DATE= 10/8/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-37737
TITLE=COSTS OF NATO EXPANSION
BYLINE=REBECCA MCMENAMIN
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: NATO EXPANSION MOVED TO CENTER STAGE IN THE U-S CONGRESS
THIS WEEK AS SENATORS BEGAN DEBATE ON THE PROPOSED ADMISSION OF
THREE NEW MEMBERS TO THE ALLIANCE -- HUNGARY, POLAND AND THE
CZECH REPUBLIC. ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES IN THE DEBATE IS HOW MUCH
EXPANSION WILL COST. THE FINAL ESTIMATES ARE NOT YET IN, BUT
V-O-A'S REBECCA MCMENAMIN HAS THIS REPORT ON HOW U-S OFFICIALS
BELIEVE THE MONEY SHOULD BE SPENT.
TEXT: AS NATO DIPLOMATS TRY TO DRAFT A FINAL COST-ANALYSIS FOR
EXPANSION, TWO KEY ISSUES ARE AT STAKE. FIRST -- WHAT NEW AND
CURRENT NATO MEMBERS NEED TO DO TO ENSURE SUCCESSFUL MILITARY
INTEGRATION? AND SECOND, WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THESE CHANGES?
THE TRIO OF NEW INDUCTEES, POLAND, HUNGARY AND THE CZECH
REPUBLIC, FACE A DIFFICULT TASK OF TRANSFORMING THEIR ARMIES TO
MEET WESTERN STANDARDS -- WHILE ALSO TRYING TO REBUILD ECONOMIES
DEVASTATED BY DECADES OF COMMUNISM.
U-S ASSISTANT DEFENSE SECRETARY FRANKLIN KRAMER RECENTLY RETURNED
FROM A VISIT TO EUROPE THAT INCLUDED EXTENSIVE TALKS ON NATO
EXPANSION. HE IS URGING THE NEW ALLIANCE MEMBERS TO FOCUS ON
UPGRADING THEIR TRAINING AND COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS, RATHER THAN
MAKING MORE EXPENSIVE PURCHASES OF HIGH-TECH WEAPONS.
/// KRAMER ACT ///
THE KINDS OF CHANGES THEY NEED TO MAKE FOCUS FIRST AND
FOREMOST ON HAVING A PERSONNEL SYSTEM THAT IS COMPATIBLE
WITH THE NATO COUNTRIES' SYSTEMS, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THEY
HAVE A GOOD NON-COMMISSIONED OFFICER CORPS, WHICH IS AT
THE HEART OF ALL WESTERN MILITARIES. SECOND, THEY NEED
TO DO THE KIND OF TRAINING THAT NATO MILITARIES DO AND
UNDERSTAND THE NATO DOCTRINE SO THEY CAN WORK WELL WITH
THE NATO COUNTRIES. THIRD, THEY NEED TO BE ABLE TO
COMMUNICATE WELL WITH NATO COUNTRIES, THEY NEED TO HAVE
THE KIND OF RECEPTION FACILITIES THAT WOULD ALLOW
REINFORCEMENT IF NECESSARY, THEY NEED TO HAVE COMPATIBLE
LOGISTICS-TYPE SYSTEMS.
/// END ACT ///
THE CURRENT TIMEFRAME FOR EXPANSION CALLS FOR THE THREE CENTRAL
EUROPEAN STATES TO BECOME FULL-FLEDGED NATO MEMBERS IN 1999. BUT
SECRETARY KRAMER SUGGESTS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO STRETCH OUT
MILITARY REFORMS OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD, GIVEN THAT NATO NO
LONGER FACES A COLD WAR-STYLE THREAT.
/// KRAMER ACT ///
I DON'T THINK IT'S REALLY A QUESTION OF A DEADLINE. IN
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, WE HAVE A NUMBER OF YEARS FOR
THEM TO GET READY. THE IMPORTANT THING IS THAT THEY HAVE
A PLAN TO TRANSFORM THEIR MILITARIES AND THAT IT HAPPEN
OVER A REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME.
