Friday, October 11, 1996
LEBED IN BRUSSELS--Russian national security chief Alexander Lebed's visit to NATO headquarters Oct. 7-8 moved commentators from Europe and a handful from other regions to judge that, although Moscow is resigned to the Alliance's enlargement to include former Warsaw Pact member states, it is still seeking to delay the process and to exact a price for its reluctant nod. This conviction was not shared by all observers--in Central Europe and Russia many chose to emphasize that Moscow's opposition to the Alliance's move has not waned: Russia realizes this is a "done deal" it is powerless to prevent. In Moscow, resentment of NATO's plans burned bright, with centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda stating, "Cooperation with NATO, including through the PFP program, has never meant this country's agreement to the Alliance's enlargement." Western pundits--mindful that NATO should not antagonize the Russians further--looked kindly on satisfying at least one Russian demand, what right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin described as a treaty guaranteeing "a privileged place for Russia at the side of the U.S. and NATO." Warsaw's center- left Gazeta Wyborcza, however, denounced Moscow's request that such a treaty precede admission of new members as "unacceptable." Editorialists also detected another Russian obstacle on the road to enlargement. "The issue will wait," French and Slovenian dailies predicted, "until Yeltsin is well, or until there is a new czar in the Kremlin." Journalists, persuaded that Mr. Lebed undertook this trip to add to his luster as a plausible successor to Mr. Yeltsin--at least before the West--were nevertheless impressed by his "balancing" act in holding fast to his views on NATO while indicating that he favors "genuine cooperation" with Russia's former adversaries. Several applauded NATO's attempt to develop ties with an up-and- coming Russian politician, although they cautioned against the perceived Western tendency to personalize relations with Russia. Conservative Catholic La Libre Belgique agreed that "NATO has just made an excellent investment," while Prague's economic Hospodarske noviny warned, "'Lebed- mania' would be as senseless as 'Yeltsin-mania' and 'Gorby-mania' earlier." ERBAKAN IN LIBYA--The visit to Libya by NATO member Turkey's Prime Minister Erbakan--made notorious by Muammar Qadhafi's "insulting" remarks--sparked an outpouring of criticism in available editorials from Turkey, expressions of concern from a German analyst and regret from a Pakistani daily that previously had praised the Turkish leader for his drive to strengthen Ankara's ties to other Muslim countries. In Istanbul, mass-appeal Milliyet fretted that "the effect (this) state of affairs will have on Turkey's relations with the Western world has to be considered" and insisted that no "radical change" has taken place in Turkey's policy of cooperation with the West. This survey is based on 51 reports from 24 countries, Oct. 3-11. EDITOR: Mildred Sola Neely LEBED COMES TO BRUSSELS EUROPE RUSSIA: "Game Lost For Now" Professor Vladimir Razuvayev wrote in reformist Segodnya (10/11): "The interest of European post-Communist countries in NATO is obvious: They need security guarantees. To the West, NATO's enlargement is a chance to strengthen its position--while Russia is considerably weakened--at Russia's expense, of course. Against this backdrop, Moscow's efforts seem belated. Whatever measures Russia had to take to secure its military and political interests should have been taken earlier, preferably at the time of the Warsaw Pact's dismantling. As things stand now, the game seems lost, temporarily." "NATO Sets Sights On Caucasus" Yury Nikolayev commented in reformist government Rossiyskiye Vesti (10/11) on a Tbilisi conference discussing security in the Caucasus: "As the world grows increasingly unipolar, you may soon find that whatever you say or do infringes on NATO's 'strategic interests.'" "Relations With NATO: Lebed's Prerogative?" Reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (10/10), in a report by Natalia Kalashnikova under the headline above, quoted Alexander Lebed as saying after his visit to NATO headquarters: "'There is no way I could come around on NATO in two days. It is just that many things are clearer to me now." The report followed with the suggestion that Lebed may now view Russia-NATO relations as his prerogative, referring to his words: 'I intend to seek a solution to this very complicated problem.'" "Highlight Of Lebed Trip: PFP Statement" Sergei Maslov in Brussels pointed out in reformist, youth Komsomolskaya Pravda (10/10): "The Lebed statement in favor of Russia's greater involvement in the PFP program is perhaps the most remarkable and important moment of his visit." "In Search Of Formula" Reformist, government Rossiyskiye Vesti (10/9) front-paged this by Vadim Makarenko: "Lebed's stand was noted, but, judging by Javier