DATE=3/31/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42992 TITLE=ZHU RONGJI / THE MAN AND THE LEADER BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: // EDS NOTE: ZHU RONGJI IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE U-S APRIL 6-14, AND HAVE TALKS WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON ON 4/8. // INTRO: WHEN CHINESE LEADER ZHU RONGJI COMES TO THE UNITED STATES NEXT (THIS) WEEK, IT WON'T BE HIS FIRST TRIP HERE. BUT IT WILL BE HIS FIRST AS CHINA'S PRIME MINISTER AND WILL OFFER CHINESE AND AMERICANS THEIR FIRST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE HIM HOLDING TALKS AT THE WHITE HOUSE WITH A U-S PRESIDENT. IN THIS REPORT, V-O-A'S STEPHANIE MANN LOOKS AT ZHU RONGJI -- THE MAN AND THE LEADER. TEXT: IN CHINA, THE 70-YEAR OLD PRIME MINISTER IS KNOWN AS "THE BOSS" -- A NO-NONSENSE MAN WHO SPEAKS BLUNTLY AND GETS THINGS DONE. ABROAD, PRIME MINISTER ZHU RONGJI IS RESPECTED FOR HIS PLEDGE TO RESTRUCTURE CHINA'S ECONOMY. FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO BEIJING JAMES LILLEY HAS MET MR. ZHU ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AND DESCRIBES THE CHINESE PRIME MINISTER AS SMART AND URBANE. // LILLEY ACT // ZHU RONGJI'S A VERY ACCOMPLISHED, SOPHISTICATED MAN. HE'S TOUGH. HE'S SMART. HE'S ARTICULATE. HE CAN HANDLE THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE WELL. HE'S WELL-READ IN ENGLISH LITERATURE. HE HAS SOME VERY GOOD ADVISORS THAT WRITE HIS SCRIPTS FOR HIM. // END ACT // AMBASSADOR LILLEY SAYS MR. ZHU IS MOST CONFIDENT IN HANDLING ECONOMIC ISSUES. BEFORE HE BECAME PRIME MINISTER LAST MARCH, ZHU RONGJI WAS VICE PREMIER IN CHARGE OF THE ECONOMY. IN THAT JOB, MR. ZHU OVERSAW THE DEVALUATION OF CHINA'S CURRENCY IN 1994, IMPLEMENTED TAX REFORM, CUT INTEREST RATES AND DRAMATICALLY LOWERED INFLATION -- ALL WHILE KEEPING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE HIGH. NOW, AS PRIME MINISTER, HE HAS THE LEAD ROLE IN THE DIFFICULT TASK OF STREAMLINING CHINA'S BUREAUCRACY, DISMANTLING THE UNPROFITABLE STATE-OWNED INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, PRIVATIZING THE COUNTRY'S HOUSING, AND MOVING TOWARD A COMMERCIALLY VIABLE BANKING SYSTEM. ASIAN POLICY ANALYST DOUGLAS PAAL // BEGIN OPT // SAYS ZHU RONGJI WILL ENJOY THE SUPPORT OF CHINA'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP AS LONG AS HE IS ABLE TO ACHIEVE ECONOMIC SUCCESSES. // OPT PAAL ACT ONE // THE DOWNSIDE FOR HIM IS IF HIS COLLEAGUES DECIDE HE'S DISPENSABLE, IF THE ECONOMY DOESN'T TURN OVER, IF IT SPUTTERS THROUGH ANOTHER TWO OR THREE YEARS, IF LABOR UNREST BEGINS TO CHALLENGE THE AUTHORITY OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY, HE COULD BE A READY VICTIM OF A PALACE COUP IN AN EFFORT TO CHANGE THE REPUTATION OF THE LEADERSHIP WITH THE PEOPLE. I THINK HE'S GOT VULNERABILITIES RATHER THAN STRENGTHS IN THE PROSPECTS OF A DIFFICULT ECONOMY. // END ACT // MR. PAAL // END OPT // SAYS MR. ZHU IS VULNERABLE BECAUSE HE DOES NOT HAVE A BROAD BASE OF NATIONAL POLITICAL SUPPORT. THAT IS BECAUSE HE HAS WORKED IN THE BUREAUCRACY AS AN ECONOMIC PLANNER AND BECAUSE HIS POLITICAL EXPERIENCE WAS LIMITED TO SHANGHAI WHERE HE WAS MAYOR. // OPT // ZHU RONGJI RECEIVED A DEGREE IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING FROM BEIJING'S PRESTIGIOUS QINGHUA UNIVERSITY. HE HAS BEEN PURGED TWICE IN HIS CAREER -- FIRST IN 1958 FOR OPPOSING WHAT HE CALLED IRRATIONAL HIGH LEVEL GROWTH, AND AGAIN DURING THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION IN 1970. HE WAS FULLY REHABILITATED IN THE LATE 1970'S, AFTER THE DEATH OF CHAIRMAN MAO ZEDONG, THE ARREST OF THE GANG OF FOUR, AND THE RISE TO POWER OF DENG XIAOPING. // END OPT // MR. PAAL IS PRESIDENT OF THE ASIA PACIFIC POLICY CENTER, A WASHINGTON-BASED RESEARCH ORGANIZATION, AND WAS A FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR TO FORMER PRESIDENT BUSH. HE, TOO, HAS HAD VARIOUS ENCOUNTERS WITH MR. ZHU AND SAYS HE IS A PERSON OF ACTION WHO DOES NOT LET OPPOSITION GET IN HIS WAY. MR. PAAL SAYS ZHU RONGJI'S POLITICAL SAVVY WAS EVIDENT A DECADE AGO, WHEN HE WAS SHANGHAI MAYOR. // PAAL ACT TWO // IN 1989, WHEN THE TIANANMEN DEMONSTRATIONS WERE TAKING PLACE IN BEIJING, THERE WERE DEMONSTRATIONS IN SHANGHAI AS WELL. BUT HE MADE IT CLEAR TO THE PEOPLE, "LOOK, YOU CAN DEMONSTRATE. JUST GO HOME AT FIVE O'CLOCK." AND THEY DID. AND THEY NEVER HAD TO USE FORCE AND VIOLENCE IN SHANGHAI. THAT WAS ONE OF THE THINGS, I THINK, THAT APPEALED TO DENG XIAOPING WHEN HE WANTED TO BRING UP NEW LEADERS TO REPLACE (FORMER PARTY CHIEF) ZHAO ZIYANG AND OTHERS WHO FELL IN THE COURSE OF THE TIANANMEN EPISODE. // END ACT // BECAUSE OF HIS ABILITY TO HANDLE THE SHANGHAI DEMONSTRATORS IN 1989 AND HIS ECONOMIC REFORM POLICIES, SOME FOREIGNERS MAY THINK MR. ZHU IS POLITICALLY LIBERAL. THAT IS A MISTAKE, SAYS MR. PAAL, WHO DESCRIBES ZHU RONGJI AS AN AUTHORITARIAN WHO BELIEVES IN THE DOMINANCE OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY. THE WASHINGTON DIRECTOR OF HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH-ASIA, MIKE JENDRZEJCZYK (JEN DREE ZIK) AGREES. MR. JENDRZEJCZYK POINTS TO A RECENT SPEECH BY PRIME MINISTER ZHU IN WHICH HE STRESSED THE NEED TO PREVENT ANY ATTEMPTS AT SUBVERSION. // JENDRZEJCZYK ACT // I THINK HE VERY MUCH RECOGNIZES THAT THERE IS GROWING MOMENTUM WITHIN CHINA FOR SPEEDING UP OF ECONOMIC REFORMS AND FOR POLITICAL REFORMS. BUT THUS FAR HE SEEMS TO BE VERY MUCH TOWING THE PARTY LINE, WHICH IS THAT THE COMMUNIST PARTY HAS TO MAINTAIN ITS MONOPOLY OVER POWER. THAT'S THE FIRST PRIORITY. // END ACT MR. JENDRZEJCZYK SAYS PRIME MINISTER ZHU AND OTHER CHINESE LEADERS WANT TO MAKE SURE LAID-OFF WORKERS AND PEOPLE UPSET OVER CORRUPTION AND HIGH TAXES DO NOT JOIN FORCES WITH POLITICAL ACTIVISTS AND CAUSE SOCIAL UNREST TO SPREAD. REGARDING MR. ZHU'S VISIT TO THE UNITED STATES, DOUGLAS PAAL SAYS THE CHINESE LEADER WILL BE ABLE TO SHOW IT AS A GREAT SUCCESS IF HE GETS WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION MEMBERSHIP FOR CHINA. BUT IF THAT POSITIVE RESULT IS NOT FORTHCOMING, MR. PAAL SAYS PRIME MINISTER ZHU MAY DECIDE TO SOUND VERY TOUGH -- IN HIS WORDS, GO NEGATIVE -- ON THE ISSUES WHERE CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENCES, SUCH AS TAIWAN, NATO INTERVENTION IN KOSOVO, AND ALLEGATIONS OF CHINESE SPYING AT U-S NUCLEAR LABORATORIES. MR. PAAL SAYS PRIME MINISTER ZHU MAY SOUND TOUGH, BUT HIS PERSONAL CHARM IS LIKELY TO WIN SOME SUPPORTERS AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY USEFUL IF HE MEETS SOME SKEPTICAL MEMBERS OF CONGRESS. // PAAL ACT THREE // IT'S PARTLY THE SENSE OF HUMOR. IT'S PARTLY THE SMILE. IT'S PARTLY THE DIRECTNESS. IT'S PARTLY JUST HIS APPEARANCE, BUT HE'S GOT A REAL CHARM. WHEN HE CAME LEADING A MAYOR'S DELEGATION AFTER TIANANMEN, IT WAS THE FIRST RELATIVELY SENIOR GROUP OF CHINESE OFFICIALS TO COME TO THE UNITED STATES, AND THE ATMOSPHERE, OF COURSE, WAS MUCH WORSE THEN THAN IT WILL BE DURING HIS UPCOMING VISIT. AND HE DISARMED HIS CRITICS WITH WIT AND HIS OWN STRONG PERSONALITY. I THINK THAT'S A REAL PLUS FOR CHINA. // END ACT // AMBASSADOR JAMES LILLEY SAYS ZHU RONGJI IS DETERMINED TO PUT THE U-S/CHINA RELATIONSHIP BACK ON TRACK, AND HE PREDICTS MR. ZHU IS LIKELY TO MAKE A FAIRLY GOOD IMPRESSION. (SIGNED) NEB/SMN/KL 31-Mar-99 11:25 AM EST (1625 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .