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USIS Washington 
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04 June 1999

TEXT: U.S. AMBASSADOR TO NATO ON THE FUTURE OF THE ALLIANCE

(Vershbow addresses American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels) (2890)

Brussels -- NATO in the 21st century will maintain strong defense
capabilities, despite the end of the Cold War and reduced military
threats to its territory, because of the need to defend the alliance's
shared values -- among them democracy, human rights and rule of law,
says the chief U.S. NATO representative.

Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, U.S. Permanent Representative on the
North Atlantic Council, discussed NATO's future in remarks June 3 to
the American Chamber of Commerce here.

Vershbow noted that one of the priorities of NATO, as agreed at the
recent NATO 50th anniversary summit in Washington in April, will be to
bring more balance to the contributions that the members make to the
alliance's military capabilities, through the Defense Capabilities
Initiative. "The Kosovo crisis," he said, "has exposed the huge
disparity between U.S. and European capabilities, and we hope that our
European allies absorb this lesson by following through on the DCI."

He said the NATO for the 21st century envisioned at the summit "turned
out to be exactly the NATO we needed to deal with the crisis in Kosovo
now, in the last year of the 20th century: an Alliance grounded in
robust defense capabilities, equipped to deal with crises on Europe's
periphery, and acting in partnership with non-NATO countries in
defense of common values and interests."

Following is the prepared text of Vershbow's remarks to the group:

(begin text)

NATO IN THE 21ST CENTURY

Ambassador Alexander Vershbow
U.S. Permanent Representative on the North Atlantic Council
American Chamber of Commerce
Brussels
June 3, 1999

When most of us think of flexible, versatile, adaptable organizations,
we usually think of companies and financial institutions like those
represented here. Government organizations don't usually come to mind,
and international organizations almost never come to mind. But let me
introduce a radical idea today. I believe that the world's largest and
most complex multinational security organization -- NATO -- has
virtually reinvented itself in a few astonishing years

NATO has been transformed from a closed, Cold War military alliance,
focused almost exclusively on the territorial defense of its members,
to an enlarged -- and enlarging -- security and political
organization, possessing military capabilities from the lightest to
the heaviest, ready to defend Allied territory and interests wherever
members agree to act. The business analogy is limited, but you might
say that NATO earned its living selling collective defense for 45
years. We still have the finest product on the market. But we have
added something new to the inventory. NATO now provides security and
stability within and beyond its borders. We are still de-bugging the
new product, but the demand is tremendous, and the market is getting
bigger and bigger.

Now, this is partly tongue-in-cheek, but I do believe that NATO has
achieved a stunning transformation over the past decade, establishing
a new relevance for a new security environment that gives credence to
the rhetoric that you so often hear: NATO will be around for another
50 years.

The blueprint for the "New NATO" was set out at the Washington Summit
in April, and I want to tell you about its main outlines. I also will
say a few words about NATO's engagement in Kosovo. The two are
fundamentally related. The NATO for the 2lst century that we had been
planning to launch at the Summit turned out to be exactly the NATO we
needed to deal with the crisis in Kosovo now, in the last year of the
20 century: an Alliance grounded in robust defense capabilities,
equipped to deal with crises on Europe's periphery, and acting in
partnership with non-NATO countries in defense of common values and
interests.

But before I delve deeper into the NATO of the 2lst century, let me
say a few words about the strategic environment.

First, as pundits are so fond of reminding us, the nature or the
threats facing our societies has changed. Communism has been
discredited, and the inane threat posed by Russia is to itself --
through economic collapse, autocratic leadership and corruption. The
United States still has a vital interest in the security and stability
of Europe, and we continue to take seriously our common commitment to
the collective defense of our Allies -- including the three new
members who joined in March. But the possibility that one of the
Allies will be face large-scale aggression from without looks quite
unlikely for the present. Today's Europe faces a different set of
risks -- ethnic and regional conflict, weapons of mass destruction,
terrorism, and so-called "asymmetric" threats like cyber-warfare.

Second, the nature of U.S. relations with Europe has changed. All of
you, of course, follow EU developments closely, and understand the
significance of the march toward European political and economic
integration. This is an historic process that the United States
welcomes and supports wholeheartedly. We need a Europe that can be a
genuine partner on the international stage -- even if, on some issues,
we end up taking contrary positions. In the field of security and
defense, Europe has declared its ambition to play a greater role
relative to the United States -- to the point that there is talk of
recruiting NATO's CEO to galvanize the effort. This ambition, however,
has yet to be matched by a commitment to develop the requisite
military capabilities (about which I will have more to say in a
moment).

