DATE=12/7/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA / BELARUS
NUMBER=5-44920
BYLINE=EVE CONANT
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=

VOICED AT:


INTRO:  Russia and Belarus are expected to sign a 
"Union Treaty" Wednesday, laying the foundation for a 
future merger of the two former Soviet states.  (The 
treaty was first due to be signed late November, but 
was postponed after Russian President Boris Yeltsin 
fell ill.)  The union concept has wide support in both 
countries, despite resistance from nationalists in 
Belarus and liberals in Moscow.  Correspondent Eve 
Conant reports the treaty is seen by many as a 
symbolic step linked to Russia's parliamentary and 
presidential elections.

TEXT:  Leaders of both Russia and Belarus have 
heralded the union as the dawn of a new era of closer 
relations between the two countries.  The signing will 
be a long-awaited victory for Belarus President 
Alexander Lukashenko.  For several years the 
authoritarian leader has called for closer economic 
and diplomatic ties with Russia. 

The treaty calls for the two states to retain their 
sovereignty, but form a confederation governed by 
officials from both countries.  It also calls for a 
single currency, uniform tax, and border laws and 
harmonized legislature by the year 2005.

But Andrei Kortunov, President of the Moscow Public 
Science Foundation, says the treaty signing is more of 
a political ploy than an economic pledge.
 
            /// ACT KORTUNOV ///

      The elections are coming, and of course there is 
      not much to demonstrate in terms of the economy 
      or in terms of political developments in the 
      country.  Nationalism is becoming more popular.  
      For the people sitting in the Kremlin right now, 
      it is a kind of cheap way to get more 
      popularity.

            /// END ACT ///

Mr. Kortunov adds that while the treaty is popular 
among average Russians, others fear that welcoming the 
authoritarian Mr. Lukashenko into Russian politics 
could be dangerous. 

The coordinator of the Moscow branch of the Heritage 
Foundation, Yevgeny Volk, explains that for the west 
and for many Russian liberals, joining with Belarus is 
considered a step backward.

            /// ACT VOLK ///

      In fact it is a demonstration by Russia that it 
      is not going to obey the West, it is not going 
      to integrate into Western structures.  It is 
      going to develop an alliance with a state which 
      is believed by many to be a rouge state where 
      human rights are abused, and where there is no 
      freedom of expression.

            /// END ACT ///

The Nationalist opposition in Belarus also opposes the 
treaty.  In November, several-thousand protestors in 
the capital Minsk demonstrated against the union.  
Opposition leaders liken the union to the occupation 
of Belarus by Russia, and say it could give President 
Lukashenko even more sweeping powers.

Analyst Volk says the Belarussian economy is so 
backward that any union would put a further drain on 
Russia's already shaky finances.

            /// SECOND ACT VOLK ///

      The Belarussian economy is the same socialist 
      economy which existed 10-years ago with the 
      Soviet Union.  There was no actual 
      privatization, no reforms.  The Belarus economy 
      is surviving a very deep and comprehensive 
      crisis, and the burden of that survival will be 
      laid on Russia.

            /// END ACT ///

            /// OPT ///

But many average Russians say they support the union. 
For elderly people such as Lyubov Yermakova, the idea 
of uniting the two states feeds a nostalgia for a 
stable Soviet past.

    /// ACT YERMAKOVA IN RUSSIAN AND FADE UNDER ///

She says I am happy about it, everyone should unite as 
they did in Soviet times - we will be stronger that 
way.

But a man on the street says Belarus is too poor to 
join with Russia. 

    /// ACT MAN IN RUSSIAN IN FULL AND FADE UNDER ///

He says Belarus will just be begging us for bread - 
Russia should exist on its own.

            /// END OPT ///

Other opponents of the agreement say it could allow 
Belarussian leader Lukashenko to run for president of 
the merged states, or serve as a pretext for Russian 
President Boris Yeltsin to remain in power.  But for 
now, most analysts expect little will change.  They 
say the treaty is more symbolism than meaning, 
representing a show of strength rather than economic 
improvement.   (SIGNED)

NEB/EC/GE/ENE/RAE



07-Dec-1999 11:48 AM EDT (07-Dec-1999 1648 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.