DATE=10/03/98 TYPE=ON THE LINE NUMBER=1-00675 TITLE=CAN DEMOCRACY DEVELOP IN CHINA? EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037 CONTENT= THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK, "CAN DEMOCRACY DEVELOP IN CHINA?" HERE IS YOUR HOST, ROBERT REILLY. HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. OVER THE PAST DECADE, CHINA HAS MADE GREAT ECONOMIC PROGRESS AND THE COMMUNIST PARTY HAS LOOSENED ITS ABSOLUTE CONTROL OVER PEOPLE'S LIVES. AT THE RECENT 15TH COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS, CHINESE PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN CALLED FOR FURTHER REFORMS, INCLUDING MULTIPLE FORMS OF OWNERSHIP AND A SMALLER STATE SECTOR. THIS HAS LED MANY PEOPLE TO EXPECT THAT ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A MORE LAW-BASED SOCIETY WITH POLITICAL FREEDOMS. YET RECENT ATTEMPTS BY CHINESE DISSIDENTS TO REGISTER A NEW POLITICAL PARTY AND TO QUALIFY AS INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES IN LOCAL ELECTIONS HAVE MET WITH RESISTANCE. JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA ARE THREE EXPERTS. CHARLES HORNER IS SENIOR FELLOW AT THE HUDSON INSTITUTE AND A FORMER ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF THE U.S. INFORMATION AGENCY. HARRY WU IS A FORMER POLITICAL PRISONER FROM CHINA. HE IS NOW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE LAOGAI RESEARCH FOUNDATION, WHICH IS DEDICATED TO DOCUMENTING THE FORCED LABOR SYSTEM IN CHINA. AND STEPHEN YATES IS CHINA POLICY ANALYST AT THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION. WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. CHARLES HORNER, HOW DO YOU READ THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THESE RECENT ACTIVITIES IN CHINA THAT I JUST MENTIONED -- THE ATTEMPT TO REGISTER A POLITICAL PARTY AND THE RESPONSE OF THE GOVERNMENT? HORNER: THERE SEEMS TO BE QUITE A LOT GOING ON AT THE VARIOUS ENDS OF THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE IN CHINA. I THINK THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT THERE'S BEEN RENEWED ACTIVITY ON THE PART OF MANY HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS, IN PART, ENCOURAGED BY THE GREATER INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION, THE VISIT OF THE U-N COMMISSIONER ON HUMAN RIGHTS, MRS. [MARY] ROBINSON AND OTHERS. CHINA'S ANNOUNCEMENT THAT IT WANTS TO ADHERE TO SOME OF THESE INTERNATIONAL COVENANTS HAS BEEN VERY ENCOURAGING TO PEOPLE ON THE SCENE. AND THERE MAY BE SOME REASON TO BELIEVE THAT AT THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM, THERE'S AT LEAST A NEW OPENNESS TO THE IDEA, NOT SO MUCH OF POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION AS WE WOULD CALL IT, BUT TO THE IDEA THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE SOME CHANGE, SOME GREATER RATIONALITY IN THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY TO DEAL WITH WHAT IS NOW A MORE COMPLICATED SOCIETY WITH MUCH MORE COMPLEX RELATIONS INSIDE THE COUNTRY AND WITH OTHER COUNTRIES. HOST: HARRY WU, WHAT IS YOUR ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION? WU: I THINK CHINA TODAY IS IN A VERY CRITICAL SITUATION. IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, MAYBE SOMETHING COULD HAPPEN IN CHINA. HOST: WHAT IS CRITICAL ABOUT THIS SITUATION? WU: CRITICAL MEANS THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS BEING LED BY A CAPITALIST SYSTEM, BUT THE SOCIALIST SYSTEM IS THE BASE OF THE COMMUNIST REGIME. AND THE PEOPLE TODAY DON'T TRUST COMMUNISTS. PARTICULARLY RECENTLY, THERE'S A PROBLEM AS JIANG ZEMIN AND ZHU RONGJI TRY TO STOP THE MILITARY FROM DOING BUSINESS. THAT COULD BECOME A VERY SERIOUS INTERNAL STRUGGLE PROBLEM. AND I WANT TO SAY THAT NOBODY PREDICTED THAT THE BERLIN WALL WOULD PEACEFULLY COME DOWN, BUT IT DID. AND IN CHINA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS, YOU WILL SEE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES. THE TIME IS COMING. HOST: AND POSSIBLY PEACEFUL CHANGE? WU: I DON'T KNOW. IT'S DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. HOST: STEPHEN YATES, WHAT IS YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION? YATES: I THINK FOR DEMOCRACY TO BE SUSTAINABLE IN CHINA, IT NEEDS TO OPEN UP GRADUALLY OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. I THINK THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED AWARENESS OF MANY CHINESE PEOPLE OF WHAT DEMOCRACY CAN DO. TAIWAN BUSINESS PEOPLE AND TOURISTS HAVE GONE TO MANY PLACES INSIDE OF CHINA. THERE'S MORE INFORMATION GETTING IN. PEOPLE KNOW SOME OF THEIR OPTIONS. AND SO I THINK THAT THE IDEAS THAT WILL BE THE BEDROCK OF A DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION ARE THERE. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. BUT I THINK THERE'S ALSO A GREAT RESISTANCE TO LOSING POWER. AND SO AS LONG AS THE DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENTS AT THE VILLAGE LEVEL HELP SHARE THE BLAME FOR SOME OF THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS THAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE FACING WHILE THEY REFORM ALL PARTS OF THEIR ECONOMY, THEY'LL SHARE THAT LOW LEVEL. BUT I THINK THE SHIFT UP HIGHER AND HIGHER IS GOING TO TAKE A VERY LONG TIME. I AGREE WITH HARRY, THOUGH, THAT THE STAKES ARE VERY HIGH OVER THE NEAR TERM. THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IS GOING TO BE PAINFUL. MANY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO LOSE WORK. CAN THE GOVERNMENT DEAL WITH DISLOCATION IN SOCIETY IN AN EFFECTIVE WAY. IN A DEMOCRACY, YOU CAN BECAUSE ONE REGIME CAN BE VOTED OUT FOR AN ALTERNATIVE. IN AN AUTHORITARIAN GOVERNMENT LIKE WE SAW IN INDONESIA, WHEN YOU CAN'T VOTE AN INCOMPETENT REGIME OUT, IT COULD LEAD TO VIOLENCE OF SOME KIND IN THE STREETS. HOST: DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT, CHARLES HORNER? HORNER: I THINK ONE OF THE IMPORTANT DECISIONS THAT'S GOING TO BE MADE BY PEOPLE IN CHINA IS HOW YOU ACCOUNT FOR, EXPLAIN AND, AS IT WERE, WHO GETS BLAMED FOR THE ANCILLARY PROBLEMS THAT HAVE COME ABOUT AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID MODERNIZATION ECONOMICALLY, AND HOW DO YOU DEAL WITH IT? IT'S BEEN A WONDERFUL THING FOR MANY HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF CHINESE PEOPLE, BUT THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ENORMOUS PROBLEMS, LOTS OF UPSET, LOTS OF CORRUPTION, LOTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE, ALL OF THESE KINDS OF THINGS. SO THE QUESTION IS, HOW IS THE POLITY AS A WHOLE, THE WHOLE SYSTEM GOING TO RESPOND? IS IT GOING TO SAY THAT IT NEEDS TO REVERT TO A MORE AUTHORITARIAN SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH THIS KIND OF THING? OR IS IT GOING TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS SOCIETY NEEDS NOW TO MOVE TO THE NEXT STAGE OF REFORM? AND ONE HOPES THAT JIANG ZEMIN MIGHT DECIDE THAT THAT'S THE LEGACY HE WANTS TO LEAVE TO THE COUNTRY, IN A WAY THAT DENG XIAOPING'S ECONOMIC REFORMS BECAME VERY IMPORTANT ALSO. BUT I THINK THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. AND, IN THAT SENSE, HARRY IS QUITE RIGHT. THIS COMING PERIOD COULD BE VERY CRITICAL INDEED. WU: I'LL JUST SAY DEMOCRACY, OF COURSE, IS THERE FOR THE CHINESE. BUT MAYBE I JUST AGREE WITH STEPHEN THAT IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DECADES, MAYBE A COUPLE OF GENERATIONS. THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM IS FINISHED IN CHINA. IT DOESN'T MEAN CHINA WILL, RIGHT AWAY, TURN INTO A DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY. OF COURSE, THE COMMUNISTS ARE FIGHTING TO SURVIVE AND THEY ARE USING ALL KINDS OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR THEIR POLITICAL ALLEGATIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, IF SOMETHING HAPPENS INTERNALLY IN THE PARTY OR GOVERNMENT SYSTEM OR IN THE NATION, THEY CAN USE THE TAIWAN ISSUE TO CREATE ANOTHER DIPLOMATIC AND CIVIL WAR ISSUE TO COVER THEIR OWN PROBLEMS. TODAY, THEY STILL SUPPORT NORTH KOREA. NORTH KOREA IS A BIG CARD FOR THEM. THEY ALSO SUPPORT IRAQ. IF SOMETHING HAPPENED IN HONG KONG THAT CAUSES A PROBLEM, THE WHOLE ECONOMIC SYSTEM WOULD COLLAPSE. THE AUTHORITIES WILL NEVER VOLUNTARILY GIVE UP. HOST: ON THE OTHER HAND, MENTIONING HONG KONG RAISES AN INTERESTING QUESTION. I THINK THE CHINESE WERE TOLD THAT THE ASSIMILATION OF HONG KONG WAS GOING TO BE MORE OR LESS A LITMUS TEST FOR THE WEST TO SEE WHETHER THEY WERE CAPABLE OF KEEPING THEIR WORD OF ONE CHINA, TWO SYSTEMS. HAVE THEY KEPT THEIR WORD? HOW IS THAT WORKING OUT? YATES: I DON'T THINK THERE'S BEEN ANY CLEAR BREACH OF THE CONTRACT, IN TERMS OF POLITICALLY HAVING GROSS INTERFERENCE IN HONG KONG'S OWN SYSTEM. AND I DON'T THINK THERE'S BEEN A GROSS INTERFERENCE BY HONG KONG IN CHINA'S POLITICAL SYSTEM. THEY ARE DEEPLY INTERLINKED, CULTURALLY, ECONOMICALLY AND IN MANY OTHER IMPORTANT WAYS. SO IT'S NOT AS IF THERE IS A WALL THAT INSULATES ONE COMPLETELY FROM THE OTHER. BUT IN TERMS OF THE LETTER OF THE AGREEMENTS, THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY VIOLATION OF THE LETTER. NOW, SOME WOULD SAY IN SPIRIT, THERE ARE OTHER WAYS OF EXERTING INFLUENCE INSIDE OF HONG KONG, RATHER THAN GOING IN AND PUTTING YOUR OWN CANDIDATES UP FOR ELECTION OR SUBVERTING THE SYSTEM OF ELECTIONS IN HONG KONG. THAT KIND OF GROSS ACTION HASN'T OCCURRED YET. BUT SOME FEAR THAT IT MAY BE IN THE OFFING. HORNER: CHINA ALWAYS EXERTED A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE INSIDE HONG KONG EVEN BEFORE THEY TOOK OVER THE PLACE FORMALLY. BUT I THINK IT HAS BEEN FOR MANY PEOPLE WHO WERE ANXIOUS ABOUT IT, EVEN FOR MANY OF THE PEOPLE INSIDE HONG KONG, A RATHER PLEASANT SURPRISE, AT LEAST SO FAR. AS STEVE SAID, THE LETTER, AND A CERTAIN DEGREE OF THE SPIRIT OF THIS, HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. AND IT'S CERTAINLY A PECULIAR ARRANGEMENT BECAUSE AFTER ALL IT IS A SINGLE SOVEREIGNTY AND YOU HAVE THESE RATHER DIVERGENT, AT LEAST PHILOSOPHICALLY INCOMPATIBLE SYSTEMS IN BEIJING AND IN HONG KONG WITH THE IDEA NOW THAT IN SOME MANNER, SHAPE OR FORM TAIWAN IN SOME WAY MAY YET COME TO BE INCLUDED OR AT LEAST AFFILIATED WITH IT IN SOME WAY. AND THAT, ITSELF, WOULD SEEM TO BE A SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING SIGN. AFTER ALL, ONE OF THE THINGS ONE WANTS FROM A REGIME IS TOLERANCE OF OTHER ARRANGEMENTS. BUT LET'S JUST REMEMBER THAT HONG KONG IS SIX AND A HALF MILLION PEOPLE. TAIWAN IS TWENTY-ODD MILLION AND CHINA PROPER ITSELF CONTAINS PERHAPS A BILLION, TWO HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE. SO WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT ANYTHING APPROXIMATING A BALANCE YET IN THE SYSTEMS. HOST: INTERESTINGLY, I THINK THAT THE HONG KONG MEDIA, WHICH REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE, ARE REACHING SOME FIFTY MILLION PEOPLE ON THE MAINLAND, WHO RECEIVE THOSE TELEVISION PROGRAMS UNINTERFERED WITH. YATES: THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT PEOPLE, THROUGH SATELLITE TELEVISION, THROUGH NEWS MEDIA, THROUGH THE INTERNET IN MOST PLACES -- SOME HAVE BLOCKED SITES -- BUT THROUGH MANY MEANS, PEOPLE GET AN INCREASED VARIETY OF WESTERN MEDIA. AND THEY CAN GET THEIR STORIES FROM THE OUTSIDE. BUT REALLY FOR A LONG TIME, I WONDER HOW MANY PEOPLE INSIDE OF CHINA HAVE BEEN FOOLED BY THE GOVERNMENT INTO BELIEVING THE MESSAGE, OR THEY WERE JUST WISE ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT IF THEY CROSSED THE GOVERNMENT THAT THEY WOULD BE HURT. AND SO I DON'T THINK THAT THERE'S A DESPERATE NEED FOR PEOPLE TO HEAR THE GOSPEL OF FREE MARKET DEMOCRACY, AS MUCH AS THEY REALLY NEED TO FIND A WAY TO EMPOWER THEMSELVES TO BE ABLE TO ENACT FREE MARKET DEMOCRACY. HOST: WHAT WE'RE SEEING, AT LEAST IN THIS ATTEMPT TO REGISTER THE CHINA DEMOCRACY PARTY OR ON THE PART OF INDIVIDUALS TO REGISTER THEMSELVES IN LOCAL ELECTIONS, IS A VERY BOLD THING TO HAVE UNDERTAKEN. I BELIEVE THEY FIRST TRIED IT WHEN PRESIDENT CLINTON WAS VISITING THERE AND THEY WERE LOCKED UP FOR THE PERIOD OF HIS VISIT. AND NOW WHEN, AS YOU MENTIONED, U-N HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS MARY ROBINSON VISITS, THEY TRIED IT AGAIN. AND IT SEEMED AT FIRST TO BE AT LEAST UNDER CONSIDERATION IN SOME PROVINCES. NOW THESE PEOPLE ARE UNDER HOUSE ARREST OR THEY'RE IN JAIL. YET A HUNDRED AND EIGHTY SOME DISSIDENTS HAVE SENT A LETTER TO PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN SAYING LET THEM GO. HORNER: BUT THE MATING DANCE HERE, IF WE CAN USE THAT PHRASE, IS A LOT MORE COMPLICATED THAN IT ONCE WAS. WE ALWAYS HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT SOME OF THESE THINGS TWENTY YEARS AGO WOULD HAVE BEEN TOTALLY UNIMAGINABLE. SO I THINK THAT WE MAY BE ON A CERTAIN GLIDE PATH. A VERY IMPORTANT THING FOR PEOPLE IN THE WEST TO UNDERSTAND IS WE NOW KNOW THE NAMES OF PEOPLE IN CHINA WHO ADVOCATE DEMOCRACY. WE KNOW THEIR NAMES. WE KNOW HOW TO GET IN TOUCH WITH THEM. THEY KNOW HOW TO GET IN TOUCH WITH US. AND IF BEGIN TO COMPARE WHAT HAPPENED IN THE SOVIET UNION WITH THE RISE OF THE DISSIDENT MOVEMENT, THOSE KINDS OF THINGS ARE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THAT YOU CROSS. HOST: HARRY WU. WU: ROBERT, YOU JUST MENTIONED THAT SOME PEOPLE IN CHINA WANT TO REGISTER AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT INDICATION IN CHINESE HISTORY SINCE 1949. FOR FORTY NINE YEARS, NO ONE DARED TO CHALLENGE THE COMMUNIST PARTY. EVEN LATER IT WOULD NOT HAPPEN. BUT, ANYWAY, THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT INDICATION. HOST: AND ARE YOU ENCOURAGED BY IT? WU: OF COURSE I'M ENCOURAGED BY IT BECAUSE THIS IS AN HISTORICAL CHANGE. BUT I WANT TO SUGGEST THAT WE HIGHLY PAY ATTENTION TO THE OTHER ISSUE. I THINK THIS ISSUE IS MORE IMPORTANT. WHEN ZIANG ZEMIN AND ZHU RONGJI, A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, ASKED THE MILITARY AND SECURITY NOT TO DO BUSINESS, THAT CAUSED A BIG INTERNAL PROBLEM. IF THE MILITARY WITHDRAWS SUPPORT FROM ZIANG ZEMIN AND ZHU RONGJI, THAT BECOMES A VERY SERIOUS POWER STRUGGLE. TODAY, THE MILITARY BUSINESSES GAIN ABOUT TEN BILLION IN PROFIT. IT'S EQUAL TO THE DEFENSE BUDGET. YOU WANT TO CUT IT OFF? HOST: I THINK HE GAVE HIM SEVERAL YEARS TO GET THE MILITARY OUT OF BUSINESS. WU: TWENTY THOUSAND BUSINESSES AND TWO THOUSAND OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY. HORNER: THERE'S ALSO A CERTAIN ELEMENT IN THE MILITARY, IN THINKING ABOUT THE PROFESSIONALIZATION AND THE MODERNIZATION OF THE CHINESE MILITARY, THAT'S GOING TO BE CALLED FOR, WHICH UNDERSTANDS THAT THIS KIND OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND THE CORRUPTION AND LET US JUST SAY INATTENTION IS NOT GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MILITARY POWER. IT'S AS IF SOMEHOW OUR SENIOR GENERALS HERE WERE RUNNING HOTEL CHAINS AND DOING OTHER THINGS. I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE AN IMPORTANT STRUGGLE INSIDE THE MILITARY AMONG THOSE WHO ARE MORE MODERN MINDED AND WANT TO HAVE MODERNIZATION, AND, IRONICALLY, THOSE OF US OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY CONCERNED BY THE FUTURE DIRECTION OF CHINESE MILITARY POWER, WHO MIGHT WONDER WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE, IN THE LONG RUN, BETTER OFF HAVING THESE FOLKS IN THE HOTEL BUSINESS RATHER THAN HAVING THEM MORE SERIOUSLY INVOLVED IN MODERNIZING THE ARMED FORCES OF CHINA. YATES: THE FACT IS, I THINK THIS EXPOSED AN UNDERLYING WEAKNESS IN CHINA'S MILITARY THAT'S EXISTED FOR A LONG TIME. WHAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN DOING IS TURNING A BLIND EYE TO THESE ACTIVITIES BECAUSE THEY CAN'T AFFORD TO PAY THE WAGES FOR THIS BLOATED MILITARY. THEY HAVE TO DOWNSIZE SIGNIFICANTLY. AND THEY HAVE TO EMPHASIZE TRAINING ON THE CORE GROUP THAT THEY KEEP, IF THEY REALLY WANT TO HAVE THE DREAM OF THIS MIGHTY MODERN MILITARY THAT THEY HAVE. AND IT IS AN OPEN QUESTION TODAY IN CHINESE POLITICS HOW MUCH POWER THE MILITARY HAS. IN THE PAST IT'S JUST BEEN A DICTUM OF CHINA STUDIES THAT THE MILITARY IS THE KEY DETERMINANT OF WHO HOLDS POWER INSIDE OF CHINA. AND TODAY PEOPLE ARE QUESTIONING THAT. BUT I THINK WE'RE AT THE STAGE