This brings me to the third change in international circumstances that
will affect NATO's future: the nature of warfare is different now from
what it was in 1949. With a few exceptions, Allies haven't had to
defend their own soil since the Second World War. The military
conflicts Allies have engaged in over the past 50 years, directly or
indirectly -- Korea, Suez, Algeria, Rhodesia, Vietnam, Central
America, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, now the Balkans -- have been
largely about threats to our interests, not our territory. The
experiences of the U.S. in Vietnam, our first televised war, showed
just how difficult it can be to sustain a military engagement abroad,
especially when casualties mount. Most Americans have raised their
thresholds for defining our vital foreign interests. Allied publics
insist that political and diplomatic options be tried and tried again,
before any consideration is given to using force.

But now, on NATO's southern flank, a conflict is occurring that has
challenged almost all our concepts of non-violent crisis response. I'm
speaking, of course, about Kosovo, where Serb soldiers, police and
paramilitaries are waging a systematic campaign of terror, murder and
rape against Kosovo's Albanian population. The objective is to drive
hundreds of thousands into exile in order to create a new ethnic
reality on the ground. This is the second time in a decade that NATO
-- and the United States have faced Milosevic's contempt for
international norms, even for the laws of war.

The Balkans have been a crucial, and at times, bitter test for NATO.
In the early years of the decade, a reluctant United States encouraged
a European-led approach to the Bosnian crisis that only triggered a
series of political and military failures, while the violence and
suffering continued unchecked. By 1995, the European Community, CSCE
and United Nations had all tried and failed, and NATO itself was torn
apart over what to do next. This prompted President Clinton, in the
summer of 1995, to launch a major U.S. initiative, linked to NATO air
power, to end the conflict. Fortunately, NATO rallied to the
challenge, leading to the Dayton Accords and the deployment of NATO's
first peacekeeping force, IFOR. This resilience and commitment to
stability beyond NATO's borders showed that the Alliance was on the
road to something new.

When the Kosovo crisis erupted early last year, the Alliance agreed
from the outset on a collective response. We supported diplomatic
efforts while initiating contingency planning for military
intervention. Last fall, the credible threat of NATO air strikes
together with U.S. diplomacy brought a temporary respite. But by the
beginning of this year, Milosevic had trampled on his own commitments,
and a humanitarian disaster was beginning to unfold, as hundreds of
thousands of Albanians fled their homes. In refusing to negotiate at
Rambouillet, Milosevic made clear that he was not really interested in
a political solution, but was committed to changing the ethnic map by
force.

Supported by the International Community, NATO commenced an air
campaign aimed at thwarting -- or reversing -- his plans. NATO laid
down five non-negotiable conditions for ending the bombing conditions
which were repeated by the EU, the U.N. Secretary General and, in
general form, by the G8 countries, including Russia. NATO's resolve to
get all Serb forces out and all the Kosovar refugees back in has
stunned Milosevic. The air effort has taken longer than we had hoped
and hasn't been problem-free. But we are grinding the Serb war and
repression machine into the ground, and the Allies are more committed
than ever to see the operation through.

As the air campaign has intensified, diplomatic efforts have also
accelerated to secure Milosevic's acceptance of NATO's terms. Anything
less would mean only a temporary lull and would fail to achieve our
most critical objective, getting all the refugees home in safety,
protected by an international security force with NATO at its core.
Like you, we are all eagerly awaiting the results of the visit to
Belgrade by Russian envoy Chernomyrdin and Finnish President
Ahtisaari, who is speaking for the EU and NATO position.

Six weeks ago, with the Kosovo crisis in full thunder, we convened the
NATO 50th Anniversary Summit in Washington. We asked ourselves some
tough questions. For instance, "Without a serious enemy, why maintain
a strong defense?" The answer is simple. Our shared values --
democracy, the rule of law, civilian control over military structures,
respect for human rights -- are themselves every bit as much worth
defending as is our territory.

NATO's ability to back its political and moral authority with military
might allowed us to defend our common values and protect peace and
prosperity in Western Europe for 50 years. At the Washington Summit in
April, leaders approved a blueprint for NATO in the 2lst century,
called the Strategic Concept. This document reaffirmed collective
defense as NATO's fundamental reason for being, but also recognized
that NATO's military might could and should be brought to bear when
the stability, security and values of the Euro-Atlantic community came
under threat, even if NATO territory is not at risk. Thus they defined
crisis management as a second fundamental task for the Alliance.

It is worth mentioning that the Strategic Concept, in raising the
profile of crisis management, made explicit the need for Allied
governments and military planners to ensure that our forces are more
mobile, sustainable, and flexible -- that is, capable of collective
defense, but also able to undertake the full range of crisis response
operations. To meet the requirement for these more capable and
deployable forces, our leaders approved a Defense Capabilities
Initiative (DCI) that commits Allies to build them together. The
Kosovo crisis has exposed the huge disparity between U.S. and European
capabilities, and we hope that our European allies absorb this lesson
by following through on the DCI. For some, this may mean devoting more
resources to defense; for all, it will mean spending existing
resources more wisely.

