DATE=3/6/2000 TYPE=BACKGROUNDER TITLE=CHINA / TAIWAN / MILITARY NUMBER=5-45584 BYLINE=JIM RANDLE DATELINE=PENTAGON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: Top U-S intelligence officials say there is "high potential" for another military flare-up between China and Taiwan as Taiwan's elections (on March 18th) draw closer. Military experts take the tensions seriously, because China has millions of troops, thousands of combat aircraft, and hundreds of ballistic missiles. Analysts say Chinese forces probably could not mount an effective invasion of the island, but they could batter and perhaps intimidate the people who live there. V-O-A's Jim Randle reports from the Pentagon. TEXT: The director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Tom Wilson, says Taiwan is a "major potential flashpoint" in Asia. Vice Admiral Wilson told the Senate Armed Services Committee recently [last month] there is an "increased risk" of military incidents, as the opposing air and naval forces improve their readiness to fight or try to intimidate each other. But he says China probably will not risk a large-scale attack on Taiwan in the near future unless Taiwan declares itself independent of China. Beijing has regarded Taiwan as a rebellious province that must be brought under its rule, ever since the Communists won a civil war in 1949 and drove the defeated Nationalists into exile on the island. During Taiwan's last election four years ago, China tried to intimidate residents into voting against independence-minded candidates. Chinese forces "tested" missiles that demonstrated they could easily reach Taiwan's vital ports. Washington responded by sending two aircraft carriers and escort ships to nearby waters. If China were to attack, military experts say Beijing now has hundreds of ballistic missiles that could reach the island. The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, George Tenet, says China is moving still more missiles into place. /// TENET ACT /// China has been increasing the size and sophistication of its forces arrayed along the Strait, most notably by deploying short-range ballistic missiles. /// END ACT /// But Brookings Institution scholar and strategic expert Robert Suittinger says these conventionally-armed missiles are likely to have more psychological impact than real military significance. And the former National Security Council official says such an attack could backfire. /// SUITTINGER ACT /// The missiles are fine until you start firing them, and people realize that they do damage, but they don't cripple your economy, and they don't cripple your communications and so forth. And China's missiles are capable, but they aren't pin- point accurate. Once you start firing the missiles, you have to deal with the psychological counter-effect of the intimidation factor, which is the fist shaking at the sky saying, "We will never surrender." /// END ACT /// Mr. Suittinger says officials in Beijing think people on Taiwan have gotten "soft" [less militant] as they have grown more affluent, and that they can be intimidated into making major concessions if China launches a few missiles. But the former intelligence analyst says China is seriously underestimating the leadership and the people on Taiwan. He also says some officials on the island underestimate Beijing's determination to take control of Taiwan and reunite China. Mr. Suittinger and many other China watchers think missile strikes are China's only remotely realistic military option for the next few years. Greg May is a China scholar at the Nixon Center, a non-partisan institute that studies key U-S national-security issues, including policy toward China. He says China's two-and-one-half-million active-duty troops and 35-hundred combat aircraft seem intimidating, until you realize that Beijing lacks the ships and boats needed to transport a major military force across more than 100 kilometers of ocean to reach Taiwan, and that many of the planes in China's air force are older than their pilots. /// MAY ACT /// They are mainly the equivalent of the MIG- 21 and the MIG-19. I mean, these are planes that were flying in the 1950's. And it is a very similar story with the [Chinese] Navy. They have 70-odd submarines, but not many of those are really functioning. /// END ACT /// Many analysts say China's lack of specialized boats to land troops on hostile beaches would slow the invasion force and make it vulnerable to Taiwan's powerful, modern air force. One Pentagon official described the likely result as a "million man swim." Some military experts think China might force Taiwan to submit to rule from Beijing by blockading Taiwanese ports, stopping shipments of food and fuel to the island and strangling the island's robust economy. But Mr. May says China would need better-quality submarines and warships and more of them to sustain a blockade for a long period of time. China has some modern Russian- built submarines, and is getting a few advanced Russian-built destroyers. Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon says this new hardware strengthens Beijing's navy, but not enough to change the balance of power. Still, D-I-A Chief Tom Wilson and other intelligence leaders say China is steadily improving and modernizing its forces in ways that seem likely to cause growing concern in Taiwan in the next few years. So Taiwan's leaders are asking Washington to sell them better defenses against ballistic missiles, including an advanced version of the Patriot missile and (Aegis-class) destroyers with sophisticated radars, computers and missiles. The proposed arms sales are strongly opposed by Beijing and are controversial in the U-S Congress. But members of the House and Senate say every threat made by Beijing makes Congress more likely to approve the sale of these advanced weapons. (Signed) NEB/JR/WTW 06-Mar-2000 13:28 PM EDT (06-Mar-2000 1828 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .