threat faced by forward deployed U.S. forces, North Chosun’s communist ideology, militaristic regime and burdgeoning economic problems add up to substantial risk of a Major Regional Contingency.

b. Surran: Lying astride the maritime chokepoints and major air routes between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and retaining tremendous oil wealth, Surran is a significant military and economic power. A client of Eastland, Surran retains significant ability for regional power projection. Surran contests oil reserve areas with Pacifica and has, in the past, demonstrated a capacity for armed conflict with Pacifican forces.

c. Pacifica: Potentially an economic powerhouse (based on oil), ethnic conflicts, civil war, and fighting with Surran over oil reserves has weakened this country. Power is contested internally between the Pacifican Government and the Pacifican People’s Front (PPF) and the Surranian People’s Movement (SPM). US intelligence has detected Surranian covert aid to the rebels and preparations for direct intervention into the Pacifican conflict.

 

d. Eastland: Has rapidly emerged as a leader in regional and global affairs since embracing market economic principles in the 1980’s. Eastland possesses the world’s fastest growing economy and the world’s largest military. Eastland has used it growing military and economic power as part of an aggressive foreign policy to expand its influence in the Western Pacific region.

e. Indonesia: The partition of the country following the Manila Agreement, has brought temporary stability to the now-divided country with the New Nationalist Movement (NNM) controlling the northern tier. Low intensity conflict is expected to break again in the near term.

TABLE G-1

PROSPECTS FOR USPACOM NEO 2000 - 2001

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COUNTRY | THREAT LEVEL | COMMENTS

| 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 |

=================================================================

SURRAN 3

PACIFICA 1

EASTLAND 7

NORTH CHOSUN 1

SOUTH CHOSUN 7

INDONESIA 6

SUMUTRA 5

JAPAN 9

 

NOTE: THREAT LEVEL SCALE STARTS WITH 1 AS THE HIGHEST THREAT AND DECREASES TO 9 AS THE LOWEST.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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