SURVEY DESCRIPTION
MAIN FINDINGS
In March, 1998 public opinion survey on security issues was conducted in the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
This survey was carried out of behalf of NATO Office of Information and Press and The Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania.
In three countries, the survey was co-ordinated by Lithuanian-British public opinion and market research company BALTIC SURVEYS Ltd., member of the Gallup International and Gallup Worldwide.
The methodology employed in this study allowed to collect
the national representative data of Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian permanent
residents, aged 15-74. Interviews were done face-to-face at the respondents
homes.
1.1. Attitudes towards NATO membership. Of all three Baltic countries, Lithuanian population is mostly supportive for the country’s efforts to join NATO: 55% of Lithuanian population, 47% of Latvian population and 54% of Estonian population fully approve or somewhat approve these efforts. Accordingly, in Lithuania 26% of population does not approve such efforts, while in Latvia there is 32% and Estonia – 31% of opponents to such efforts. Almost one out of six Lithuanian residents, one out of five Latvian residents and one out of seven Estonian residents have no opinion on this matter.
1.2. Costs of the membership. In all three countries, the view that the NATO membership is too expensive is supported by more residents than the opposite view. In Lithuania 42%, in Latvia 44% and in Estonia 42% of residents think that the NATO membership is too expensive. However, in Lithuania and in Estonia one out of three (accordingly 30% and 32%) and one out of five (23%) Latvian residents think that the membership is most effective way to ensure security. One should keep in mind, that 34% of Latvian, 28% of Lithuanian and 27% of Estonian residents could not answer this question.
1.3. The best means to guarantee country’s security and stability. Residents of three Baltic countries were asked, which way, in their opinion, guarantees their country’s security and stability the best..
In Lithuania, prevailing opinion is that the NATO membership is the best way (26%). The next options are NATO and EU membership together (23%) or neutrality (23%). Only 3% of Lithuanian population believe that EU membership without NATO membership can guarantee security and stability for Lithuania.
In Latvia, the larger group of population believe that the neutrality best guarantees Latvian security and stability (29%). The second option – NATO and EU membership together (26%) while NATO membership is the third option (15%). 10% of Latvian population believe that EU membership alone can guarantee stability and security for Latvia.
In Estonia, NATO and EU membership together is considered to be the best guarantee (30%), followed by neutrality (29%). NATO membership was chosen by 16% of Estonian residents. 9% of Estonian residents believe that EU membership alone can guarantee security and stability for their country.
1.4. Visegrad countries’ membership in NATO. Of all three Baltic countries, Lithuanian residents are best aware that according to the NATO expansion plan, in summer of 1997, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary were invited to join NATO.
Among Lithuanian public, 58% have heard about this event, 29% - have not.
In Latvia, 53% have heard this and 38% - have not.
In Estonia the level of awareness about this invitation is the lowest – 49% of Estonian residents have heard about this invitation and 42% - have not.
Being best informed about this decision, Lithuanian residents are also most in favour for it. In Lithuania, 53% of the residents are in favour of this decision and 8% express unfavourable view.
In Latvia, only 37% are of favourable opinion about this decision and 11% - are opposing it, while 50% of Latvian residents do not have opinion on this matter.
In Estonia, 41% are in favour and 13% - are not, with 46% of Estonian residents not having any opinion on this decision.
1.5. Reasons for not inviting Baltic countries to join NATO. The perception of the reasons for not inviting Baltic countries to join NATO at the first wave of expansion differs in three Baltic states. Lithuanian people more often think that Russian influence and NATO members unwillingness to accept new members was the main reason, than Latvians and Estonians. In Latvia and Estonia the view that none of the Baltic countries is ready for NATO membership was expressed more often :
1.6. Evaluation of the Government efforts to prepare for the NATO membership.
Of three Baltic countries, Estonian residents are of the highest opinion about their Government’s efforts to join NATO: 44% of Estonian population think that their Government is preparing for the NATO membership active enough while 23% think that these efforts are not active enough and 4% think that in reality the Government is not preparing at all. 30% of Estonian population has no opinion on this issue.
Lithuanian population also evaluates the Government’s efforts in a positive way: 36% of Lithuanian residents think that the Government is active enough, 30% think it is not. Only 2% of Lithuanian residents think that Government is doing nothing. 32% of Lithuanian residents could not answer this question.
Latvian residents are of a negative opinion about their Government’s efforts: while 24% of Latvian residents consider the Government being active enough, as many as 32% think that the Government is not active enough and 5% think that Latvian Government is doing nothing in this direction. In Latvia there was the largest number of people who had no opinion on this issue – 39%.
1.7. Priorities in a preparation to join NATO. Residents of the Baltic countries were asked to rate the priorities of the things to be done while preparing to join NATO.
Lithuanians stress first of all protection of boarders and international image of the country. The second group of the means to be undertaken – strengthening Lithuania’s army in accordance with the NATO standards.
For Latvian population the boarder issues are the first priority, followed by the country’s image. Improvement of the army’s professional level and ethnic issues are important but they come as the second stage of actions.
Estonians first of all stress the unsolved border issues. The second group of necessary actions is improvement of the professional standards of the army.
1.8. Estimation of the NATO membership impact on various spheres. Residents of the Baltic states were asked, whether in their opinion the membership in NATO will have positive or negative influence on various spheres.
In all three countries, majority of the population thinks that the country’s security and country’s army will benefit when the Baltic countries join NATO. In Lithuania, more than half of population also expect the improvement in country’s attractiveness for foreign investors and possibilities to receive financial assistance.
In Estonia, residents believe that the membership would help Estonia’s government to attract more confidence. This is not the opinion of Lithuanian and Latvian residents – they do not think that the membership might have strong influence on this matter.
In all three countries, not much influence from the membership is expected on social welfare. However, all three countries think that the membership in NATO would harm the relations with Russia. Lithuanian and Latvian residents also believe that the membership could have negative impact on relations with Belarus, while Estonia has less relations with this country now, therefore does not expect much changes.
Of all three countries, Lithuanians are most optimistic about the overall positive influence of NATO membership on the country, while Latvians are most sceptical.
1.9. Referendum on NATO. If the national referendum on NATO membership is held at the moment, Lithuanians would be most supportive for the country joining the alliance.
51% of Lithuanian residents would vote for, 25% - against and 24% did not make their decision yet. In Estonia, 43% would vote for while 32% would vote against and 25% do not know. Latvia has the lowest number of the supporters for the country’s membership in alliance: 37% would vote for, 29% - against, while 34% of Latvian population has not decided yet.
1.10. Why people are in favour or against their country’s membership in NATO ?
The main arguments of supporters for Lithuanian membership are related to the security of the country and confidence in NATO as the organization. The main arguments of the opponents are related to the opinion that Lithuania is not ready yet, the costs and believe in neutrality.
The main arguments of supporters for Latvian membership are related to the security of the country and standard of living improvement. The main arguments of the opponents are related to the opinion that the membership would have negative influence on standard of living, that Latvia is not ready yet and problems in the relations with Russia and Belorus.
The main arguments of supporters for Estonian
membership are related to the security of the country and development of
armed forces. The main arguments of the opponents are related to the opinion
that Estonia is not ready yet and that Estonia should stay neutral.
2.
CONFIDENCE IN INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
2.1. Confidence in international institutions. Estonian inhabitants are better informed about various international institutions and organizations than Latvian and Lithuanian inhabitants: in Estonia the larger share of the respondents could express their opinion about these organizations and institutions.
Lithuanian inhabitants are most confident with NATO (53%), UNO (49%) and EU (48%). Almost every second Lithuanian inhabitant have much or somewhat confidence in these international organisations. Lithuanian inhabitants trust least CIS - 47% have little confidence in it or
Latvian inhabitants mostly trust UNO - 66% of them have much or somewhat confidence in this organization. 44% of Latvian inhabitants trust EU and NATO. Latvian inhabitants have least confidence in CIS - 47% of them have not much confidence in CIS or not confidence at all.
Estonian inhabitants most trust UNO - 73% of Estonian inhabitants have much or somewhat confidence in this organization. 61% of Estonian inhabitants have much or somewhat confidence in NATO.
2.2. Awareness and evaluation of US and Baltic Countries’ Charter. The majority of residents of Baltic States have heard about this Charter - 65% of Lithuanian inhabitants, 69% of Latvian inhabitants and 61% of Estonian inhabitants said that they have heard about US and Baltic States’ Charter.
61% of Lithuanian inhabitants and 55% of Estonian inhabitants have very or somewhat favourable opinion about US and Baltic Countries’ Charter. Among Latvian inhabitants 48% have very or somewhat favourable opinion about US and Baltic Countries’ Charter and 45% have no opinion about it. No opinion about this charter was expressed by 36% of Lithuanian inhabitants and 36% of Estonian inhabitants.
The majority of Baltic countries’ inhabitants think that
US and Baltic Countries’ Charter will help Baltic countries to join NATO
sooner. It was said by 54% of residents of Estonia, 49% of residents of
Lithuania and 37% of residents of Latvia. In Latvia as much as 44% of residents
had no opinion on this issue. 35% of Estonian population and 40% of Lithuanian
population had no opinion on this question.
3. INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING MISSIONS AND PROGRAMS
3.1. Participation in the international missions. Residents of three Baltic countries were asked to express their opinion about the participation of the soldiers of their country in joint peacekeeping operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Estonian and Lithuanian populations more often approve this participation (50% in Estonia and 49% in Lithuania) while in Latvia the opinions split: 37% of Latvian population approve this participation and 39% disapprove.
3.2. The attitude towards the participation in “Partnership for Peace” program.
In Estonia, 69% of the residents approve this participation, 14% disapprove and 18% have no opinion.. In Lithuania, 62% approve, 12% disapprove participation in this program and 26% have no opinion.. In Latvia, 54% of population approve the participation in this program, 16% disapprove this participation and 28% have no opinion.
3.3. Attitude towards joint defense projects in the Baltic countries. Residents of the Baltic countries were asked, whether they think that the establishment of such joined military forces as peacekeeping unit “Baltbat”, joint navy squadron “Baltron” and Baltic air surveillance network “Baltnet” will help to join NATO sooner.
68% of Estonian residents,
56% of Lithuanian residents and 49%
of Latvian residents think that the
establishment of these forces will help Baltic countries to join NATO sooner.
11% of Estonian, 12% of Lithuanian and 16% of Latvian residents do not
believe in this. 21% of Estonian, 32% of Lithuanian and 34% of Latvian
residents have no opinion in this regard.
Most often mentioned in Lithuania main source of information about NATO:
People who are going to vote for their country’s membership
in NATO are more interested to know about all issues mentioned than people
who are going to vote against or people who did not decide yet how to vote
if referendum of their county joining NATO would be held.
Note:
Any quote of this text should include
the reference to NATO Office of Information and Press, Ministry for Foreign
Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania and “Baltic Surveys”/GALLUP.