DATE=3/19/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=TAIWAN ELECT - CHINA RESPONSE
NUMBER=5-45679
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=BEIJING
CONTENT=

VOICED AT:


INTRO:  China's reaction to the presidential election 
results in Taiwan is being seen by many observers as 
low-key and measured.  V-O-A Correspondent Stephanie 
Mann reports from the Chinese capital observers are 
struck as much by what China is not saying as what it 
has said. 

TEXT:  Virtually all of China's main newspapers Sunday 
carried news about the election in Taiwan.  Each of 
the papers seen in Beijing put a brief news report 
from the official Xinhua news agency in the lower 
right hand corner of the front page.  

The two-sentence article says the election for the 
leader of Taiwan was concluded and it lists the 
percentage of votes each candidate received.  

Each of the papers carries an accompanying article - 
also from the Xinhua news agency - that reports the 
joint comment issued late Saturday by the Taiwan 
affairs offices of the Chinese cabinet and the 
Communist Party.

Analysts and observers are examining that statement 
closely to see how China's leaders feel about the 
election of opposition candidate Chen Shui-bian as 
Taiwan's new president.  

The party and government say they will watch what Mr. 
Chen says and does and where he leads Taiwan's 
relations with the mainland.  The statement repeats 
Beijing's position that Taiwan is an inalienable part 
of China, adding that the election does not change 
that fact. 


Foreign observers point out the Chinese statement is 
noticeably less belligerent than official comments by 
Beijing in the days leading up to the election.  The 
reaction statement makes no mention of the possible 
use of force, although it does say Taiwan independence 
in any form is absolutely impermissible.

China has not changed its policy on Taiwan, which was 
outlined a few weeks ago in a lengthy White Paper.  
Beijing still reserves the right to use force if 
Taiwan declares independence, if foreign forces 
interfere in Taiwan's reuniting with the mainland, or 
if Taiwan's leaders indefinitely delay talks on 
reunification.  

But, by not repeating those threats, observers say 
leaders in Beijing apparently decided to put forward a 
more cautious, low key attitude as they wait to see 
how Mr. Chen acts in the coming days. 

China's official statement also says the "one-China" 
policy is the precondition for peaceful reunification 
of Taiwan and mainland China.  And it says China is 
willing to exchange views on cross-Straits relations 
with all Taiwan political parties who approve of the 
"one-China" principle.

Some observers interpret that as an olive-branch of 
sorts, because it does not carry the stipulation that 
reunification must be under the formula of one-
country, two systems - the model that was used for 
Hong Kong and something China has said should apply to 
Taiwan as well.  However, Chen Shui-bian has not said 
he embraces the idea of one China. 

Mr. Chen's Democratic Progressive Party was founded 
with the goal of independence for Taiwan.  Mr. Chen 
has tried to distance himself from that idea, but 
foreign analysts say China's real reaction may depend 
on how far Mr. Chen is willing to move from his 
party's platform. 

Many ordinary Chinese are unaware of the Taiwan 
election and its potential impact.  But many educated 
people in Beijing have expressed concern about the 
possibility that conflict might arise following the 
election of Chen Shui-bian, and they say they do not 
want a war. 

As China decides what action it may take, leaders in 
Beijing are likely to keep in mind the important 
economic relations across the Taiwan Straits.  Taiwan 
businesses have invested an estimated 30 billion 
dollars on the mainland, and two-way indirect trade is 
substantial. 

Nonetheless, the issue of Taiwan's reunification has 
special significance in Beijing.  Now that Hong Kong 
and Macao have both returned to Chinese rule, Taiwan 
is the last Chinese territory still not under 
Beijing's control.  

President Jiang Zemin is widely believed to want 
Taiwan's reunification with the mainland to be his 
legacy.  That is not likely to be completed in three 
years' time, before his term as party leader expires 
in 2002 and his term as president runs out in 2003.  
But foreign observers say Mr. Jiang may hope the 
reunification process can be set in motion before he 
steps down.   

Most international news reports describe the Taiwan 
election as the first peaceful democratic transition 
of the presidency.  Power has transferred from the 
Kuomintang Nationalist Party, which has ruled Taiwan 
for the last 50 years, to an opposition party which at 
one time was considered subversive. 

However, China has not publicly reported this aspect 
of the Taiwan election.  China avoids the word 
president, saying instead Taiwan is choosing a new 
leader.  Yet some foreign observers point out the 
parallel comparison is probably not lost on Chinese 
leaders.  The Communist Party has also been in power 
for 50 years, but does not allow opposition political 
parties to contest in democratic elections. (Signed)

NEB/SMN/ 



19-Mar-2000 03:13 AM EDT (19-Mar-2000 0813 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.