DATE=3/7/2000
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=BLAIR CHINA (L-ONLY)
NUMBER=2-259939
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=

VOICED AT: 


INTRO:  The Admiral who commands all U-S military 
forces in the Pacific says China lacks the military 
means to successfully invade Taiwan. Military experts 
say Beijing's forces could rain missiles down on the 
rebellious island, but Admiral Dennis Blair says they 
probably won't do that any time soon.  V-O-A's Jim 
Randle reports from the Pentagon.



TEXT:  U-S Navy Admiral Dennis Blair says China has 
placed hundreds of medium range ballistic missiles 
along the coast where they could reach targets on 
Taiwan.  He says Beijing is adding about 50 missiles 
each year to the conventionally-armed forces facing 
Taiwan.  

Some Chinese officials have recently said Beijing 
might take military action against Taiwan if people on 
the island declare independence or make it clear they 
have no intention of ever reuniting with the  
mainland.

Admiral Blair has just returned from extensive talks 
in China, and he says leaders there see military force 
as `one of the tools in their kit.'  

But he says, at the moment, his intelligence experts 
are not seeing the kind of preparations that would 
likely come before a major attack on the island.

            /// Blair  act   ///

      The deployment patterns of China, and those of 
      Taiwan and those of the United states, are 
      fairly normal during this time.  There are some 
      small variations, but none of us is preparing 
      for major military moves, there, and that is 
      good. At the end of the day, the only way we are 
      going to solve this thing is by peaceful 
      resolution, the diplomatic way, not the military 
      way. 


            /// end act ///

Admiral Blair says China has a massive army, but lacks 
the special ships and boats needed to transport a 
major force across the more than 100 kilometers of 
open ocean that separates Taiwan from the mainland.

Admiral Blair says the serious transportation problem 
and - Taiwan's robust defensive forces --  make it 
unlikely that Chinese invaders could take and hold 
Taiwan for any length of time.

The Admiral says a major attack on Taiwan would cause 
a lot of deaths and injuries, and wreck the island's 
very successful economy.

But he says global reaction to such an attack would 
severely damage China's economy as well.

            ///  Blair act ///
 
      China's top priorities have to do with economic 
      and technological reform and taking care of its 
      people. And it (the leadership in Beijing) 
      knows that conflict would result in destroying 
      all of the progress it's making in joining the 
      world economy. 

 
            ///  end act  //  

Admiral Blair refused to speak about discussions in 
Washington about Taiwan's request for advanced weapons 
including Patriot missiles and Aegis-class warships.  
Beijing strongly opposes such arms sales to what it 
regards as a rebellious province that must be brought 
under central government control.  

When the Communists won the Chinese Civil war in 1949, 
the defeated Nationalist forces took shelter on 
Taiwan.  

Tensions have been growing between China and Taiwan as 
the date approaches for elections on the island(March, 
18th). China has said many times that a formal 
declaration of independence by Taiwan would spark 
military action by China.  During the last election 
four years ago, China tried to intimidate 
independence-minded voters by firing missiles near the 
island's ports.  (Signed)



NEB/PT  


 




07-Mar-2000 18:04 PM EDT (07-Mar-2000 2304 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.