Joint Staff Officers Guide AFSC Pub 1 -- 1997

Appendix C Intelligence Estimate

This description is adapted from Joint Pub 5-03.1 (to be published as CJCSM 3122.01).

 

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION

Originating Section, Issuing Headquarters*

Place of Issue

Day, Month, Year, Hour, Zone

INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER ________________**

( ) REFERENCES: a. Maps and charts

b. Other relevant documents

1. ( ) Mission. State the assigned task and its purpose. The mission of the command as a whole is taken from the commander’s mission analysis, planning guidance, or other statement.

2. ( ) Enemy Situation. State conditions that exist and indicate effects of these conditions on enemy capabilities and the assigned mission. This paragraph describes the area of operations, the enemy military situation, and the effect of these two factors on enemy capabilities.

a. ( ) Characteristics of the Area of Operations. Discuss the effect of the physical characteristics of the area of operations on military activities of both combatants. If an analysis of the area has been prepared separately, this paragraph in the intelligence estimate may simply refer to it, then discuss the effects of the existing situation on military operations in the area.

(1) ( ) Military Geography

(a) ( ) Topography

1. ( ) Existing Situation. Describe relief and drainage, vegetation, surface materials, cultural features, and other characteristics in terms of their effect on key terrain, observation, fields of fire, obstacles, cover and concealment, avenues of approach, lines of communication, and landing areas and zones.

2. ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effect of topography on broad enemy capabilities such as attack and defense, describing generally how the topography affects each type of activity. The effect on employment of nuclear and CB weapons; amphibious, airborne, or airlanded forces; surveillance devices and systems; communications equipment and systems; electronic warfare; psychological operations, OPSEC, and military deception; logistics support; and other appropriate considerations should be included.

3. ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of topography on friendly forces’ military operations (attack, defense, etc.) in the same fashion as for enemy capabilities in the preceding subparagraphs.

(b) ( ) Hydrography

1. ( ) Existing Situation. Describe the nature of the coastline; adjacent islands; location, extent, and capacity of landing beaches and their approaches and exits; nature of the offshore approaches, including type of bottom and gradients; natural obstacles; surf, tide, and current conditions.

2. ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effects of the existing situation on broad enemy capabilities.

3. ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of the existing situation on broad COAs for friendly forces.

(c) ( ) Climate and Weather

1. ( ) Existing Situation. Describe temperature, cloud cover, visibility, precipitation, light data, and other climate and weather conditions and their general effects on roads, rivers, soil trafficability, and observation.

2. ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effects of the existing climate and weather situation on broad enemy capabilities.

3. ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of the existing climate and weather situation on broad COAs for friendly forces.

(2) ( ) Transportation

(a) ( ) Existing Situation. Describe roads, railways, inland waterways, airfields, and other physical characteristics of the transportation system; capabilities of the transportation system in terms of rolling stock, barge capacities, and terminal facilities; and other pertinent data.

(b) ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effects of the existing transportation system and capabilities on broad enemy capabilities.

(c) ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of the existing transportation system and capabilities on broad COAs for friendly forces.

(3) ( ) Telecommunications

(a) ( ) Existing Situation. Describe telecommunications facilities and capabilities in the area.

(b) ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effects of the existing telecommunications situation on broad enemy capabilities.

(c) ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of the existing telecommunications situation on broad COAs for friendly forces.

(4) ( ) Politics

(a) ( ) Existing Situation. Describe the organization and operation of civil government in the area of operation.

(b) ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Consider the effects of the political situation on broad enemy capabilities.

(c) ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Consider the effects of the political situation on broad COAs for friendly forces.

(5) ( ) Economics

(a) ( ) Existing Situation. Describe industry, public works and utilities, finance, banking, currency, commerce, agriculture, trades and professions, labor force, and other related factors.

(b) ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effects of the economic situation on broad enemy capabilities.

(c) ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of the economic situation on broad COAs for friendly forces.

(6) ( ) Sociology

(a) ( ) Existing Situation. Describe language, religion, social institutions and attitudes, minority groups, population distribution, health and sanitation, and other related factors.

(b) ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effects of the sociological situation on broad enemy capabilities.

(c) ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of the sociological situation on broad COAs for friendly forces.

(7) ( ) Science and Technology

(a) ( ) Existing Situation. Describe the level of science and technology in the area of operations.

(b) ( ) Effect on Enemy Capabilities. Discuss the effects of science and technology on broad enemy capabilities.

(c) ( ) Effect on Friendly Courses of Action. Discuss the effects of science and technology on broad COAs for friendly forces.

b. ( ) Enemy Military Situation (Ground, Naval, Air, Other Service)

(1) ( ) Strength. State the number and size of enemy units committed and enemy reinforcements available for use in the area of operations. Ground strength, air power, naval forces, nuclear and CB weapons, electronic warfare, unconventional warfare, surveillance potential, and all other strengths (that might be significant) are considered.

(2) ( ) Composition. Outline the structure of enemy forces (order of battle) and describe unusual organizational features, identity, armament, and weapon systems.

(3) ( ) Location and Disposition. Describe the geographic location of enemy forces in the area, including fire support elements; command and control facilities; air, naval, and missile forces; and bases.

(4) ( ) Availability of Reinforcements. Describe enemy reinforcement capabilities in terms of ground, air, naval, missile, nuclear, and CB forces and weapons; terrain, weather, road and rail nets, transportation, replacements, labor forces, prisoner of war policy; and possible aid from sympathetic or participating neighbors.

(5) ( ) Movements and Activities. Describe the latest known enemy activities in the area.

(6) ( ) Logistics. Describe levels of supply, resupply ability, and capacity of beaches, ports, roads, railways, airfields, and other facilities to support supply and resupply. Consider hospitalization and evacuation, military construction, labor resources, and maintenance of combat equipment.

(7) ( ) Operational Capability to Launch Missiles. Describe the total missile capability that can be brought to bear on forces operating in the area, including characteristics of missile systems, location and capacity of launch or delivery units, initial and sustained launch rates, size and location of stockpiles, and other pertinent factors.

(8) ( ) Serviceability and Operational Rates of Aircraft. Describe the total aircraft inventory by type, performance characteristics of operational aircraft, initial and sustained sortie rates of aircraft by type, and other pertinent factors.

(9) ( ) Operational Capabilities of Combatant Vessels. Describe the number, type, and operational characteristics of ships, boats, and craft in the naval inventory; base location; and capacity for support.

(10) ( ) Technical Characteristics of Equipment. Describe the technical characteristics of major items of equipment in the enemy inventory not already considered (such as missiles, aircraft, and naval vessels).

(11) ( ) Electronics Intelligence. Describe the enemy intelligence-gathering capability using electronic devices.

(12) ( ) Nuclear and CB Weapons. Describe the types and characteristics of nuclear and CB weapons in the enemy inventory, stockpile data, delivery capabilities, nuclear and CB employment policies and techniques, and other pertinent factors.

(13) ( ) Significant Strengths and Weaknesses. Discuss the significant enemy strengths and weaknesses perceived from the facts presented in the preceding subparagraphs.

c. ( ) Enemy Unconventional and Psychological Warfare Situation

(1) ( ) Guerrilla. Describe the enemy capability for, policy with regard to, and current status in the area of guerrilla or insurgent operations.

(2) ( ) Psychological. Describe enemy doctrine, techniques, methods, organization for, and conduct of psychological operations in the area of operations.

(3) ( ) Subversion. Describe enemy doctrine, techniques, methods, organization for, and conduct of subversion in the area of operations.

(4) ( ) Sabotage. Outline enemy organization and potential for and conduct of sabotage in the area of operations.

3. ( ) Enemy Capabilities. List each enemy capability that can affect the accomplishment of the assigned mission. Each enemy capability should contain information on the following: What the enemy forces can do. Where they can do it. When they can start it and get it done. What strength they can devote to the task. In describing enemy capabilities, the J-2 must be able to tell the commander what the enemy can do using its forces in a joint effort. First, of course, the J-2 must assess the enemy’s ground, naval, and air forces. It is customary to enumerate separately the nuclear, CB, and unconventional warfare capacities. Hypothetical examples follow:

a. ( ) Ground Capabilities

(1) ( ) The enemy can attack at any time along our front with an estimated 6 infantry divisions and 2 tank divisions supported by 24 battalions of artillery.

(2) ( ) The enemy can defend now in its present position with 7 infantry divisions supported by 2 tank divisions and 16 battalions of medium and light artillery.

(3) ( ) The enemy can reinforce its attack (or defense) with all or part of the following units in the times and places indicated:

UNIT PLACE TIME

315th Airborne Div Vic RESOGA 8 hrs. after starting time

41st Motorized Vic CARDINAL 6 hrs. after starting time

b. ( ) Air Capabilities

(1) ( ) Starting now, and based on an estimated strength of 300 fighters and 100 medium bomber aircraft, the enemy can attack in the area of operations with 240 fighter sorties per day for the first 2 days, followed by a sustained rate of 150 sorties per day, and 60 bomber sorties per day, for 1 day followed by a sustained rate of 48 sorties per day.

(2) ( ) Using airfields in the vicinity of __________, the enemy has sufficient transport sorties to lift one regiment in a single lift to airfields in the vicinity of _______, _______, and _______ within 4 hours’ flying time.

c. ( ) Naval Capabilities. Starting now, the enemy can conduct sustained sea and air operations in the entire area with 6 DDs, 4 FFs, 1 CV, 7 SSNs, a mine force of 20 craft, and 70 gunboats and smaller craft now on station in the area.

d. ( ) Nuclear Capabilities. The enemy can employ at any time and in any part of the area of operations an estimated 40 to 60 nuclear weapons of yields from 2 to 50 kt delivered by cannon and rocket artillery, guided missile, and aircraft.

e. ( ) CB Capabilities. The enemy can employ the CB agents ______, ______, and _______ in the area of operations at any time delivered by air, cannon, and rocket artillery and by guided missile.

f. ( ) UW Capability. The enemy can conduct UW operations in the area within 10 days after starting the operation using dissident ethnic elements and the political adversaries of the current government.

g. ( ) Joint Capabilities. The enemy can continue to defend in its present position with 6 infantry divisions, supported by 16 artillery battalions, and reinforced by 3 mechanized divisions within 8 hours after starting movement.

Enemy defense also can be supported by 150 fighter sorties daily for a sustained period and by continuous naval surface and air operations employing 6 DDs, 4 FFs, 7 SSNs, and 1 CV.

4. ( ) Analysis of Enemy Capabilities. Analyze each capability in light of the assigned mission, considering all applicable factors from paragraph 2 above, and attempt to determine and give reasons for the relative order probability of adoption by the enemy. Discuss enemy vulnerabilities. In this paragraph, examine the enemy capability by discussing the factors that favor or militate against its adoption by the enemy. When applicable, the analysis of each capability should also include a discussion of enemy vulnerabilities attendant to that capability, e.g., conditions or circumstances of the enemy situation that render the enemy especially liable to damage, deception, or defeat. Finally, the analysis should include a discussion of any indications that point to possible adoption of the capability. For example, the following:

a. ( ) Attack now with forces along the forward edge of the battle area . . . .

(1) ( ) The following factors favor the enemy’s adoption of this capability:

(a) ( ) . . . .

(b) ( ) . . . .

(2) ( ) The following factors militate against the enemy’s adoption of this capability:

(a) ( ) Road and rail nets will not support large-scale troop and supply movements necessary for an attack in the area.

(b) ( ) Terrain in the area does not favor an attack.

(3) ( ) Adoption of this capability will expose the enemy’s west flank to counterattack.

(4) ( ) Except for minor patrol activity in the area, there are no indications of adoption of this capability.

b. ( ) Delay from present positions along the ______ River lie . . . .

(1) ( ) The following factors favor the enemy’s adoption of this capability:

(a) ( ) There are several excellent natural barriers between the river and the mountains.

(b) ( ) The effectiveness of the water barriers will improve, and trafficability on the upland slopes of the terrain barriers will deteriorate with advent of the monsoon.

(2) ( ) The following factors militate against the enemy’s adoption of this capability:

(a) ( ) . . . .

(b) ( ) . . . .

(3) ( ) In the adoption of this capability, the enemy’s lines of communication will be restricted by a limited road and rail net that can easily be interdicted.

(4) ( ) The following facts indicate adoption of this capability:

(a) ( ) Aerial photography indicates some preparation of barriers in successive positions.

(b) ( ) Considerable troop movement and pre-positioning of floating bridge equipment along the water barriers have been detected.

5. ( ) Conclusions. Conclusions resulting from discussion in paragraph 4 above. Include, when possible, a concise statement of the effects of each capability on the accomplishment of the assigned mission. Cite enemy vulnerabilities where applicable. This paragraph contains a summary of enemy capabilities most likely to be adopted, listed in the order of relative probability if sufficient information is available to permit such an estimate. If appropriate, it should also include a concise statement of the effects of each enemy capability on the accomplishment of the assigned mission. Exploitable vulnerabilities should also be listed, where applicable.

a. ( ) Enemy Capabilities in Relative Probability of Adoption

(1) ( ) Defend in present locations with . . . .

(2) ( ) Delay from present positions along . . . .

(3) ( ) Reinforce the defense or delay with . . . .

(4) ( ) Conduct UW operations in the area . . . .

b. ( ) Vulnerabilities

(1) ( ) Enemy left (west) flank is open to envelopment by amphibious assault . . . .

(2) ( ) The enemy’s air search radar coverage is poor in the left (west) portion of its defensive sector . . . .

(Signed)_________________________

J-2

(The staff division chief signs the staff estimates produced by that division. If the estimate is to be distributed outside the headquarters, the heading and signature block must be changed to reflect that fact.)

ANNEXES: (By letter and title) Annexes should be included where the information is in graphs or of such detail and volume that inclusion makes the body of the estimate cumbersome. They should be lettered sequentially as they occur throughout the estimate.

DISTRIBUTION: (According to procedures and policies of the issuing headquarters)