Solana's statements, it will not affect NATO's decision on new members, especially since Russia cannot retaliate adequately other than by delaying the START II ratification, which could tangibly impair Russian- U.S. relations. Russia has yet to find a formula of relations with NATO now that it no longer has a decisive say. The proposal to set the issue aside for consideration by future generations is at variance with NATO's approach to security problems. It does not meet our concerns either--it is high time Russia started to look for allies." "No Shifts" Alena Nevskaya in France and Boris Petrovich reported for reformist, youth Moskovskiy Komsomolets (10/9): "As expected, the exchange with NATO leadership resulted in no meaningful shifts, failing even to produce a confrontation." "NATO Enlargement And START II" Centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda (10/9) ran this comment by Gennady Obolensky: "In 1993-1994, instead of reasonably deciding to dissolve NATO- -which seemed like a proper move to make after the Cold War--its leadership announced enlargement plans. In no man's mind, however perverted, would a decision like that be associated with enhancing Russian security. Cooperation with NATO, including through the PFP program, has never meant this country's agreement to the Alliance's enlargement.... START II virtually impels us to concern ourselves not so much with arms reduction as rearmament, reputably a far more expensive business. So, while being appreciative of U.S. assistance (the Nunn-Lugar program), we must admit that it can only cover a fraction of our expenses." "Lebed Intrigues West" According to reformist, youth Moskovskiy Komsomolets (10/8): "Alexander Lebed amazes foreigners as another product of the mysterious Russian soul with the manners and voice of a terminator spitting out threatening statements redolent of the Cold War times. The West is terribly curious about him.... Foreigners are also awfully pragmatic. They would not have been intrigued by Lebed's radiant image, if they had not been sure that the future belongs to him. With them, proclaiming a politician a 'hopeful' means that they should try to influence and tame him. This is exactly why they invited Lebed to NATO headquarters.... The idea is to convince him that today's NATO is not an aggressive bloc of capitalist powers but a quiet, commonplace, defensive alliance.... Basically, NATO's enlargement is a done deal.... We cannot do anything about it, not with our struggling economy.... They in NATO know this only too well." "Lebed Out To Change West's Image Of Himself" Andrei Smirnov stressed in reformist, business- oriented Kommersant Daily (10/8): "Lebed is eager to dispel the West's image of himself as an unpredictable and potentially destructive force. During his first foreign trip, he intends to demonstrate that he is quite capable of adapting his views, including those on so painful an issue as NATO's enlargement, to reality which, regardless of anyone's personal convictions, requires a compromise approach." GERMANY: "Good Move" Christoph Birnbaum had this to say in an editorial in right-of-center weekly Rheinischer Merkur of Bonn (10/11), "Current East-West relations are not very favorable. 'Partnership for Peace'...is only a promise on paper--with the exception of IFOR. Further disarmament negotiations are not making progress. Nevertheless, Lebed's invitation to Brussels was right, since today's security chief can turn into a promising presidential candidate quicker than expected." "NATO Can't Leave Enlargement To Future Generation" Peter Pastorius remarked on regional radio Sender Freies Berlin (10/8), "Should NATO leave the question of its enlargement to the future generation? This will not be possible, since the candidates are pressing the Alliance to accept them. Before NATO, under Russian pressure, can give up its character as a defensive alliance, it wants to finish its enlargement. Russia hopes to buy time because it hopes to splinter the Alliance through a treaty which guarantees the Kremlin a say in all NATO matters. But this is something that NATO cannot allow without giving itself up. Either Russia will become a quasi-member or NATO returns to the old policy of balance in Europe." "Russia's Price For NATO Enlargement On The Table" Lothar Ruehl opined in an editorial in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (10/9), "The low-key appearance of General Lebed in Brussels confirms the cautious beginning of the disassociation of the Russian rejection front from an enlargement of the Alliance towards the East that was signaled already two weeks ago by Yeltsin: The retreat that saves their face has been initiated. However, this signifies by no means Russia's agreement to the acceptance of former allies of the Soviet Union by NATO. Lebed's advice to leave this decision to the 'next generation' marks the Russian strategy. "Since Moscow, owing to Russia's actual weakness and isolation, can only delay and limit NATO's enlargement, it wants to gain time for negotiations about the conditions which are already being announced: No Eastern enlargement of NATO's military structure, no permanent stationing of Allied forces and no stockpiling of nuclear weapons in the countries of the future Alliance. The NATO partners have already unofficially promised this as compensation, but thus far, have not offered it formally. Yeltsin will insist on it. The 'strategic partnership' for the construction of a 'European security architecture' offered by the Allies themselves should eventually be realized with a privileged place for Russia at the side of the United States and NATO as a whole before any enlargement of the Alliance. To this end Yeltsin calls for a formal 'treaty' even before a gradual NATO enlargement." "Lebed Insisted On His Views" National ARD-TV (10/7) aired the following commentary: "In Brussels, Alexander Lebed insisted on his view. He said that Russia would be the one half of Europe and this means that it is clear that he continues to insist on having a say concerning NATO's enlargement to the East." "The Main Subject Now Is NATO" A commentator on regional radio station Hessischer Rundfunk of Frankfurt (10/7) observed, "The main subject is now NATO's opening to the East. Nobody any longer speaks of NATO's enlargement. Lebed brings along new ideas, even though the whole leadership in Moscow rejects Poland's, the Czech Republic's, Hungary's and also Slovenia's accession to NATO.... But Lebed's considerations could be tantamount to a development which diplomats in Eastern and Central Europe would not like. Nobody dislikes Russia, but the diplomats do not like a Russia, in a future Europe, that does not want to be accepted as one of many equal nations in a common peace order, but that wants to play the role of a major (European) power like the United States.... Some Eastern Europeans are afraid that NATO will accept this view. NATO has offered Russia a charter of cooperation. Will Moscow cooperate in this charter and accept NATO's opening only after the charter offers the Russian special privileges that will lead to Russia having a say in the Alliance?" BRITAIN: "Lebed Seeks Pact With NATO" According to the independent Financial Times (10/8): "On his first visit to the West, Mr. Lebed urged the Atlantic Alliance not to hurry with its plan to take in new members, but he also made clear that Moscow was moving away from its previous stance of implacable opposition to the idea.... NATO officials hailed Mr. Lebed's keenness to negotiate over the future of European security, and they said the differences between the two sides did not appear to be unbridgeable." FRANCE: "Moscow's Aim: Delay Enlargement" Influential Le Monde's editorial said (10/10) "The Russians...denounce NATO's enlargement to the East.... But their threats have been in vain. Following the Americans, the 16 NATO members have decided to name the first new members in the spring of 1997.... The Russians, still opposed in principle, have imposed certain conditions regarding their position within the future structure for European security.... Their aim is to delay for as long as possible the enlargement to the East and to have a say about the nature of the enlargement.... If Moscow expected support from Paris, they must have been disappointed." "NATO Awaits A New Czar" Regional Nice-Matin's editorial said (10/9): "Lebed has told Brussels that Moscow does not welcome a NATO enlargement.... But in reality, in Moscow, Grozny and Brussels, what dominates is the struggle for Boris Yeltsin's successor.... Lebed is quite conscious of this. Eastern (European) countries may continue to knock on NATO's door, but the issue will wait until Yeltsin is well, or until there is a new czar in the Kremlin." "Lebed Offers A Postponement On NATO Enlargement" Pierre Bocev wrote in conservative Le Figaro (10/8): "Lebed is now confirming that there will be no 'hysterical' reaction from Moscow. But until when? The question is all the more complex because Lebed's real status within the Moscow political scene is hard to define. Aside from the consequences that Yeltsin's health might have (on Lebed's future)." "Lebed In Brussels" Bernard Guetta commented on France Inter radio (10/8): "Lebed is both a candidate campaigning for the Yeltsin succession, and a Kremlin spokesman.... In between the lines, candidate Lebed is saying to the West: You had better play along with me and the new generation, rather than going along with a sterile continuity, which only falsely reassures (the West).... But while Yeltsin makes believe he is governing from his hospital bed, nothing can really move on any front." "Lebed The Chameleon" Irina de Chikoff indicated in conservative Le Figaro (10/7): "With Lebed's arrival in Brussels, it is the dark and defiant Russia that comes to the West.... Lebed is a chameleon. He adapts his speech to the audience he meets.... He is ready for 'a civilized dialogue' about NATO.... Moscow has used threats and seduction to obtain a right of veto on the Alliance's decisions at the Russian border.... What will be Lebed's role in Brussels? This man is a cause of concern for the West, mainly because he could be Yeltsin's successor." ITALY: "Dialogue Of The Deaf" Brussels correspondent Adriana Cerretelli observed in leading financial Il Sole 24-Ore (10/8): "No special deals with Moscow on NATO enlargement: The NATO secretary general was very clear.... But General Lebed...retained his stand: 'Enlargement must be postponed.'... Is the dialogue of the deaf resurfacing?... Not at all. Moscow's opposition leaves things to take their course as it is well known that the Alliance will be enlarged in any case." BELGIUM: "Don't Place All Your Bets On Lebed" In conservative Catholic La Libre Belgique (10/10), Michel Rosten wrote that Atlantic officials are not concealing their satisfaction after Alexander Lebed's visit to NATO: "The former general is now considered by the 'Sixteen' to be a serious interlocutor. The fact that he deemed it appropriate, in front of journalists whom he met Tuesday night at the Embassy, to initiate a genuine cooperation with the Alliance tends to demonstrate that NATO has just made an excellent investment.... Nevertheless, one should not entertain any illusions. Mikhail Gorbachev also enjoyed--although belatedly--widespread popularity in the Western world. But such sympathy does not much help its beneficiary on the Russian domestic stage; on the contrary, it exposes him to fierce unpopularity.... "The West would make a tragic mistake if it were to place all its bets on Alexander Lebed. It is rather in its interest to be scrupulously respectful of the Russian hierarchy." "Moscow Knows 'Partnership' Is Nothing But Hot Air" In socialist La Wallonie (10/10), Robert Falony remarked (10/10), "No Russian government will ever be able to accept what is in fact the continuation of the policy of blocs. The Russians know very well that there is nothing but hot air in the 'partnership' we are trying to sell them." "Moscow Appears Resigned" Foreign editor Axel Buyse noted editorially in independent Catholic De Standaard (10/9), "Moscow appears to be accepting the inevitability of NATO's enlargement with grinding of teeth--an enlargement to include countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The Kremlin is only asking for time and a price to prepare and soothe Russia's strongly nationalist public opinion. NATO is willing to play this 'game.' Remaining deaf to the stubborn insistence with which a number of former Warsaw Pact nations are seeking membership would undermine the Alliance's legitimacy. It would imply that Moscow is still co-determining its former satellites' foreign policy.... "Much more interesting is the road designed by NATO itself involving Russia itself being with the Alliance as closely as possible. This can be done by involving the Russians on an equal footing in the peacekeeping force in Bosnia, (the creation of) future multilateral armed forces and the establishment of permanent mechanisms of consultation. The need is for an open game to be played with the Russians. Only such a permanent effort will make Moscow cross the bridge and sweeten the pill for the Russians, without NATO being forced to cede to its vetoes. Nevertheless, the fact will remain that (NATO's) enlargement underscores Russia's weakening as a superpower." "Russia Remains Opposed To NATO Enlargement" Independent Catholic De Standaard (10/8) observed: "Alexander Lebed and Javier Solana confirmed yesterday the desire of Russia and NATO to tackle Europe's security problems together. However, their ideas about how this should be done lie miles apart. Lebed continues to be so irritated by NATO's enlargement (plans) that he reiterated Russia's threat not to ratify several disarmament accords." "Grumbling Bear Is Seeking A Political Role" Independent Catholic Het Nieuwsblad (10/8) held: "In his search for genuine power, Lebed has been claiming economic and fiscal mandates--but these are invariably refused him. His new hobby horse is NATO. President Yeltsin can make good use of a person who can sell the Russian standpoint regarding NATO's planned enlargement to the West in a forceful manner. But no one believes that Lebed will ultimately be the man to define the Russian position. In practice, Lebed is cornered now. He may leave and become the figurehead of the opposition. However, if Yeltsin recovers from his heart surgery, the next presidential elections will take place only in 2000." BULGARIA: "The Diplomat General's First 'Ball''' Ruling Socialist Party daily Duma observed (10/11): "Alexander Lebed's visit to the NATO Headquarters was more symbolic than political. At the end of his visit, he declared that Russia should no longer be a passive participant in the PFP initiative--on the contrary, it should try to influence actively security processes in the continent. However, if some people cherished any illusions that the general had changed his mind regarding NATO enlargement, they must have been deeply disappointed.... Lebed warned that Russia should be on the alert not to allow anyone to treat it 'like they treated Iraq.'... In this way, Lebed demonstrated his ability to listen to his partners and his unwillingness to pound on the table, because such political behavior is already out- of-date. At the same time, however, he showed that he cannot easily be made to follow anybody's instructions regardless of the gentle line he has adopted." "There Is No Substantial Change In Russia's Position" Ruling Socialist Party Duma (10/7) said, "The discrepancies in the positions of NATO and Russia are evident.... The Alliance has to make a difficult decision: Either to negotiate with Russia or to let its relations with that country deteriorate.... The Partnership for Peace turned out to be a well-calculated tactic, aimed at pacifying Russia's fears of isolation. Three years after the idea of PFP was launched, there is some progress only in rhetoric.... The most logical way out of this situation is to further delay the decision, during which time, the two parties would anticipate a breakthrough in their relations, bringing their positions closer. Otherwise, we will live in a 'cold peace,' according to Yeltsin, or will perish in a 'hot war,' according to Lebed. In other words, there is no substantial change in Russia's position." CZECH REPUBLIC: "Does 'Lebed-Mania' Threaten The West?" A commentary by Dimitrij Belosevsky in economic Hospodarske Noviny (10/10) noted, "The West's interest in Lebed is motivated by the growing rivalry among the Russian elite, and--proportionally--by Lebed's increasing popularity among Russian citizens. Lebed's chances of becoming the next Russian president are now higher than after the presidential election. Despite his outlasting 'apprenticeship' in the field of diplomacy, Lebed was basically able to make a positive impression on representatives of the West. At the same time, he neither stepped back from the declared positions of Moscow too much, nor thwarted the chance for future dialogue between Russia and NATO..... However, the West, Lebed himself, and mainly Russia, are threatened by personification of the Russian power that the West is repeating for the third time. Recent history of Russia proves its counter- productiveness clearly. 'Lebed-mania' would be as senseless as 'Yeltsin-mania' and 'Gorby-mania' earlier." HUNGARY: "Afraid Of General Lebed?" Conservative Magyar Nemzet (10/10) held, "The well-dressed, retired general proved in Brussels that he has a political future. The new 'strong man' of Russia created the basis for serious talks between his country and NATO, making it clear that Moscow is open for compromise on the issue but will certainly ask a high price for it. Lebed is finally taken seriously both at home and abroad and that is why, the minute he left his country, a most coordinated attack was launched against him. Western analysts argue however that Lebed might easily become the first Russian politician with a military background who can maneuver successfully in the labyrinth of the Kremlin and, if he is not too impatient, he can even win Yeltsin's support. "Talks on the enlargement are becoming more and more concrete and the charter to be signed between NATO and Russia will certainly have a strong influence on the status of newly-admitted Central-Eastern European states within the Alliance. Lebed knows this and this is why he is to be taken seriously." POLAND: "What Is Lebed's Opinion On Enlargement?" Public Television Channel 1's main news aired this comment by Waldemar Milewicz (10/8), "A two-day visit to NATO of the secretary of the Kremlin Security Council and his previous statements indicate that he doesn't have a firm opinion on the Treaty. One day he says that this is a hostile organization, a relic of the Cold War, the next day he wants to cooperate with this organization. The problem is that the Treaty has been occupying his words more and more. This could mean the fluctuation of moods till the day when we will finally become a NATO member." "Lebed In Brussels" Center-left Gazeta Wyborcza (10/8) carried this commentary: "Russia's proposal to precede the decision on NATO enlargement with a bilateral treaty between NATO and Russia is unacceptable. The optimists are hoping that Lebed will understand that he will not gain much by raising a hue and cry and issuing threats. The pessimists read dispatches from Moscow and remind us that the former Russian Minister of Defense Pavel Grachev was dismissed by Yeltsin just two days after Grachev's noisy visit to Brussels." "Kremlin Has Capitulated, But Now It Wants To Bargain" Warsaw's Channel 2 (10/7) commented, "The Kremlin has capitulated, but now it wants to bargain profitable conditions: First, NATO will sign with Russia a treaty about partnership with legal consequences, then we are going to think together about the conditions and requirements of the enlargement. Moscow would like, at least in this way, to slow down the process of the admission of new members. NATO, however, says openly that the admission of the new members doesn't depend on relations with Russia." SLOVENIA: "Lebed Has Given No Relief" In an article under the headline above, left-of-center Delo (10/9) stated: "Contrary to expectations, (Lebed) was sufficiently diplomatic to leave enough maneuvering room for both parties.... Further straining of relations is likely--particularly on the Russian side--which may result in a special agreement.... Nevertheless, Lebed's visit to Brussels has confirmed the fact that NATO will expand...despite Russia's opposition. The prospect that NATO will expand next year is less certain despite the fact that no other dates are being mentioned. The decision by the foreign and defense ministers of the NATO countries at their December meeting may be the first important signal. The meeting will take place only a couple of days before Yeltsin's scheduled surgery. Both events are more tightly connected than either side is willing to admit." SPAIN: "A Russian At NATO" Liberal El Pais editorialized (10/10): "NATO's welcome to the secretary general of Russia's Security Council is a clear indication that the Alliance supports Lebed. The fact that he has chosen NATO for his first trip to the West reflects the importance that Lebed places in the Alliance's relations with Moscow. Among Russian leaders, he is the one who expresses the least resistance to NATO expansion and he confirmed that he would not block it...which is a step forward. In any case, opposing expansion would decrease Russia's influence on European security rather than increase it. Trying to achieve a fruitful relationship between NATO and Russia is more important for European general interests than a hasty expansion of the organization.... For the time being, NATO must endeavor to create a better framework for cooperation with Russia without thinking about its membership. A letter of intent or a bilateral treaty would be a reasonable next step.... However, NATO cannot be subject to Yeltsin's reform plans because of the high level of uncertainty in Russian political life--an uncertainty which contributes to NATO's very existence." "Time Could Be No More Favorable For Spain To Become Full- Fledged Member" Conservative ABC's editorial (10/7) stressed, "The moment could not be more favorable for Spain to become a NATO member without any limitation. However, the president has to be careful not to allow himself to be entangled into old disputes.... Felipe Gonzalez, the leader of the opposition, has already admitted that the referendum on NATO was a mistake and that Aznar must act thinking of the future alone and trying to unite all wills around such an important project as NATO is for Spain." SWEDEN: "Russia's Strategy" Conservative Svenska Dagbladet (10/9) judged, "The recent visit to NATO headquarters of Alexander Lebed...elucidated Russia's strategy vis-a-vis NATO enlargement.... The balancing act which the Russians have chosen is in line with their own interests. Their threats must not be too strong so that the arguments for NATO's enlargement, aimed at supporting the newly independent states in Central and Eastern Europe, will be enhanced. At the same time the Russians must try to make their influence felt with regards to the unavoidable enlargement of NATO. This influence would in reality be the veto right that the Atlantic Alliance repeatedly has said it will not give the Russians. In international policy the Russians are unreserved in their actions. But they, on the other side, have not survived the brutal school of Communism by acting like boy scouts." EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC CHINA: "Differences Remain On NATO Expansion" Brussels correspondent Zhang Baoxiang and Moscow correspondent Xu Hongzhi in the official Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao) maintained (10/11): "Major differences still remain between Russia and NATO on the fundamental issue of NATO expansion.... These differences center around three questions: whether or not it is necessary for NATO to expand; what procedure should be followed; and what the timetable will be.... Nato Secretary General Solana and Russian minister Lebed also favor different approaches on how to resolve these differences." "NATO Determined To Proceed With Expansion But Russia Remains Opposed" Sun Zhanlin concluded in official, Communist Party People's Daily Overseas Edition (Renmin Ribao Hai Wai Ban, 10/10), After several days of meetings at NATO headquarters, Russia remains opposed to NATO's plan for expansion. Lebed's meetings with...Solana did not produce any visible changes of view on the part of Russia or NATO. Neither side was willing to compromise substantially on the issues that divide them.... However, both sides expressed the desire to strengthen dialogue." LATIN AMERICA BRAZIL: "Prudence Is Necessary In Enlargement" Readers of conservative O Globo saw this commentary (10/10), "In the middle of a power struggle in Russia, General Alexander Lebed is visiting NATO headquarters to lobby against the entrance into that organization of East European ex-satellites of the USSR. The general says he is not making threats or warnings (and could not make them convincing). In truth, he is showing symptoms of a secular paranoia of Russians: the fear of being surrounded and invaded, as happened to them with Napoleon and Hitler. "Now add to the supposed threat from NATO the Islamic danger, violence in Afghanistan and present on the borders of ex-republics like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. "Czechs, Hungarians and Poles have the right to take care of their own security. But prudence is necessary in the project to expand NATO. In a moment in Russia when power is practically out in the streets, it is not good to give Russian ultranationalists more ammunition than they already have." ERBAKAN GOES TO LIBYA EUROPE TURKEY: "Qhadafi Did A Great 'Service' To Turkey" Independent, mass-appeal Hurriyet remarked (10/8), "Qadhafi, the greatest of all jokers in the world, has done a great service to Turkey. We will definitely be obliged to him.... Thousands of people, who act with common sense, would not have been able to create the present situation if they had come together to speak or write about [Turkish Prime Minister] Erbakan.... He looked into Erbakan's eyes and made disrespectful remarks against Turkey and the Turkish people.... Erbakan was insulted in Egypt and Libya.... What we may conclude from Erbakan's visit to the two countries is as follows: 1. The design of those who try to deceive the Turkish people by stressing the importance of 'religious brotherhood' has been exposed. We have seen the nature of our brothers in religion and their grudge, hatred, and inimical feelings against Turkey.... 2. The developments in Egypt and Libya have confirmed the uselessness of the concepts of the Islamic world, the Islamic dinar, the Islamic military pact similar to NATO, and the Islamic common market, concepts which some of the officials have tried to persuade people to support. 3. The fact that Erbakan has no influence and respect in the Islamic world has come to light." "Consider Effect On Turkey's Relations With Western Countries" Sami Kohen wrote in mass-appeal Milliyet (10/8), "The Libyan dictator attacked Turkey's foreign policy, distorted historical facts, humiliated the Turkish people, and called for independence for the Kurds instead of supporting Turkey's struggle against the PKK (Workers' Party of Kurdistan).... The views Erbakan outlined in Libya conflicted with Turkey's policies. That has been carefully noted by Western and other countries. The effect that state of affairs will have on Turkey's relations with the Western world has to be considered... President Suleyman Demirel must not sign the decree on Erbakan's visit. That will end the difficult situation Turkey has been confronted with. Furthermore, it will show the world that the developments in Libya concern only the coalition government's larger partner, not the republic as a whole." "Torn Apart In A Bedouin Tent" Istanbul's independent, mass-appeal Hurriyet concluded (10/7) in a column by Ertugrul Ozkok: "Our honorable republic was torn apart in a Bedouin tent. Unfortunately, this person, who has become the prime minister by coincidence, failed to react. He only stared at the sky and said nothing.... Those who should be concerned are the officials who helped him become the prime minister and the 21 percent of the electorate that encouraged him to change the course Turkey has maintained for 70 years." "Is Foreign Policy Being Changed?" Under the headline above, mass-appeal Milliyet's Sami Kohen said (10/3), "Prime Minister Erbakan's visit to Africa, which includes Libya, has made many foreign officials wonder whether or not Turkey's policy will be changed.... What has and has not been changed in Turkey's "foreign policy since the Refahyol government came to power in July has to be studied. Otherwise, adopting a final decision by only considering...Erbakan's visit to Iran and Libya...will be wrong. Several examples can be given to confirm that a radical change has not taken place in Turkey's foreign policy.... It is common knowledge that the green light has been given to the (Provide Comfort), Turkey-EU customs union, and cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the military field.... Turkey and the United States maintained their close cooperation during the Iraqi crisis, regardless of their difference in various respects.... The proposal for a dialogue on Cyprus and the Aegean problems have been kept on Turkey's agenda... Turkey has maintained its resolute stand against terrorism.... "What has led several analysts to believe (or conclude) that a move has been made to effect radical changes in Turkey's foreign policy can be explained as follows...Erbakan has deliberately and in defiance of Washington included Libya in his visit program to Africa shortly after he visited Tehran, being fully aware that both are on the U.S. list of countries which support terrorism.... The prime minister and his close associates are constantly in touch with the representatives of the radical Islamic countries and organizations.... Regardless of the silence Erbakan has maintained or the statements he has carefully made, his close associates and the commentators who support the RP have attacked the United States and the Western countries at every opportunity.... Despite all this, to conclude that changes are taking place in Turkey's foreign policy would be wrong. It also would be unfair to Turkey and even to the RP." GERMANY: "Erbakan To Libya" Right-of-center Hessische/Niedersaechsische Allgemeine of Kassel opined (10/8): "The fact that the Turkish premier was snubbed to such a degree has created either anger or a smile among the Turks, depending on one's political leanings. While Erbakan's coalition partner, Tansu Ciller, declared Qadhafi a 'state enemy,' many people supported opposition leader Yilmaz, who said that one must be stupid if one travels to see a stupid person.... "This episode teaches us two lessons: First, how dangerous it is to have dealings with Qadhafi, something German entrepreneurs are once in a while seduced to do; and, second, the fact that Islam, which many people consider to be a monolithic bloc, has many facets. These facets will come to the fore...if Muslim politicians of totally different personal stature and from states with totally different historical experiences come together." SOUTH ASIA IRAN: "Ciller And Secular, Pro-Western Forces In Turkey" Tehran Radio aired this commentary (10/8) regarding Foreign Minister Tansu Ciller's reported remarks that Iran, Syria and Libya support the PKK: "Ciller's claims are believed to be linked to the political inclinations of the secular forces in Turkey. In other words, the pro-Western and secular forces, which have been disturbed by the improvement and strengthening of relations between Ankara and the Islamic world and which have used every opportunity to obstruct this trend, have moved to ax the development of relations between Turkey and the Islamic countries, particularly after Prime Minister Erbakan's visit to Tehran, by making unfounded accusations." PAKISTAN: "Erbakan's Mission And Qadhafi" An editorial in the radical Muslim (10/10) remarked, "Erbakan emerged on the political scene as a breath of fresh air in seeing the possibility of not giving up what Turkey already possesses but adding an Islamic touch to the various dimensions in which Muslim nations are involved today.... Qadhafi had no business raising the Kurdish issue.... We regret that a sincere effort "undertaken by the Turkish prime minister was received in such an uncalled for and unprecedentedly discourteous manner." "Erbakan Sides With Palestine, Iran And Libya" An editorial in the radical Muslim (10/8) commented, "Despite some tremendous pressure on the Turkish prime minister...he opted for identifying himself and his government with the genuine Muslim causes.... His visit to Libya is seen as a sound start for strong and solid ties that would include closer economic cooperation between the two Muslim countries.... "The latest strong moves by the secular Turkish state and open disagreements with the policies of the United States should be an eye-opener for Washington. For quite some time the U.S. administration has been pursuing a biased policy in dealing with the Muslim world that has alienated even its strong allies in the region. Unfortunately, the American policy is totally geared to serve the narrow interests of the Zionist entity in Israel at the expense of over 1.5 billion Muslims.... For how long can the U.S. administration suppress the struggle of the Muslims in their genuine and legitimate bid to assert their identity, freedom and independence? For how long will the Americans continue with the policy of siege, sanctions and embargo against Muslim people?" EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC INDONESIA: "Erbakan's Trip To Libya To Be Commended" Independent Suara Pembaruan expressed this point of view (10/8): "Turkish Prime Minister Erbakan's visit to...Libya has received criticism both at home and abroad.... He has the courage to move outside the mainstream despite threats.... Economic and trade progress do not necessarily follow a political agenda. Pro-West principles may not reap great economic benefit for Turkey, but are important for security and defense. Erbakan has taken a pragmatic step at no expense to national secular principles. Erbakan's visit to Libya to further bilateral cooperation deserves appreciation and commendation." ## NATO JOURNEYS: LEBED IN BRUSSELS, ERBAKAN IN LIBYA