DATE=3/18/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42889 TITLE=MISSILE DEFENSE/ U-S & CHINA BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: WHEN CHINESE PRIME MINISTER ZHU RONGJI COMES TO WASHINGTON NEXT MONTH HE IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT BEIJING'S STRONG OPPOSITION TO U-S PLANS FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEMS. (OPT) THE PROPOSAL FOR A NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM RECEIVED CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL THIS WEEK. (END OPT) V-O-A'S STEPHANIE MANN DISCUSSED CHINA'S OBJECTIONS TO THE ASIAN PLAN WITH AMERICAN SECURITY SPECIALISTS AND HAS THIS REPORT. TEXT: THE UNITED STATES IS CONSULTING WITH ITS ASIAN ALLIES -- JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA -- ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPLEMENTING A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR EAST ASIA. THE PURPOSE WOULD BE TO TRACK AND DESTROY ANY MISSILES THAT MIGHT BE LAUNCHED AGAINST U-S TARGETS OR AMERICAN ALLIES. THE PLAN WOULD INVOLVE TWO LEVELS OF ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE. ONE FOR LOCAL AREAS WOULD OPERATE INSIDE THE ATMOSPHERE, USING PATRIOT MISSILES. AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL OPERATION WOULD USE WHAT IS CALLED "THAAD," OR THEATER HIGH ALTITUDE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS. CHINA, NORTH KOREA AND RUSSIA HAVE CRITICIZED THE PLAN. THE MOST OUTSPOKEN ATTACKS HAVE COME FROM CHINA. DEFENSE POLICY RESEARCHER BRUCE BENNETT DISMISSES CHINA'S CONCERN THAT IT WOULD BE THE TARGET OF THE ANTI-MISSILE PROGRAM. // BENNETT ACT ONE // THE KIND OF MISSILE THAT'S PLANNED FOR DEFENSIVE PURPOSES IS NOT INTENDED TO BE USED OFFENSIVELY. THAT IS, A PATRIOT OR A "THAAD" SYSTEM IS NOT INTENDED TO FIRE AT CHINA AND HURT CHINA. IT'S SIMPLY INTENDED TO FIRE AT CHINESE MISSILES AND STOP THEM FROM HURTING THE COUNTRY THEY'RE AIMED AT. // END ACT // MR. BENNETT IS A SPECIALIST IN COUNTER PROLIFERATION AND FORCE IMPROVEMENT AT THE RAND CORPORATION DEFENSE RESEARCH FIRM IN CALIFORNIA. EVEN THOUGH THE THEATER ANTI-MISSILE PROGRAM WOULD NOT BE AIMED AT ANY PARTICULAR COUNTRY, MR. BENNETT SAYS PEOPLE IN THE REGION SEE THE NEED BECAUSE OF THE ACTIONS OF PARTICULAR COUNTRIES. // BENNETT ACT TWO // FROM A TAIWANESE OR A JAPANESE PERSPECTIVE, ABSOLUTELY THESE SYSTEMS ARE WARRANTED. THEY'RE THE ONLY FORM OF DEFENSE, OR THE PRIMARY FORM OF DEFENSE, THEY WOULD HAVE AGAINST THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BALLISTIC MISSILE CAPABILITIES THAT CHINA IS FIELDING. // END ACT // ANOTHER ANALYST, STEPHEN YATES, SAYS IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL THREAT POSED BY CHINA, NORTH KOREA IS THE HIGHEST PRIORITY THREAT TO PEOPLE IN EAST ASIA. HE POINTS TO NORTH KOREA'S LAUNCH LAST YEAR OF A ROCKET OVER JAPANESE TERRITORY. MR. YATES, WHO IS WITH THE ASIAN STUDIES CENTER OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION, CHALLENGES CHINA'S CRITICISM THAT A THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM WOULD BE A THREAT TO REGIONAL STABILITY. CHINA HAS SAID IF TAIWAN WERE INCLUDED IN THE ANTI-MISSILE PLAN, THAT WOULD BE AN INFRINGEMENT OF CHINESE SOVEREIGNTY. MR. YATES REPLIES THAT JAPAN, TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA HAVE A SOVEREIGN RIGHT TO BE ABLE TO DEFEND THEMSELVES AGAINST A MISSILE ATTACK. // YATES ACT ONE // THERE'S NOTHING ABOUT A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM THAT IS OFFENSIVE IN NATURE. THE ONLY THING THESE SYSTEMS CAN DO IS DESTROY INCOMING MISSILES. IF YOU DON'T LAUNCH THOSE MISSILES, THESE MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS DO NOTHING. IF YOU DON'T INTEND TO INVADE, HOW CAN YOU COMPLAIN THAT OTHER REGIONAL ACTORS ARE SPENDING THEIR MONEY ON A SYSTEM THEY WON'T NEED? REALLY, I THINK THERE IS NO BASIS FOR THIS COMPLAINT FROM THE CHINESE SIDE, AND IT'S JUST OLD RHETORIC THAT IS COMING UP AND NEEDS TO BE RESPONDED TO. // END ACT // /// OPT /// ANOTHER CHINESE CRITICISM OF THE PROPOSED THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE PLAN IS THAT IT WOULD SPREAD MISSILE TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER COUNTRIES AND VIOLATE NON-PROLIFERATION AGREEMENTS. MR. YATES DISMISSES THAT CHARGE, TOO. // YATES ACT TWO // // OPT ACT // IN TERMS OF MISSILE DEFENSE VIOLATING THE KIND OF PROLIFERATION STANDARDS BY HAVING TO SHARE MISSILE TECHNOLOGY, THE ONLY TECHNOLOGY THAT WOULD BE EXCHANGED IS THE TECHNOLOGY NECESSARY FOR DESTROYING A MISSILE, NOT FOR DEVELOPING A MISSILE. AND THERE PROBABLY WOULD BE AN EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION ON THE TRAJECTORY AND THE COMPOSITION OF DIFFERENT MISSILES, BUT I SUSPECT THAT GOES ON NOW AND THAT REALLY ISN'T A PROLIFERATION CONCERN. // END ACT // // END OPT ACT // STEPHEN YATES SAYS THE ONLY CHINESE ARGUMENT THAT MAY HAVE SOME LEGITIMACY IS THAT A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM MAY START AN ARMS RACE. HE EXPLAINS THAT MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS CAN BE EFFECTIVE AGAINST A LIMITED NUMBER OF MISSILES BUT CAN BE OVERWHELMED BY SIMULTANEOUS LAUNCHES OF MULTIPLE MISSILES. SO, HE SAYS, STRATEGIC COMPETITORS MAY BEGIN TO STOCKPILE HUGE NUMBERS OF MISSILES IN HOPES OF DEVELOPING AN ADVANTAGE OVER AN ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM. // REST OPTIONAL // WHEN CHINESE PRIME MINISTER ZHU RONGJI VISITS WASHINGTON IN EARLY APRIL, HE IS EXPECTED TO STRESS CHINA'S OPPOSITION TO THE MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM. MR. YATES SAYS THAT ISSUE AS WELL AS THE CURRENT CONTROVERSY OVER CHINESE ESPIONAGE AT A U-S NUCLEAR LABORATORY ARE LIKELY TO BE SENSITIVE TOPICS OF DISCUSSION BETWEEN MR. ZHU AND TOP U-S OFFICIALS. AND MR. YATES SAYS U-S CONCERN OVER THE ESPIONAGE CASE IS BOOSTING CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE MISSILE DEFENSE PROPOSAL. // YATES ACT THREE // I SUSPECT THAT THERE'S MORE OR LESS CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT CHINA'S MISSILE PROGRAM HAS BEEN IMPROVED BY THIS ESPIONAGE. AND REALLY THE APPROPRIATE RESPONSE IS NOT NECESSARILY TO SAY THAT CHINA IS EVIL BECAUSE IT CONDUCTS ESPIONAGE. THAT'S MORE OR LESS NORMAL BEHAVIOR IN THE WORLD. THE UNITED STATES CONDUCTS ESPIONAGE. MANY COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD, INCLUDING OUR ALLIES, CONDUCT ESPIONAGE AGAINST US. WITNESS THE RECENT CONTROVERSY OVER AN ISRAELI SPY. AND SO, THE APPROPRIATE RESPONSE IS TO SAY, 'OKAY, IF THIS TECHNOLOGY HAS BEEN RELEASED, OR HAS GONE OUT INTO THE WORLD, THE GOVERNMENT HAS AN ADDED RESPONSIBILITY TO DEFEND AGAINST ITS USE.' // END ACT // AND MR. YATES SAYS MISSILE DEFENSE IS THE APPROPRIATE RESPONSE TO LEAKS OF NUCLEAR INFORMATION THAT HELP OTHER COUNTRIES DEVELOP THEIR MISSILE TECHNOLOGY. (SIGNED) NEB/SMN/GE 18-Mar-99 12:13 PM EST (1713 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .