DATE=5/25/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43492
TITLE=CHINA SPYING / IMPACT
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  ASIDE FROM THE DEFENSE IMPLICATIONS OF THE CONGRESSIONAL 
REPORT ON CHINESE NUCLEAR SPYING, THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT 
LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS.  V-O-A'S GIL BUTLER
HAS MORE ON THAT IN THIS BACKGROUND REPORT. 

TEXT:  THE COX COMMITTEE REPORT COMES AT A TIME WHEN UNITED 
STATES RELATIONS WITH CHINA ARE STRAINED BECAUSE OF NATO'S 
BOMBING OF THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN BELGRADE AND CHINA'S RESPONSE 
TO IT.

CHINA SECURITY EXPERT BATES GILL, OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, 
BELIEVES THE ALLEGATIONS OF NUCLEAR SPYING WILL WORSEN 
SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS.

                     /// FIRST GILL ACT ///

         MOST IMPORTANTLY, I THINK, IT WILL STRENGTHEN THE 
         PERCEPTION IN THIS COUNTRY ABOUT CHINA AS A COUNTRY THAT
         CAN'T BE TRUSTED -- STRENGTHEN SUSPICIONS.  AND OVER IN 
         CHINA, THIS REPORT WILL STRENGTHEN THE VIEW THERE THAT 
         AMERICA IS INTENT ON FINGER-POINTING AND EVEN CONTAINING
         CHINA. SO IN BOTH CAPITALS, IN BOTH COUNTRIES, THE 
         IMPACT OF THIS REPORT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A GREATER 
         DOWNTURN IN THE RELATIONSHIP.

                         /// END ACT ///

FORMER AMERICAN AMBASSADOR TO CHINA JAMES LILLEY -- NOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE -- EXPRESSED 
HOPE THE LATEST REVELATIONS WILL  NOT  CAUSE PERMANENT DAMAGE.

                       /// LILLEY ACT ///

         WE KNOW WHAT IT IS TO HAVE A DOWNTURN IN THE 
         RELATIONSHIP.  THIS IS  NOT  GOOD, BUT I DO THINK IF WE 
         GET TOGETHER WITH THE WILL TO MAKE IT WORK AND 
         SUFFICIENT THRUST TO MOVE THE RELATIONSHIP AHEAD, WE CAN
         DO IT.  WE AMERICANS HAVE TO CLEAN UP OUR SYSTEM.  WE 
         WERE A GREAT BIG FAT SITTING DUCK CHOCK FULL OF MILITARY
         SECRETS AND IT WAS A SITTING TARGET THAT  NOBODY  COULD 
         RESIST. 

                         /// END ACT ///

RICHARD FISHER OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION CALLS THE FINDINGS OF 
THE COX COMMITTEE "A WAKE-UP CALL" [A WARNING SIGNAL].  HE SAYS 
AMERICA SHOULD RE-EVALUATE ITS FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA, 
REALIZING THAT IT COULD POSE A THREAT TO U-S SECURITY.

                       /// FISHER ACT ///

         I BELIEVE IT DOES.  ANY COUNTRY'S LONG-RANGE, NUCLEAR 
         BALLISTIC MISSILES COULD POSE A POTENTIAL RISK TO THE 
         UNITED STATES.  CHINA'S INTENTIONS CLEARLY ARE TO BUILD 
         A NEW GENERATION OF MODERN, MOBILE, AND THEREFORE MUCH 
         MORE DIFFICULT TO DETECT, LAND-BASED LONG-RANGE 
         BALLISTIC MISSILES.  THE NEW SMALLER WARHEADS WILL MAKE 
         IT EASIER FOR CHINA TO PUT MULTIPLE WARHEADS ON THESE 
         NEW BALLISTIC MISSILES.  CHINA COULD ALSO TAKE THESE NEW
         WARHEADS AND REFIT EXISTING, LESS MODERN I-C-B-M'S TO 
         MAKE THEM MUCH MORE CAPABLE AND THREATENING.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. GILL OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION SAYS THE INTELLIGENCE 
COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT CONCLUDES IT IS  NOT  CLEAR WHETHER CHINA 
HAS BEEN ABLE TO TURN WHAT IT HAS LEARNED INTO REAL MILITARY 
CAPABILITY.

                        /// GILL ACT ///

         ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY HAVE  NOT.  THAT ALL OF 
         THESE SO-CALLED SECRETS THAT THEY HAVE RECEIVED, HAVE  
         NOT  BEEN TRANSLATED AT PRESENT INTO ANY SIGNIFICANT 
         UPGRADE IN CHINESE MILITARY CAPABILITY.

                         /// END ACT ///

SOME OF THE MAIN FINDINGS OF THE COX COMMITTEE HAVE BEEN PUBLIC 
FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, BUT THE FORMAL RELEASE OF THE COMMITTEE 
REPORT SEEMS CERTAIN TO SET OFF AN INTENSIFIED DEBATE OVER 
AMERICAN SECURITY, AND OVER ITS RELATIONS WITH CHINA.   (SIGNED)

NEB/MGB/WTW

25-May-99 1:24 PM EDT (1724 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.