/// END ACT ///
SPREADING OUT THE TIMETABLE FOR REFORMS COULD BE CRITICAL, GIVEN
THE COSTS INVOLVED. A PENTAGON STUDY ESTIMATES THAT NATO
EXPANSION WILL COST UP TO 35-BILLION DOLLARS OVER THE NEXT DOZEN
YEARS. UNDER THE U-S SCENARIO, NEARLY HALF OF THAT WOULD BE PAID
BY THE NEW MEMBER STATES. THE UNITED STATES' SHARE WOULD BE
TWO-BILLION DOLLARS, LEAVING THE REST, OR SOME 16-BILLION
DOLLARS, TO OTHER CURRENT NATO MEMBERS.
THE HIGH COST FOR WEST EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS HAS MANY OFFICIALS
THERE BALKING AT THE U-S CONCEPT. BUT SECRETARY KRAMER MAINTAINS
MUCH OF THIS MONEY WOULD BE SPENT ON ALREADY-PLANNED AND
MUCH-NEEDED MODERNIZATION PROGRAMS.
STEPHEN CAMBONE, AN ANALYST WITH THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON, AGREES.
/// CAMBONE ACT ///
A GOOD DEAL OF THE COSTS THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SEES
BEING SHOULDERED BY THE NATO ALLIES WOULD BE COSTS THAT
THEY WOULD INCUR IN MODERNIZATION IN ANY EVENT. THE
DIFFICULTY WITH THAT IS IN FRANCE, AND IN GERMANY, AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT IN BRITAIN, FOR EXAMPLE, THE AMOUNT
OF MONEY AVAILABLE FOR DEFENSE BUDGETS IS DECLINING.
THEY ARE STILL GOING THROUGH THEIR OWN ECONOMIC
RESTRUCTURING WHILE AT SAME TIME THEY'RE TRYING TO BRING
ON A NEW MONETARY SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EUROPEAN UNION
AND, THIRDLY, ADD NEW MEMBERS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION.
THOSE THREE ACTIVITIES ON THE DOMESTIC SIDE OF THE
LEDGER HAVE ABSORBED A FAIR SHARE OF AVAILABLE RESOURCES
WITHIN NATO STATES.
/// END ACT ///
IN ADDITION, SOME WEST EUROPEAN OFFICIALS COMPLAIN THAT THE U-S
PUSH FOR MODERNIZATION IS JUST A PLOY TO FORCE NATO MEMBERS TO GO
ON A BUYING BINGE OF TOP-OF-THE-LINE AMERICAN WEAPONS.
ASSISTANT DEFENSE SECRETARY KRAMER REJECTS THIS CHARGE. AND MR.
CAMBONE NOTES THAT EVEN IF THERE IS A NEW MARKET FOR AMERICAN
DEFENSE FIRMS, ITS SIZE WOULD BE MUCH SMALLER THAN MANY EXPECTED
BECAUSE OF BUDGET CONSTRAINTS.
GIVEN THESE CONTROVERSIES, MR. CAMBONE PREDICTS NATO'S FINAL
ESTIMATE OF THE COST OF EXPANSION WILL BE LOWER THAN THE U-S
FIGURE.
/// CAMBONE ACT ///
I THINK WHAT IT WILL PROBABLY END UP RESULTING IN IS THE
OVERALL ESTIMATE OF COSTS WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN. WHICH IS
TO SAY THAT THE LEVEL OF SUPPORT THAT NATO AS A GROUP IS
GOING TO BE WILLING TO PROVIDE TO NEW MEMBER STATES WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE NEW MEMBER STATES HAD
HOPED.
/// END ACT ///
NATO'S COST PROJECTIONS ARE TO BE READY IN DECEMBER. THAT WOULD
CLEAR THE WAY FOR LAWMAKERS IN THE 16 CURRENT NATO STATES TO VOTE
EARLY NEXT YEAR ON WHETHER TO RATIFY ENLARGEMENT OF THE ALLIANCE.
(SIGNED)
NEB/RJM/RRM
08-Oct-97 4:41 PM EDT (2041 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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