OF QUESTIONING THE MILITARY'S ROLE. IT'S KIND OF WHAT HARRY WAS TALKING ABOUT. WE'RE AT THIS STAGE WHERE WE'VE GOT A PARTY READY TO TRY TO REGISTER. THAT DOESN'T MEAN DEMOCRACY IS HERE, BUT IT'S REALLY A FIRST TIME WE'RE HAVING THIS BIG PROFOUND QUESTION RAISED. HOST: CHINA HAS AGREED TO SIGN THE INTERNATIONAL COVENANT ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL RIGHTS. IS THAT IMPORTANT? HORNER: IT'S IMPORTANT TO THIS EXTENT. FIRST OF ALL, THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT DOES PAY A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF ATTENTION TO CEREMONY AND PRONOUNCEMENT, AND SO ON. AND THE FACT THAT THE FOREIGN MINISTER OF CHINA WOULD GO BEFORE THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY AND SAY THAT THEY WERE GOING TO DO THIS AND ANNOUNCE, I BELIEVE IT'S IN OCTOBER, THAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO IT. THEY HAVE OTHER AGREEMENTS THAT THEY'VE SIGNED WHICH THEY CLAIM THEY'RE GOING TO RATIFY. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT IS THAT IT INVOLVES THEM NOW IN A DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS WITH THE WHOLE WORLD, AND NOT JUST THE UNITED STATES OR NATO OR ANY OTHER GROUP OF COUNTRIES. BUT AFTER ALL, IT IS A UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS. AND EVERYONE THEREFORE NOW HAS A PLAUSIBLE REASON TO QUERY THE CHINESE ABOUT IMPLEMENTATION IN PRACTICE. SO IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE A DIVISIVE ISSUE. HOST: WHICH LEADS YOU TO ASK THE QUESTION WHY WOULD THEY AGREE TO SIGN IT, HARRY WU? WU: I THINK THIS IS ANOTHER INDICATION THAT TELLS US THAT THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM IN CHINA IS WEAKENING. THEY HAVE TO WITHDRAW A FEW INCHES, TO BACK UP A FEW INCHES AND PLAY THE GAME. IN THE CHINESE CONSTITUTION, THEY ALREADY HAVE THAT KIND OF ARTICLE -- FREEDOM OF ASSOCIATION, FREEDOM OF RELIGION, FREEDOM OF SPEECH -- ALL THE TIME, SINCE 1949. TO SIGN SUCH TINGS HAS NO REAL MEANING BUT IT'S A SIGNIFICANT INDICATION. IT MEANS THEY HAVE TO BACK UP. HOST: HARRY WU, I WANTED TO ASK YOU BECAUSE YOU IN YOUR LAOGAI FOUNDATON PAY SUCH CLOSE ATTENTION TO FORCED LABOR, SLAVE LABOR IN CHINA. HAVE YOU NOTICED ANY CHANGE IN THAT DIRECTION? ALL THE ATTENTION THAT THAT SUBJECT HAS RECEIVED. HAVE THE CHINESE RESPONDED IN ANY POSITIVE WAY OR DO THEY CONTINUE TO DENY IT EXISTS? WU: BASICALLY, I THINK EVERYBODY AGREES THAT THE DICTATORS CANNOT SURVIVE WITHOUT THE SUPPRESSION MACHINE. STALIN CANNOT SURVIVE WITHOUT THE GULAG. IF YOU MAINTAIN A COMMUNIST TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM, YOU NEED THE KIND OF SYSTEM TO KEEP THE PEOPLE QUIET. SO THE LAOGAI IS PLAYED IN THIS WAY. TODAY, MANY PEOPLE IN JAIL ARE KIND OF ECONOMIC CRIMINALS OR SOME KIND OF PENAL CRIMINALS. BUT IN THE MAIN, MANY PEOPLE REMAIN IN JAIL AS COUNTER-REVOLUTIONARIES. HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- CHARLES HORNER FROM THE HUDSON INSTITUTE; HARRY WU FROM THE LAOGAI RESEARCH FOUNDATION; AND STEPHEN YATES FROM THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION -- FOR JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE. 02-Oct-98 1:59 PM EDT (1759 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .