DATE=2/23/2000
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
TITLE=CHINA - TAIWAN
NUMBER=6-11696
BYLINE=ANDREW GUTHRIE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
TELEPHONE=619-3335
CONTENT=

INTRO:  There's a presidential election looming on 
Taiwan, on March 18th, and, as U-S editorial pages see 
it, that means it's saber-rattling time again in 
Beijing.

The Chinese Communist government - still frustrated at 
the pace of reunification talks - is threatening to 
eventually use force if need be, to politically 
reunite the island of Formosa with the mainland, just 
as Hong Kong and Macao have been reunited. The implied 
threats are not going over well with the U-S daily 
press.  W we get a sampling of reaction now from  
________ in today's U-S Opinion Roundup.  

TEXT:  China has just released a rather bellicose 
position paper on its view of relations with the 
island of Formosa, on which the government of Taiwan 
will soon hold a presidential election.  China 
essentially says it will  not  wait indefinitely for 
Taiwan to rejoin the mainland, either freely or by 
force. 

The long-standing U-S policy on the issue of the two 
Chinas is coming under increasing strain with this 
latest broadside, and The Washington Post says perhaps 
it's time for President Clinton to clarify U-S policy.

VOICE:  On the issue of China's claim to Taiwan, the 
      Clinton administration, like its predecessors, 
      has pursued a policy of "strategic ambiguity."  
      The United States will provide the increasingly 
      democratic island just enough political and 
      military support to deter China from taking the 
      island by force; but it will not provide so much 
      that Taiwan's leaders feel emboldened to declare 
      independence, which could provoke China to start 
      a war that would almost certainly involve 
      American forces.  This policy grows less tenable 
      as Taiwan gets more and more democratic and 
      China remains a dictatorship.   ... The U-S 
      response to China's latest challenge should be 
      shaped, at a minimum, by the need not to say or 
      do anything that China could present to the next 
      administration as U-S acquiescence in its new 
      policy.

TEXT:   That was the view of the Washington Post. As 
far as The Sun in Baltimore is concerned, the latest 
verbal assault, clearly aimed at intimidation, may 
have unintended consequences.

VOICE:  Beijing's new threat ... is likely to 
      boomerang as the last such effort did.  In 1996, 
      China fired missiles to scare Taiwanese out of 
      voting for Lee Teng-hui for president.  The 
      United States made a show of military support 
      and Mr. Lee won Taiwan's first free presidential 
      election.  Now China threatens invasion, not 
      only if Taiwan declares independence, but [also] 
      if it does not get on with negotiating 
      unification.  Mercifully, no deadline was 
      stated.  ... In fact, U-S intelligence holds 
      that Beijing lacks the capability to invade 
      Taiwan, while developing capacity to inflict 
      damage.  A war would derail China's economic 
      growth, the last thing it wants.  Taiwan's 
      growing investment on the mainland increases the 
      two Chinas' interdependence.  Beijing's 
      bellicosity may doom the prospect of permanent 
      normal trading relations with the United States.
 
TEXT:  So writes the Sun of Baltimore.  The tone of 
the Chinese white paper, from the State Council, 
China's cabinet, does not worry Hawaii's Honolulu 
Star-Bulletin which sees it as calculated bluster.

VOICE:  ... the policy paper was evidently timed to 
      affect campaigning for the election, but it's 
      unlikely to produce dramatic changes in the 
      candidates' positions.  Public opinion on Taiwan 
      is strongly opposed to unification - - and 
      Taiwan, unlike China, is a democracy, with free 
      elections. ... The new policy statement from 
      Beijing must be considered a tactic of 
      psychological warfare rather than an indication 
      of a real intention to initiate an attack on 
      Taiwan.

TEXT:  The Chicago Tribune is more upset and suggests 
a response for the United States.

VOICE:  China ... has upped the ante by lowering the 
      threshold for what it would consider a justified 
      use of force against Taiwan.  Now Taiwan not 
      only must forego any move toward independence, 
      but it must negotiate on Beijing's timetable.  
      That's unacceptable.  The Clinton administration 
      ought to respond in the most unequivocal manner 
      that threats of force, and the use of force 
      against Taiwan, also will not be tolerated.  So 
      far, White House reaction ...  hardly rises to 
      the level the occasion warrants. 

TEXT:  Calling China's white paper the latest incident 
in "a dangerous pattern," The New York Times suggests 
that the leaders in Beijing may have caused themselves 
more trouble than they realize.

VOICE:  China was wrong this week to threaten to use 
      force against Taiwan if the island's leaders 
      take too long to agree to reunite with the 
      mainland.  By coupling that threat with an 
      attempt to deflect the blame to Washington for 
      increasing military tensions over Taiwan, 
      Beijing may have damaged its chances of winning 
      Congressional backing for China's entry into the 
      World Trade Organization.

TEXT: From the heartland of America, the Kansas City 
Star is also concerned.

VOICE:  China's outrageous saber-rattling over Taiwan 
      calls for an extremely tough response from the 
      United States. ... It may well be time to send 
      in the carriers again, and to squeeze China in 
      other ways as well.  ... Past experience shows 
      that efforts to appease China are particularly 
      dangerous.

            /// OPT ///

TEXT: While in Boston, the nationally-distributed 
Christian Science Monitor sees this as a dangerous 
move on the world chess board.

VOICE:  Beijing has moved a big piece on the dangerous 
      gameboard of diplomacy with the United States.  
      It has told Taiwan, in essence, to seriously 
      negotiate reunification with the mainland or 
      face invasion.  This new, more-specific threat 
      of force could just be a tactic to influence 
      Taiwan's election of a new president on March 
      18th.  China wants voters on the island not to 
      vote for one candidate who has sought to 
      formally declare independence.  If that's the 
      case, China has learned a lesson from a 1996 
      incident in which it shot missiles near Taiwan 
      just before an election, provoking a military 
      standoff with U-S warships.  But the new threat 
      could be real, setting an unspecified timetable 
      for reunification.  That should force Washington 
      to be less vague in its public commitment to 
      Taiwan's defense. 

            /// END OPT ///

TEXT:  Lastly to Long Island, where New York's Newsday 
wonders about Beijing's timing.

VOICE:  Why is China doing this now, after signaling 
      for decades that it was willing to wait for 
      Taiwan to come back into the fold, just as it 
      waited a century for Hong Kong and even longer 
      for Macao?  In part, it's because China worries 
      that Taiwan is moving ever closer to a 
      declaration of independence, with the political 
      movement for sovereignty expected to gain 
      strength in the March ... [election]...

TEXT:  On that note, we conclude this sampling of U-S 
editorial opinion on the latest threats from China 
toward the government of Taiwan.

NEB/ANG/ 



23-Feb-2000 15:23 PM EDT (23-Feb-2000 2023 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.