DATE=5/6/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40274
TITLE=POLAND IN NATO
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  SITUATED BETWEEN GERMANY AND RUSSIA, POLAND HAS BEEN THE 
VICTIM OF BOTH. NOW WITH MEMBERSHIP IN NATO, THE POLISH PEOPLE 
SAY THEY HAVE FINALLY FOUND SECURITY. THAT IS THE OPINION OF A 
FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO POLAND, THOUGH AN AMERICAN MILITARY 
ANALYST WARNS AN EXPANDED NATO DOES NOT SOLVE THE RUSSIAN 
QUESTION. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS 

TEXT:  IT IS A FEELING OF GREAT RELIEF. THAT IS THE REACTION OF 
NICHOLAS REY TO THE U-S SENATE VOTE APPROVING THE EXPANSION OF 
NATO:

                          // REY ACT //

         IT MEANS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT FOR POLAND BECAUSE POLAND 
         HAS HAD A THOUSAND YEAR HISTORY OF BEING IN THE MIDDLE 
         OF A NO-MAN'S LAND. IT HAS HAD INVASIONS AND OCCUPATIONS
         AND DIVISIONS, PARTITIONS -- EVERYTHING YOU CAN THINK OF
         LITERALLY SINCE ITS BIRTH A THOUSAND YEARS AGO. 

                          // END ACT //

MR REY, WHO WAS BORN IN POLAND AND SERVED AS U-S AMBASSADOR THERE
FROM 1993 TO 1997, SAYS MEMBERSHIP IN NATO WILL BRING SECURITY 
AND STABILITY TO POLAND AND STRENGTHEN DEMOCRACY AND FREE 
MARKETS.

OPPONENTS OF NATO EXPANSION SAY POLAND MAY NOW BE LESS SECURE 
BECAUSE OF RUSSIAN HOSTILITY TO THE MOVE. BUT MR. REY IS 
IMPRESSED WITH THE MEASURED RUSSIAN RESPONSE SO FAR. RUSSIA HAS 
BEEN A VERY DIFFICULT NEIGHBOR, HE SAYS, BUT THE POLISH PEOPLE 
ARE NOW BETTER PREPARED TO DEAL WITH IT: 

                          // REY ACT //

         THERE IS TODAY THE SENSE THAT THERE IS A REAL 
         OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP A VERY GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH 
         RUSSIA, AND THERE IS PARTICULARLY A SENSE THAT ONCE 
         POLAND DOES BECOME A MEMBER OF NATO AND IS FIRMLY 
         CEMENTED IN WESTERN SECURITY STRUCTURES IT WILL BE 
         EASIER FOR POLAND TO DEVELOP A RELATIONSHIP OF EQUALS 
         BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THEMSELVES.

                          // END ACT //

AMBASSADOR REY SAYS IN TIME, RUSSIA SHOULD BE INVITED TO JOIN 
NATO, THOUGH THE ALLIANCE WAS ORIGINALLY DIRECTED AGAINST IT.

THIS COULD HAPPEN, BUT IT IS NOT POLITICALLY VIABLE AT PRESENT, 
SAYS MICHAEL O'HANLON, A MILITARY ANALYST AT THE BROOKINGS 
INSTITUTION IN WASHINGTON.  IN THE MEANTIME, HE SAYS, RUSSIA 
PRESENTS A PROBLEM AS THE LARGEST, MOST HEAVILY ARMED NATION IN 
EUROPE:

                       // O'HANLON ACT //

         IT SEEMS THAT IN ONE SENSE WE ARE SETTING OUR SIGHTS FAR
         TOO LOW. WHY SHOULD WE ONLY TRY TO BRING IN THE SMALLER 
         COUNTRIES OF EUROPE AND NOT TRY TO INTEGRATE RUSSIA? IF 
         OUR CONCERN IS A STABLE SECURITY ORDER FOR CENTRAL AND 
         EASTERN EUROPE, IT SEEMS FAR WISER TO THINK OF HOW TO 
         IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND NOT JUST WORRY ABOUT 
         THE EDGES OF THE PROBLEM, SO TO SPEAK.

                          // END ACT //

MR. O'HANLON IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING THAT WILL 
SLOW RUSSIAN EFFORTS TO CONTROL ITS NUCLEAR MATERIALS AND 
WEAPONS, WHICH STILL REMAIN THE MAJOR THREAT TO U-S SECURITY. 

TENSIONS ARE INCREASING BETWEEN POLAND AND NEIGHBORING BELARUS, 
WHICH IS CLOSELY ALLIED TO MOSCOW.  GIVEN THE RECORD OF PAST 
GUARANTEES, MANY POLES WONDER IF THE UNITED STATES WOULD COME TO 
THEIR AID IN THE EVENT OF A CRISIS.  A LEADING AMERICAN SCHOLAR 
GEORGE KENNAN, AMONG OTHERS, QUESTIONS THE VALUE OF THE NATO 
COMMITMENT. 

AMBASSADOR REY REPLIES BAD NEWS TRAVELS TOO FAST THESE DAYS TO BE
IGNORED OR TO GO UNANSWERED: 

                          // REY ACT //

         IN A WORLD OF THAT SORT, IF THERE WERE TO BE A REAL 
         PROBLEM IN CENTRAL EUROPE, IT WOULD BE HARD TO BELIEVE 
         THAT AMERICANS WOULD SIT BACK AND WOULD NOT ACT, JUST AS
         ULTIMATELY WE DID ACT IN BOSNIA, FOR EXAMPLE.

                          // END ACT //

MR. REY AND OTHERS POINT OUT THAT NATO HAS WORKED SO FAR DESPITE 
ALL KINDS OF CRITICISM OVER THE YEARS. THEY BELIEVE A REVISED 
NATO WILL CONTINUE TO WORK.  (SIGNED) 

NEB/WFR/KL

06-May-98 11:18 AM EDT (1518 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.