The Strategic Concept also lays out a positive, pro-active mission for
the NATO: promoting and projecting stability through political and
military cooperation with other democratic states -- which is the
essence of NATO's extraordinarily successful Partnership for Peace.
The Strategic Concept emphasizes that non-NATO nations can and will
participate in NATO-led operations -- as, for example, has occurred in
Bosnia, where Swedish, Finnish, Russian, Ukrainian, and Baltic
soldiers, to name only some, participate in peacekeeping alongside
Americans, British, Italians, Germans and others from NATO nations.

The Summit adopted several initiatives to deepen the operational
involvement of Partner nations in future crisis response operations.
These show that NATO is more than just an Alliance of the 19, but the
core of wider network of democratic states prepared to join forces
when their interests demand. It also gives troops from countries who
aspire to NATO membership the opportunity to train and even deploy
alongside our own.

This brings me to the subject of NATO enlargement. Since its
establishment, NATO has always been open to nations who share its
values, and who would contribute to collective defense. When the fall
of the Berlin Wall erased the division between East and West, the
countries of Central Europe embarked on the road of democratization,
economic liberalization and military reform. They saw joining NATO as
an essential part of joining the West, and made clear that they were
ready to share the burdens as well as the benefits of membership.
Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic officially became Allies on
March 12, bringing the total membership to 19. Slovenia, Slovakia,
Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
are all on record as hoping to join in the next round.

But NATO membership is not automatic. Only qualified countries will be
admitted. At the Washington Summit, our leaders committed themselves
to helping NATO aspirants make themselves into the best possible
candidates for membership, through a Membership Action Plan. At a
Summit to be held no later than 2002, Allied Heads of State and
Government will review progress and determine if inviting additional
aspiring nations to join would enhance the Alliance's overall
security. This is not a guarantee that any particular country will get
an invitation, but it does signal our commitment to maintaining the
momentum of the enlargement process.

For several years, NATO has been exploring the possibilities for
giving the European members of the Alliance more responsibility in
defense and crisis management. This project has been dubbed the
development of the European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI). A
breakthrough was reached three years ago in Berlin, where NATO
Ministers agreed to build ESDI within NATO on the basis of the notion
of "separable but not separate" European forces. The idea was to
create the mechanisms to permit the European allies to take the lead
-- under the banner of the Western European Union (WEU) -- in
situations when we judge that NATO does not need to be engaged or that
U.S. forces are not required.

Prime Minister Blair and President Chirac met last fall in St. Malo to
discuss how the European Union could increase its security role under
the Amsterdam Treaty -- possibly taking over the role envisaged for
the WEU. The situation is complicated because some European Allies --
notably Turkey -- are not members of the EU, and some EU members --
for example, Sweden and Finland -- are not Allies. But the urge to
shift defense responsibilities toward an increasingly prosperous EU is
shared in Brussels and in Washington.

At the NATO Summit we agreed on provisions whereby ESDI would be
strengthened through NATO's lending of its assets and capabilities to
the WEU and, in the future, to the EU, so that Europe can take greater
responsibility for security in its own back yard. U.S. domestic
support for NATO will likely be stronger if the Europeans make good on
their pledge to back the emerging institutional changes with real
military capabilities. It is important, however, that the
transatlantic link not be weakened in the process. That means avoiding
wasteful duplication of assets or discrimination against non-EU allies
who wish to contribute to European operations. We will be assessing
the results of today's EU Summit in Cologne with these considerations
in mind.

One additional Summit initiative is worth mentioning, and that is the
decision of Allied leaders to undertake new activities to address the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Among the most
unfortunate developments during NATO's first 50 years has been the
occasional use of chemical and biological weapons by rogue states and
terrorists, and the continued desire of nations to possess and test
nuclear weapons. At the Washington Summit, our leaders agreed to
establish a center at NATO to address WMD proliferation. Through the
center, Allies will share information on WMD threats. They will also
undertake exercises and preparations so as to be ready to react to a
WMD attack or accident on their territory. Current plans are to
enhance our cooperation with Russia on controlling the proliferation
of WMD elsewhere -- surely a turn-around from the time when NATO and
Russia were on opposite sides of every key military question.

So that's a brief prospectus on the 21st century NATO. I hope you
agree that, if we were selling shares, the Alliance represents an
excellent investment for the future. Indeed, one of the main reasons
all of you are here in Europe is the security and stability that NATO
has provided over the past 50 years. The reinvention of NATO is aimed
at providing that same security and stability to an ever-wider
Euro-Atlantic community of democratic nations. You might say that
stability in the Euro-Atlantic area is NATO's "bottom line." As long
as we continue to deliver on our bottom line, you will be positioned
to deliver on yours.

(end text)