DATE=4/14/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-43107 TITLE=CHINA / TAIWAN BYLINE=STEPHANIE HO DATELINE=BEIJING CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: AT THE HEART OF RELATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA IS THE ISSUE OF TAIWAN -- AN ISLAND BEIJING REGARDS AS A RENEGADE PROVINCE. V-O-A'S STEPHANIE HO REPORTS WASHINGTON IS STILL SEEN AS TAIWAN'S BIGGEST PROTECTOR -- EVEN THOUGH IN 1979, WASHINGTON SWITCHED FORMAL RECOGNITION FROM THE NATIONALIST GOVERNMENT IN TAIPEI TO THE COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT IN BEIJING. TEXT: THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT HAS REPEATEDLY EMPHASIZED THAT TAIWAN IS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE IN ITS RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES. DURING HIS RECENT NEWS CONFERENCE WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON IN WASHINGTON, CHINESE PREMIER ZHU RONGJI SAID BEIJING HOPES FOR A PEACEFUL REUNIFICATION WITH THE ISLAND, BUT WILL NOT RENOUNCE THE USE OF FORCE. // ZHU AND INTERPRETER ACT // BECAUSE IF WE WERE TO MAKE SUCH A PLEDGE, MAKE SUCH AN UNDERTAKING, THEN I'M AFRAID TAIWAN WOULD BE IN A PERPETUAL STATE OF SEPARATION FROM THE MOTHERLAND. // END ACT // MR. ZHU COMPARED CHINA'S CLAIM TO TAIWAN TO PRESIDENT ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S STANCE DURING THE U-S CIVIL WAR, WHEN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WAS FORCEFULLY PREVENTED FROM SECEDING. // ZHU AND INTERPRETER ACT // ABRAHAM LINCOLN, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE UNITY OF THE UNITED STATES AND OPPOSE INDEPENDENCE OF THE SOUTHERN PART, HE HAD RESORTED TO USE OF FORCE AND FOUGHT A WAR FOR THAT, FOR MAINTAINING THE UNITY OF THE UNITED STATES. // END ACT // PRESIDENT CLINTON COUNTERED, SAYING THE EVENTS LEADING UP TO THE U-S CIVIL WAR WERE DIFFERENT THAN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA AND TAIWAN. HE RE-AFFIRMED THE U-S POLICY OF ONLY RECOGNIZING ONE-CHINA, WITH ITS GOVERNMENT IN BEIJING, BUT ADDED THAT THREATS OF FORCE FROM CHINA ARE NOT ACCEPTABLE. // CLINTON ACT // WE BELIEVE THAT THIS MATTER SHOULD BE RESOLVED PEACEFULLY. // END ACT // CHINA'S THREAT TO USE FORCE TO TAKE BACK TAIWAN IS AN ISSUE THAT IS TAKING ON NEW RELEVANCE, THOUGH, WITH REPORTS THAT THE CHINESE MILITARY IS INCREASING THE NUMBER OF BALLISTIC MISSILES IN FUJIAN PROVINCE ACROSS THE WATER FROM THE ISLAND. CHINESE OFFICIALS REPEATEDLY DENY THESE REPORTS. AT THE SAME TIME, CHINA HAS SAID A U-S-JAPANESE PROPOSAL FOR A THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM, OR T-M-D, SHOULD NOT INCLUDE TAIWAN BECAUSE BEIJING CONSIDERS THE ISLAND PART OF CHINESE TERRITORY. PROFESSOR DAVID SHAMBAUGH, DIRECTOR OF THE CHINA POLICY PROGRAM AT GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY, SAYS A T-M-D SYSTEM THAT INCLUDES TAIWAN, COULD NOT ONLY SPARK A CROSS-STRAIT ARMS RACE, BUT WOULD UNDERMINE WASHINGTON'S RELATIONSHIP WITH BEIJING. // SHAMBAUGH ACT // WHY? BECAUSE IT WOULD CONSTITUTE AGAIN THE DE-FACTO U-S-TAIWAN MILITARY ALLIANCE. IT WOULD CONSTITUTE AMERICAN EXTENDED DETERRENCE OVER TAIWAN. // END ACT // PROFESSOR SHAMBAUGH ADDS THAT IN ANY CASE, HE BELIEVES THAT FOR TECHNICAL REASONS T-M-D CANNOT SHIELD THE ISLAND AGAINST CHINESE MISSILES. // SHAMBAUGH ACT // WE ARE TALKING ABOUT MISSILES THAT HAVE A SIX MINUTE FLIGHT TIME FROM FUJIAN ACROSS THE STRAIT TO TAIWAN. ALSO, THEY HAVE A FLAT TRAJECTORY. FOR T-M-D TO WORK, MISSILES HAVE TO GO UP, ENTER THE LOW ATMOSPHERE AND COME DOWN. THEY CAN BE INTERCEPTED AT VARIOUS PHASES OF THAT TRAJECTORY. MISSILES FROM FUJIAN (WOULD) SKIM THE SURFACE OF THE WATER AND IMPACT AT THEIR TARGETS ON TAIWAN. // END ACT // THIS MONTH MARKS THE 20TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT -- WHICH WASHINGTON PUT INTO PLACE AFTER IT SWITCHED RECOGNITION FROM TAIPEI TO BEIJING. TAIWANESE OFFICIALS SAY THE ACT HAS HELPED MAINTAIN STABILITY IN THE REGION AND HAS HELPED THE ISLAND SUSTAIN CONTACT WITH CHINA. AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF HIATUS, CROSS-STRAIT TALKS ARE ONCE AGAIN PICKING UP STEAM. TAIWAN'S TOP NEGOTIATOR, KOO CHEN-FU, WENT TO BEIJING LAST YEAR. THE TOP CHINESE NEGOTIATOR, WANG DAOHAN, IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A RECIPROCAL VISIT TO TAIWAN LATER THIS YEAR. (SIGNED) NEB/HO/FC/KL 14-Apr-99 8:13 AM EDT (1213 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .