DATE=2/29/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA CONGRESS - US EXPECTATIONS
NUMBER=5-45535
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:


INTRO:  The public meetings of the upcoming session of 
China's legislature are likely to be dominated by 
speeches about the country's economic progress and 
problems.  As V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports, American 
observers also expect the behind-the-scenes debates to 
deal with the issues of corruption, social disorder 
and Taiwan.

TEXT:  China's National People's Congress meets 
annually, usually in March.  About three-thousand 
delegates from all over China gather in Beijing to 
hear reports about the country's performance and 
approve new laws and plans for the coming year.

Generally, the delegates endorse whatever priorities 
Communist Party leaders have decided are important to 
assure the nation's economic prosperity and maintain 
social stability.

However, in recent years, the debates at the National 
People's Congress (N-P-C) have become more open.  And 
Asia specialist Douglas Paal says the votes have 
reflected this new trend of diverse opinion.

            /// PAAL ACT ///

      The N-P-C is more interesting every year, 
      because it has been more open every year.  The 
      debate is freer.  It's an important index of 
      change in China.  Having split votes -- you 
      don't have unanimous votes any more or rubber 
      stamps.  You have real debates.  The outcome may 
      be coaxed by the government in advance, but 
      there's plenty of room for dissent to be 
      expressed.

            /// END ACT ///

/// OPT ///  In the last two years, for example, as 
many as 20 to 40 percent of the delegates did not vote 
in favor of the reports by the country's chief 
prosecutor and the Supreme Court. /// END OPT ///

Douglas Paal is president of the Washington research 
group, Asia Pacific Policy Center.  He says the agenda 
for the National People's Congress usually emerges 
from meetings that Chinese leaders hold every August 
at the seaside resort of Beidaihe.

            /// PAAL ACT ///

      This past year the Beidaihe meeting had two very 
      important agenda items.  One was the slow growth 
      of the Chinese economy and the continued need to 
      dismantle state enterprises, and with that 
      rising unemployment and fear of social 
      instability.  The other big issue was the 
      management of the Taiwan crisis.

            /// END ACT ///

Mr. Paal says Taiwan is sure to be discussed behind 
the scenes when the legislature is in session.  The 
Congress convenes on March 5th and concludes a few days 
before Taiwan's presidential election on March 18th.  
China has warned Taiwan that it might use force if 
Taiwan's next administration tries to delay reunifying 
with the mainland.

Mr. Paal says the dominant issue at the N-P-C will be 
China's economy and how to proceed with the reform of 
inefficient state-owned industries and the financial 
sector.

            /// PAAL ACT ///

      The major issue will be whether to stick with 
      reform of the state-owned enterprises, the 
      banks, and whether to accelerate or slow down 
      the pace of reform.  That's going to be a big 
      issue because there's a lot of unemployment in 
      the northeast.  There's a lot of social dissent.

            /// END ACT ///

The issues of economic reform and rising unemployment 
are directly related to the issue of social stability 
-- something that greatly concerns the Chinese 
leadership.  Analysts say the ongoing crackdown on 
members of the Falun Gong spiritual movement reflects 
that concern.  Many Chinese, frustrated by economic 
dislocations and increasing crime, have turned to the 
exercise program and spiritual guidance offered by the 
Falun Gong movement.

Analysts say the National People's Congress is likely 
to look for ways to manage economic reform and prevent 
rapid increases in joblessness -- in order to avoid 
more social discontent.

/// OPT ///  China's National Bureau of Statistics 
recently said it expects the country's economic growth 
rate this year will match last year's rate of seven-
point-one percent.  But it also said there could be 
difficulties because of structural problems in the 
economy. /// END OPT ///

According to an Asia specialist at the National 
Defense University in Washington, Ronald Montaperto, 
China has said a new priority is to reform the non-
state sector of the economy.  And he expects to see 
some indication of that at the National People's 
Congress.

In addition, Professor Montaperto says there is 
pressure on the N-P-C to do something about the 
growing problem of corruption.

            /// MONTAPERTO ACT ///

      I would expect to see the N-P-C pass something -
      - if not actual legislation, then maybe some 
      kind of resolution or something -- that would 
      encourage the leadership in its effort to 
      continue to deal with corruption and all that.

            /// END ACT ///

Other analysts disagree, and say some delegates to the 
Congress may feel uncomfortable dealing openly with 
the corruption issue, because some of them may be 
implicated.

In January, the government revealed that corrupt 
officials had stolen 15-billion dollars from the state 
last year.  The most publicized recent scandal 
involves a huge smuggling and tax evasion operation at 
the port of Xiamen. (Signed)

NEB/SMN/JP




29-Feb-2000 11:07 AM EDT (29-Feb-2000 1607 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.